The Official Off-Season Thread of the Texas Rangers

[ddhulett]

To answer your question...there's not another ONE player that will be able to provide those stats. But for the money we're talking, we could probably get a couple/three players that can provide great production in a lineup.

I doubt you'll find many people that think those stats don't warrant that kind of money. You'll find plenty of people that don't trust Josh to consistently put up those kind of numbers though.

1) Josh isn't known for making it through full seasons. On average, he makes it 3/4 of a season and this is while he's been a young player.

2) You do have to factor in the drugs. He says he wants a 5 year deal, minimum. I believe he can pull off 3 years at a high level, but then I believe the drug/alcohol use effects will weigh in.

3) I don't trust him not to fall off the wagon again. It's always something, if not the drugs. We have caffeine, eyes that hurt, fidelity issues, and so on. All of these are distractions and I believe that he was a huge one coming down the stretch last year.

When you add all this up...no, I want no part of him. If he'll sign a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option...sure. That's not going to happen though.

I agree with a lot of your points but...

When our offense was rolling it was because of Josh, he made us the best offense in baseball. Yeah he might miss some games but he's also putting up 120 RBI in the small amount that he plays so I'll take it.

I'm afraid once he walks our offense is going to go down the drain. For the money you pay him you can get a few other guys but their just other guys who don't add up to Josh's production. You can get those guys through minor league system instead.

It's like giving up Dirk Nowtizki for Al Horford and a couple no names.

[Skizzik]

In reply to you Stipe:
1. Murphy isn't Hamilton, but he is vastly underrated.
Let's put this in perspective...the last three years he has batted .291, .275 and .304. He is a notoriously slow starter, which is the biggest knock I have on him (batting .224 through May in 2011 and .162 in April 2010). But yet, he does what so many Rangers fail to do, GETS ON BASE. I don't get why Rangers fans don't want MORE players like Murphy.

I'd take Murphy over Kinsler any day of the week (who has batted .286, .255 and .256 the last three years). Or Young who we all know was ridiculously awful last year and, unlike Murphy, can't play D (that's right, Murphy can play D, baseball reference puts him at 6 runs saved over an average fielder last year and 4 the year before...despite the limited playing time he gets...projected over a full season they estimate he would have saved 11 runs over average last year). Or Nelly who has batted .318, .263 and .260 over the last three years and who actually was 13 runs saved below average in 2012 and 5 below average in 2011.

No, Murphy will never put up 30 home runs in a season like Nelly or Ian...but, in what sport do people not want such a fundamentally sound player? He may not be as exciting to watch, but neither is Tim Duncan. Murphy plays excellent defense, hits for average and never complains. We need more Murphy, not less.

2. I just trust Daniels to figure this one out. I could name people all day, but I'm not in JD's position. I don't know who's being offered what or what players JD is interested in. I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade for a lefty bat, but which one is beyond me. Given a choice, I'd be willing to make a serious play for Cargo...we have the assets and Colorado isn't going anywhere.

3. Once again, another underrated player in Perez. I would absolutely give him the chance to start. First off, the dude is only 21. Secondly, everyone only wants to remember his bad outings and not his good ones.

Like his win in his first start...5 1/3 IP versus the A's only giving up 2. Or 6 IP and 2 ER versus Minny. Or 6 IP and 1 ER versus Boston. Or 5 IP and 2 ER versus TB. Or 4 1/3 IP and 0 ER versus Seattle. In fact, he had far more good starts than bad. As a rookie...at age 21. He has absolutely earned the right to start and I think it would be foolish to think otherwise.

That being said, we need pitching depth. If an injury were to happen without signing anyone, we'd be in trouble. I expect, should we fail to land Greinke, we will likely try to sigh Lohse.

4. Please no on Martin. The last thing this team needs (as you may see by my first point) is another player who can't bat. Not that catchers are generally stellar offensive players, but I'd much rather take Napoli and his power over Martin who hasn't hit over .250 in the last four seasons and has only broke 20 home runs once (21 in 2012...in the Yankees little league sized park).

I'd love to see a trade here. But the safe move and the best way to preserve assets for other, much more pressing needs, is to resign Napoli. Our owners can afford it, no doubt. If they're willing to spend the money, it's the smart move. It won't cost us anyone and will give us a solid catcher for a couple more years.

