Official Offseason Thread

[Fly]

u can think that all you want, but he's not a 12 mil player. next thing y'all will try to convince me of is that uggla is worth 13.

I like how when we show some evidence that he is in fact worth 12 million you just basically say "no he isn't because i think so".

[chipurmunki]

rofl, i need more than a handful of un-contextualized numbers to say, 'o wow, how awesome is this!!! that's a 12 mil player EASY.' you throw those stats like they are 'obvious' proof to your position. when i look at his career #s, i don't see 12 mil. i don't like his attitude... just bring back freakin escobar if we want that. or melky. i don't recall saying he's a terrible player, i recall saying he's not worth 12. if he's the best we can do in the outfield, for 12 freakin mil, i'd as soon keep prado in lf.

[Braves_Fan_RSD]

u can think that all you want, but he's not a 12 mil player. next thing y'all will try to convince me of is that uggla is worth 13.

Last 4 seasons based on WAR (something based in actual data and not an opinion) Here is Swisher's worth

2009: 14.4 M
2010: 16.6 M
2011: 17.1 M
2012: 17.7 M

Then there is this:

So, the contract Swisher needs to be pointing to isn’t Werth’s 7/126, but instead Ethier’s 5/85, and then he can argue from there that he should get a premium because Ethier’s deal was signed in-season rather than in free agency. Even though he was only a few months away from free agency, he still divested some personal risk by signing early, and presumably took a little bit of a discount in order to be rid of the injury/performance risk over the final three months of the season.

That probably leaves Swisher angling for 6/100 but seeing offers more in the 5/90 range. And, given what k +3 win players in their early-30s have been going for in free agency as of late, that sounds just about right. If the bidding gets intense, Swisher might be able to crack $100 million, especially if he goes for maximizing years over AAV. If that nine digit mark is really important to him, I could potentially see him landing a 7/100 deal, where a team agreed to tack on an extra year or two at fairly low marginal cost just to get him signed.

While none of us saw Jayson Werth getting 7/126 either, the reality is that Werth was a better player than Swisher is now, and even factoring in inflation, there’s not much of a reason for any team to pay Nick Swisher that kind of money. He’s a good player, a guy who can help you win, but he’s also an aging corner outfielder without elite offensive skills. Unless the market just goes bananas again, I don’t see Swisher getting anywhere close to Werth’s deal.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...swisher-worth/

[ATL#22]

Swisher is a really nice player but if Fangraphs is thinking 5/90 (18 per) that is TOO much. He hasn't been worth that once over the last 4 and when you factor in decline it would be horrible. The highest I would go for Swisher is 5/75 (15 per).

[SB75]

While I don't 100% agree with Chipurmunkie's argument, I do agree that IMHO Nick is not werth 12 mil a year. Haven't we learned from Uggla? When we start paying non superstar players that kind of money on a 90-95 million dollar pay-roll, it is a mistake.

I also don't understand where the 12 million number is coming from being that the reports have been that he want a Jason Werth type deal.

[ATL#22]

Uggla, at the time, was more then worth that contract. He was coming off a 4 WAR season and had hit .287.369.508. If that had been a walk year for him he could have have gotten a 5/90 deal.

[chipurmunki]

someone said something about 12 a few posts ago. obviously, if i don't think he's worth 12, 17-18 is out of the question.

[chipurmunki]

Uggla, at the time, was more then worth that contract. He was coming off a 4 WAR season and had hit .287.369.508. If that had been a walk year for him he could have have gotten a 5/90 deal.

i think war is an overrated stat... you can make the argument that cabrera shouldn't get the mvp cuz of trout's better war numbers, and that's a damn fool's argument. at the time, uggla was worth it. but i can see wren throwing him in a trade for someone as he's grossly underachieved. bottom line? walks+'effort' do NOT = 13 mil.

[westside]

Uggla, at the time, was more then worth that contract. He was coming off a 4 WAR season and had hit .287.369.508. If that had been a walk year for him he could have have gotten a 5/90 deal.

