Official Offseason Thread

[westside]

Francisco's defense is avg?? I don't think so.

Theres average, plus, and plus plus. Simmons would be plus plus, prado would be plus, and Francisco would be average. Not saying he doenst make great plays from time to time, but factor in his range plus fielding and his defense is average. maybe a few ticks above.

[westside]

Not stocked with all stars? SF and STL represented over half of the starting NL lineup in the all star game w/ Posey, Pablo, Furcal (injured, but still an all star), Melky (we will disregard him), and Beltran. Add their bench players on all star team (Molina, Freese, and Holliday), and between the two they had about 1/3 of the position players. This doesn't even take into account the all star caliber pitchers of each of these teams. Verlander is easily the best pitcher in baseball and SF has a couple studs that can be 100 mil guys.

Obviously, all star appearances aren't the best way to judge a team, but let's not pretend that these teams are all starting 6-7 role players with only a star or two mixed in.

We all know the all-star game is a popularity contest. Look at how many players didnt go, who had the same numbers as the ones who did. But of course we arent talking about pitching. we were talking lineups. STL doesnt have a lineup like the NYY, and they are still playing, and Detroit, besides Fielder and Cabrera, dont have the big contract players that LAA,LAD(current),NYY, and Boston(preseason) has. Bottom line, dont take it literally as if im saying there are no all stars on their team, but im saying there arent any Josh Hamiltons, Robinson cano, or Albert pujols state of mind players through out their lineups. My point is you dont have to trade for the big name players just get to the next level, as STL and NYY are evidence of that fact

[westside]

You can be against Juan playing everyday..... But F-Gon said last week he would get a chance to compete for the 3B job. So again if you are making it an open contest, what does that say about Prado's long term future? They also tried to trade him to KC and Col..... So yes they shopped Prado, no doubt about it. Early est have Prado making more than 9 mil as a free agent. And I'm sorry, I love Prado..... But A-Rod at 5 mil per is a better value than Prado at 9 mil plus, unless A-Rod completely falls off the earth. A-Rod's off year with a .783 ops is not far behind Prado's good year of .797. So it truly depends on how far you see A-Rod falling.

Didn't see that tweet from DOB, I will check for it.

I know fredi said Juan will get a shot at 3b, im saying prado is the better option as far as with the bat and defense. Prado at 9 mil is a 3b,LF,2b,SS,1b. A-Rod at 5 mil is a declining 3b, and occasional SS. So value isnt a discussion here, and dnt forget prado's ops isnt expected to be up there with A-rod's, someone who regularly hits 25+ HRs, so thats a bit misleading. Prado is good for 10-15 homers, 60-75 rbi's, and a .300+ avg. A-rod, normally, is a 25+ homer guy, 90+ rbi's, and .290+ avg, so the whole ops thing isnt a real comparison for a power and minimal power guy. Alex is worth a phone call no doubt, but i dnt think we should be expecting him to come here and we win a WS. Thats just my take, but i've been a braves fan for about 15 years, and i know big name players, come and go, so its best to get them before they decline or you will be wondering what if.

[devildogdco]

even if we can have the Yanks pay for everything but 5 mil a year lets look at ops and see if in 2017 if thats a player you want for 5 mil.

2009: .965
2010: .933
2011: .847
2012: .783

.0455 avg drop per year

2013: .738
2014: .693
2015: .648
2016: .603
2017: .558 (this would rank between Hinske and Hudson this year)

Not a 5 mil player

[Braves_Fan_RSD]

even if we can have the Yanks pay for everything but 5 mil a year lets look at ops and see if in 2017 if thats a player you want for 5 mil.

2009: .965
2010: .933
2011: .847
2012: .783

.0455 avg drop per year

2013: .738
2014: .693
2015: .648
2016: .603
2017: .558 (this would rank between Hinske and Hudson this year)

Not a 5 mil player

Sorry but this is a very illogical post, the reason his drop is so much is because his top was so high.

[iamaj]

I think A-Rod bottoms out around .700. Maybe .675.

[devildogdco]

I think A-Rod bottoms out around .700. Maybe .675.

So you think he stops declining after next year. not going to happen... this is a slipery slope and he is hitting in a "hitters park" for those years. No way he is a solid player for the next 5 years in Atl.

[Braves_Fan_RSD]

A-Rod is a wild card, a lottery ticket per se. Even in a down year (by his standards) he still put up a respectable .783 OPS and 18 HR. He destroyed LHP .308/.410/.514/.924 which is something we severely need, I would not be opposed at all if we can get him for 5 mil.

[devildogdco]

Sorry but this is a very illogical post, the reason his drop is so much is because his top was so high.