[Skizzik]

I agree with a lot of your points but...

When our offense was rolling it was because of Josh, he made us the best offense in baseball. Yeah he might miss some games but he's also putting up 120 RBI in the small amount that he plays so I'll take it.

I'm afraid once he walks our offense is going to go down the drain. For the money you pay him you can get a few other guys but their just other guys who don't add up to Josh's production. You can get those guys through minor league system instead.

It's like giving up Dirk Nowtizki for Al Horford and a couple no names.

The bolded part is honestly a terrible argument. Basketball talent drops off a huge amount from stars to secondary players. Let's say we replace Josh with a player that can equal his batting average, but hits for far less power (I'm not worried about defense, because Josh's D has been on the decline, chances are we'd actually improve defensively in range with someone like Gentry in center, but we'd lose the arm strength, so I'd call it a wash over a season).

Anyways, so we lose Josh's power. But if we then take that money and upgrade say two other batters (like our DH and say...second base (which may cost us no money if we go with Profar))...and their combined total improvement plus Josh's replacement = Josh's home run total, but the two new players improve their position's batting average...we could actually improve by letting Josh go. We'd have the same number of home runs AND more hits.

Meanwhile, in your basketball comparison, you're taking the best scorer on a team...the go to guy in the clutch, the guy who can't be guarded because he's 7'1 and fades away...and replacing him with a solid center, but not a number one scoring option. You'd still need a number one scorer. You don't have to have a number one offensive option in baseball. If you have a lineup of .300 hitters versus a lineup of .250 hitters and one Josh Hamilton...the .300 hitting lineup is much more likely to string hits together and get wins.

The best Rangers offensive lineups were the ones that were balanced with power and average. Power alone gives you the Yankees lineup, you'll score, but it's easy to shutdown in the playoffs. I'd rather have 9 good batters than 1 great one (or even 2 great ones) and 7 or 8 average or below average ones.

That same idea doesn't work in basketball. A one star team (see 2011 Mavs) can win...a no star team (see the Denver Nuggets since the Melo trade) can't. You need at least one guy you can truly depend on.

[stipe1280]

In reply to you Stipe:
1. Murphy isn't Hamilton, but he is vastly underrated.
Let's put this in perspective...the last three years he has batted .291, .275 and .304. He is a notoriously slow starter, which is the biggest knock I have on him (batting .224 through May in 2011 and .162 in April 2010). But yet, he does what so many Rangers fail to do, GETS ON BASE. I don't get why Rangers fans don't want MORE players like Murphy.

I'd take Murphy over Kinsler any day of the week (who has batted .286, .255 and .256 the last three years). Or Young who we all know was ridiculously awful last year and, unlike Murphy, can't play D (that's right, Murphy can play D, baseball reference puts him at 6 runs saved over an average fielder last year and 4 the year before...despite the limited playing time he gets...projected over a full season they estimate he would have saved 11 runs over average last year). Or Nelly who has batted .318, .263 and .260 over the last three years and who actually was 13 runs saved below average in 2012 and 5 below average in 2011.

No, Murphy will never put up 30 home runs in a season like Nelly or Ian...but, in what sport do people not want such a fundamentally sound player? He may not be as exciting to watch, but neither is Tim Duncan. Murphy plays excellent defense, hits for average and never complains. We need more Murphy, not less.

2. I just trust Daniels to figure this one out. I could name people all day, but I'm not in JD's position. I don't know who's being offered what or what players JD is interested in. I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade for a lefty bat, but which one is beyond me. Given a choice, I'd be willing to make a serious play for Cargo...we have the assets and Colorado isn't going anywhere.

3. Once again, another underrated player in Perez. I would absolutely give him the chance to start. First off, the dude is only 21. Secondly, everyone only wants to remember his bad outings and not his good ones.

Like his win in his first start...5 1/3 IP versus the A's only giving up 2. Or 6 IP and 2 ER versus Minny. Or 6 IP and 1 ER versus Boston. Or 5 IP and 2 ER versus TB. Or 4 1/3 IP and 0 ER versus Seattle. In fact, he had far more good starts than bad. As a rookie...at age 21. He has absolutely earned the right to start and I think it would be foolish to think otherwise.