Yea Uggla had 30+ homers, 100 rbi's, and hit .287. So he was defitnitely worth it. I still think he can really help us out in a big way, just needs to cut down on the k's

[SB75]

someone said something about 12 a few posts ago. obviously, if i don't think he's worth 12, 17-18 is out of the question.

Oh I agree with that...... Just proving a point I made a long time ago about fans being willing to ignore the obviouse for players they want. in this case it's the money. ALL REPORTS I HAVE SEEN, have him asking for a lot more and the term Jason Werth type contract keeps coming up. If any one has a report that has him asking for less please post it.........

Funny thought.... Some of the same fans that say we can't pay Hamilton 60 mil over 3 years (20 mil per), say we can pay Swisher 15-18 mil per over 5 years?

[SB75]

Yea Uggla had 30+ homers, 100 rbi's, and hit .287. So he was defitnitely worth it. I still think he can really help us out in a big way, just needs to cut down on the k's

Dan is and was also a 2B man and several baseball people said 30 is around the age 2B men decline and that the Braves may regret that deal. He also was not a good defensive 2B man to start with. He came off a career year and I felt then as I feel now.... FW jumped the gun a little to appease Chipper, Mac, and F-Gon who where all very much in favor of Mr. Uggla by signing him to that ext. Good trade/bad signing, should have let him walk. As well as many Braves fans who like Mr. Swisher has had the eye and drool of Braves fans for years ( Just like Uggla did). So saying he was definitley worth it, is a stretch IMHO....


Also WAR is a very bad way to judge how much you should pay a player. Some players are simply worth more than their on field preformance do to their popularity and what they do at the ticket booth. Some players are worth more for what they do in the club house. Some are worth more for their work with younger players. Some are worth more do to being able to toe the company line so to speak. So bringing up WAR with so many other variables that WAR doesn't begin include, to say how much a player should make or what he's worth, is simply ridiculous to me. Stats do matter, but some just take WAR way to seriously............ This was not ment as an attack on you or anyone else. Just how I feel about the WAR crush on this site. Sorry for ranting.

[chipurmunki]

i'm sure swisher is asking for a werth deal. he's grossly overpaid as well. the nats are retarded like that.

the way i see it, i want wren to stay away from the 'big names.' arod, wright, ICHIRO... y'all have to be kidding me. what about players that actually play up to their price tag like headley? i'm fine trading for headley and moving prado to 2nd. our defense would be sick and headley was pretty darn good this year. as for lf, i'm sure we can swing hanson+uggla to the twins for one of their sexy OF.

[SB75]

i'm sure swisher is asking for a werth deal. he's grossly overpaid as well. the nats are retarded like that.

the way i see it, i want wren to stay away from the 'big names.' arod, wright, ICHIRO... y'all have to be kidding me. what about players that actually play up to their price tag like headley? i'm fine trading for headley and moving prado to 2nd. our defense would be sick and headley was pretty darn good this year. as for lf, i'm sure we can swing hanson+uggla to the twins for one of their sexy OF.

I don't mind FW going after the big name. However, I don't think Swisher is a big name. I think he is a good player that will get paid like a great player, therefore we should stay away from him.

As far as Headly, I'm not against it. However I think you may be going a little over bored. Yo don't want Wright, who has proven to be a star! But you want Headley who has only had 1 year with an .800+ OPS, which happened to be last year and will be in need of an ext as well. Not to mention he will be more exspensive prospect wise than Wright or A-Rod. He had never even hit more than 12 hr's in a season before this year. So you have to ask yourself, was it a fluke? PHD? Or did he just come into his own? Like I said I'm not against him, but I don't understand how you could be for him and against Wright? Wright is only one year older, has accomplished so much more, and wouldn't be as exspesive prospect wise.

[Bravo95]

I want everyone to sit back and think about what's happening in this thread. Some of you guys are essentially saying that Nick Swisher should be the highest paid hitter on our roster in 2013 and beyond. Let that soak in.

[chipurmunki]

i don't like wright cuz i'm so used to hating him. not a good reason not to go after him, i know, but i see him commanding a huge damn contract. i dunno, i'd rather pay less to headley and still retain bourn than lose out on bourn and someone else cuz wright would command so much $$.