So the fact that he dropped .032, then .086, then .064 over the last 3 seasons? He is falling from his "so high" and his momentum is going to crater trough his "700 floor"... I laugh if you think he is going to magicly going to settle in as a 700 ops hitter (I know you didn't throw that number out there iamaj did) which would have ranked 10th on our team this year... No reason giving up specs of any kind for a crashing airplane of a player. What do you really expect Arod to be if he comes here? and not just 2013, I am talking about 2013 through 2017 when we would stop paying him.

[devildogdco]

A-Rod is a wild card, a lottery ticket per se. Even in a down year (by his standards) he still put up a respectable .783 OPS and 18 HR. He destroyed LHP .308/.410/.514/.924 which is something we severely need, I would not be opposed at all if we can get him for 5 mil.

would you be willing to pay 5 mil for him 5 years from now and then his HR bonuses that he rates when/if he passes 660, 714, 755, and tying and breaking the major league record? Thats 6m a milestone.

[Braves_Fan_RSD]

So the fact that he dropped .032, then .086, then .064 over the last 3 seasons? He is falling from his "so high" and his momentum is going to crater trough his "700 floor"... I laugh if you think he is going to magicly going to settle in as a 700 ops hitter (I know you didn't throw that number out there iamaj did) which would have ranked 10th on our team this year... No reason giving up specs of any kind for a crashing airplane of a player. What do you really expect Arod to be if he comes here? and not just 2013, I am talking about 2013 through 2017 when we would stop paying him.

Chew on this.

Player A drops from

1.032
.971
.919
.847


A .0463 drop per season, so by your logic this player should then have seasons of

.801
.755
.709
.663
.617

This Player actually put up

.968
1.005
1.029
1.044
.818

over those 5 season

This player was Chipper Jones, not saying that Arod won't decline there is a chance that may happen, there is also a chance he could bounce back and be an above average player (not elite like he once was), im just saying your logic is flawed, too many factors can create fluxes in OPS to say that this will be his numbers going forward. Most likely he will be around the .800 OPS mark for much of the contract, and finding a Chipper replacement that can put up Chipper type numbers for 5 M is a win in my book. That being said in case of decline the Braves may have to be willing to eat 5M a season incase of sharp decline hence the lottery ticket.

would you be willing to pay 5 mil for him 5 years from now and then his HR bonuses that he rates when/if he passes 660, 714, 755, and tying and breaking the major league record? Thats 6m a milestone.

No this would have to be paid by the Yankees, also if he breaks the record he would have to hit 27 HR per season which means some pretty good years.

[Braves_Fan_RSD]

Just to add another note, lets say that Arod does become HR champion and we have to pay all the incentives. That would be 25M for the contract plus another 18M for the incentives. So if he maxed them out thats 43M over 5 years, or 8.6M a season for a guy who is hitting you 25-30 HR a season for 5 years.

[devildogdco]

Chew on this.

Player A drops from

1.032
.971
.919
.847


A .0463 drop per season, so by your logic this player should then have seasons of

.801
.755
.709
.663
.617

This Player actually put up

.968
1.005
1.029
1.044
.818

over those 5 season

This player was Chipper Jones, not saying that Arod won't decline there is a chance that may happen, there is also a chance he could bounce back and be an above average player (not elite like he once was), im just saying your logic is flawed, too many factors can create fluxes in OPS to say that this will be his numbers going forward. Most likely he will be around the .800 OPS mark for much of the contract, and finding a Chipper replacement that can put up Chipper type numbers for 5 M is a win in my book. That being said in case of decline the Braves may have to be willing to eat 5M a season incase of sharp decline hence the lottery ticket.





No this would have to be paid by the Yankees, also if he breaks the record he would have to hit 27 HR per season which means some pretty good years.

I see nothing in his game that shows me that he is going to stop this decline. But hey if you do we can agree to disagree. would not want to spend any money and give up a spec for him.


On another note the site that shall not be named says the Yanks have said they will offer Swish a qualifing offer. So just keep in mind the people who want him in LF (like me) he will cost us our 1st round draft pick.

Cheers!

[devildogdco]

Just to add another note, lets say that Arod does become HR champion and we have to pay all the incentives. That would be 25M for the contract plus another 18M for the incentives. So if he maxed them out thats 43M over 5 years, or 8.6M a season for a guy who is hitting you 25-30 HR a season for 5 years.

That would be good, do you see him being able to put up power numbers at his current age and once you take him out of the new yankee stadium?

[Braves_Fan_RSD]

That would be good, do you see him being able to put up power numbers at his current age and once you take him out of the new yankee stadium?

I honestly dont see him breaking the record, but I do see him hitting 20-25 a season. New Yankee stadium is a LHH dream, very neutral for a RHH.

I see him as a .275/.350/.450/.800 OPS over the 5 years, basically Chipper with a little more power.