That being said, we need pitching depth. If an injury were to happen without signing anyone, we'd be in trouble. I expect, should we fail to land Greinke, we will likely try to sigh Lohse.

4. Please no on Martin. The last thing this team needs (as you may see by my first point) is another player who can't bat. Not that catchers are generally stellar offensive players, but I'd much rather take Napoli and his power over Martin who hasn't hit over .250 in the last four seasons and has only broke 20 home runs once (21 in 2012...in the Yankees little league sized park).

I'd love to see a trade here. But the safe move and the best way to preserve assets for other, much more pressing needs, is to resign Napoli. Our owners can afford it, no doubt. If they're willing to spend the money, it's the smart move. It won't cost us anyone and will give us a solid catcher for a couple more years.

1- I somewhat agree with what you say about Murphy. He is underrated and could easily be a starting outfielder. However, I don't like him as our "replacement" for Josh. Unfortunately, I don't believe our offense is built for the kind of player Murphy is, which is to say, we don't play small ball very well. If we didn't have Ian and Nellie swinging for the fences every at-bat, could find a reliable lead-off guy, then protect them with Beltre and a real power DH/1B type, then maybe...but as is, I don't see it.

2- We have to trust JD...he's the only one that can make the deals. As an armchair GM though, I'm not 100% sold on things this season. I simply don't like how the market is developing (which isn't JD/Rangers fault). I don't like the fact we'd have to give up Andrus/Profar for Upton, I don't like that we aren't going to give up Profar for Price (which is what they'd want because that's who makes sense for them salary-wise) and I'm just not seeing us as a fit for a guy like CarGo (Olt would be the starting point probably, but they really need MLB ready pitching...which I don't see how we can afford).

3- I still like Perez also. But he is only 21, hasn't even had success at AAA and might not be 100% ready even this year. I don't mind giving him a chance if he seems ready, but I don't think he's ready to play a major role on a potential championship team either. With the window shutting (might be shut already honestly), I just don't see how we can take the time to nurture young players and win it all at the same time.

4- 100% in agreement with you here. I don't like Martin or any of the FA's this season honestly. Personally, the best catcher out there is Napoli, who I'd like to see re-signed. I don't mind a deal either, but I'm not sold on Arencibia being that much of an upgrade (he's better than Soto, but slightly below Napoli I think) to the position and worth whatever we might have to trade to get him. Who else is available? Not much. Maybe D'Arnaud...but he'll cost quite a bit.

Just breaking it all down...

A) We're playing to win a championship this season - We need to sign/trade for proven players that can make that happen now.

B) We're playing to remain competitive and win a championship in the next five years - We need to sign/trade for young players and give our young players (Profar, Perez, etc.) a chance to play now.

C) We're rebuilding - We need to let our higher priced guys walk and only look at signing young players and giving our young players a chance to play now.

We could easily fit into any one of those categories as I see it.

A- We sign Greinke, we find a power bat to replace Josh, we re-sign Napoli, we possibly trade a guy like Andrus for a legit star.

B- We let Josh walk, we let Napoli walk, we try to make a deal for Justin Upton/David Price

C- We let Josh walk, we let Napoli walk, we wait to get Michael Young off our books, we keep Andrus, we deal for guys like D'Arnaud and play Profar/Perez everyday.

I have no idea what the goal is at this stage, but I do know that the AL is becoming much more competitive. If we want to win it now, there's a TON of work to be done and I'm just questioning if that can be pulled off this year or if realistically, we're looking at another shot a year or two from now.

[stipe1280]

The bolded part is honestly a terrible argument. Basketball talent drops off a huge amount from stars to secondary players. Let's say we replace Josh with a player that can equal his batting average, but hits for far less power (I'm not worried about defense, because Josh's D has been on the decline, chances are we'd actually improve defensively in range with someone like Gentry in center, but we'd lose the arm strength, so I'd call it a wash over a season).

Anyways, so we lose Josh's power. But if we then take that money and upgrade say two other batters (like our DH and say...second base (which may cost us no money if we go with Profar))...and their combined total improvement plus Josh's replacement = Josh's home run total, but the two new players improve their position's batting average...we could actually improve by letting Josh go. We'd have the same number of home runs AND more hits.

Meanwhile, in your basketball comparison, you're taking the best scorer on a team...the go to guy in the clutch, the guy who can't be guarded because he's 7'1 and fades away...and replacing him with a solid center, but not a number one scoring option. You'd still need a number one scorer. You don't have to have a number one offensive option in baseball. If you have a lineup of .300 hitters versus a lineup of .250 hitters and one Josh Hamilton...the .300 hitting lineup is much more likely to string hits together and get wins.

The best Rangers offensive lineups were the ones that were balanced with power and average. Power alone gives you the Yankees lineup, you'll score, but it's easy to shutdown in the playoffs. I'd rather have 9 good batters than 1 great one (or even 2 great ones) and 7 or 8 average or below average ones.

That same idea doesn't work in basketball. A one star team (see 2011 Mavs) can win...a no star team (see the Denver Nuggets since the Melo trade) can't. You need at least one guy you can truly depend on.

Yeah, I agree with you here 100%. Comparing baseball and basketball is a case of apples vs. oranges.

First off, there isn't an offensive player out there that will dictate wins and losses. A pitcher can, but offensively, it can't be done on a regular basis.

Secondly, I think people forget the starpower we've had in the past which never led to a title. Guys like Juan, Pudge and ARod, to name a few, never got us over the hump. I'm not discrediting them for some of the successes we did have, but it just goes to show that one offensive player like them (not to mention a few of them at the same time), doesn't win championships.

I don't know who should replace Josh at this stage...we need a lefty bat for one thing. I also don't know if Profar is ready to be a replacement power-wise at this stage. I don't really see our solution on the FA market, though Greinke (not an offensive replacement, I know) would significantly upgrade us in terms of WAR over Josh. It'll be a tough decision in terms of the trade market also, because every conversation will start with guys like Profar and Andrus.

Still, I see possibilities to upgrade/maintain the team over Josh, while ridding this team and clubhouse of his constant issues.

[northsider]

Since you guys are actually a good team I am sure minor BS like this doesn't matter but, I guess the Cubs and Rangers revisited the Soto trade and swapped Brigham and Loux.

[Young2Kinsler]

Since you guys are actually a good team I am sure minor BS like this doesn't matter but, I guess the Cubs and Rangers revisited the Soto trade and swapped Brigham and Loux.

I think Texas see's Bringham with a slightly higher ceiling, with a little more injury risk. The Cubs see Loux as a more reliable low risk option at this point. Although rumor is Loux's stuff took a step back this season.

[Young2Kinsler]

The Hamilton market seems to be crumbling. Some team may still come in and blow them away, but I think he is going to have to lower his contract expectations.

[asmarks18]

At the end of the day he will be with the Brewers.

[Young2Kinsler]

At the end of the day he will be with the Brewers.

MAYBE if he's willing to take a 3 yr deal, but they just don't have the money to spend.

[stipe1280]

I've heard a few rumors about Josh landing in Baltimore. I think their most pressing need is going to be pitching, though...a Sanchez or possibly Lohse.

[mike_noodles]

Jays fan here. For obvious reasons the Rangers and Jays seem to line up for trade. Just wanted to see what the fans here think of Colby Rasmus, JP Arencibia and to lesser extents Ricky Romero and John Buck. Is there a trade to be done if the Jays are looking at upgrading their rotation?

[Young2Kinsler]

Jays fan here. For obvious reasons the Rangers and Jays seem to line up for trade. Just wanted to see what the fans here think of Colby Rasmus, JP Arencibia and to lesser extents Ricky Romero and John Buck. Is there a trade to be done if the Jays are looking at upgrading their rotation?

JPA and Romero for Holland is something both teams might consider.

[parman4818]

I would be ok with trading Holland and prospect for JPA and Ricky Romero

[Cosmic_Canon]

Would you guys convert Beltre to 1st, if the Mets give the Rangers Dickey; Wright, Johan Santana(Mets eat the 2013 salary) for Holland; Gentry, Olt, and Jorge Alfaro?