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  1. #1
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    Predict the Phillies 2013 Free Agent Signings

    Here is my prediction for whats going to happen:

    Outfield Signings:
    Nick Swisher 3 year 45m
    Angel Pagan 3 year 23m

    Starting Pitchers:
    Shaun Marcum/Anibal Sanchez/Dan Haren - I think one of the 3

    Reliever:
    Mike Adams 2 year 10m or Jason Frasor 1 year 4m

    Utility Bat:
    Marco Scutaro 1 year 4m
    Juan Pierre/Scott Hairston 1 yr. 2m

    Total Cost for this year: $49m

    They COULD trade for Headley instead of Keeping Ruf id be surprised though.

    Here is my Projected Roster

    CF Angel Pagan - 7m
    RF Nick Swisher - 14m
    2B Chase Utley - 15m
    1B Ryan Howard - 20m
    SS Jimmy Rollins - 13m
    C Carlos Ruiz - 5m
    LF Domonic Brown - 1m
    3B Darin Ruf - 600k

    Starting Rotation:
    Cole Hamels - 19.5m
    Cliff Lee - 25m
    Roy Halladay - 20m
    Shaun Marcum/Dan Haren/Anibal Sanchez - 10m
    Kyle Kendrick - 4.5m

    Bullpen:
    Jonathan Papelbon - 13m
    Mike Adams/Jason Frasor - 5m
    Jeremy Horst - 600k
    Phillipe Aumont - 600k
    Josh Lindblom - 600k
    Michael Stutes - 600k
    Tyler Cloyd/Antonio Bastardo - 600k

    Bench:
    UTIL Freddy Galvis - 600k
    UTIL Marco Scutaro - 4m
    OF John Mayberry Jr. - 600k
    OF Scott Hairston/Juan Pierre - 1.5m
    C Eric Kratz - 600k

    That puts them at 181.6M about 3.5m over the Cap Limit. I'd also like to see them take a shot on Jorge De La Rosa

  2. #2
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    Ruf playing 3B is a bad idea.

    Swisher said he wants a Werth deal, so doubt he takes less than 4 years. Pagan is also kind of a platoon player(cant hit lefties). I think 7.6mil a year is too much for him
    Last edited by sexicano31; 10-02-2012 at 05:20 PM.

  3. #3
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    Also, Haren has a team option. I feel like they would pick it up

  4. #4
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    You think they would pick up 15.5m for a guy whos been a mess all year? (Haren) I mean we havent really seen Ruf play too much, and Pagan and Bourn have very similar numbers

    Bourn: 620 AB .276/.349/.743 95/9/57/40 153 K's 69 BB

    Pagan: 600 AB .287/.336/.775 94/8/56/29 97 K's 47 BB

    Pagan actually strikes out less.
    Bourn hit 9 HR this year, but he hit 7 in a combined 3 years before that. So whether he can sustain those power numbers remains to be seen
    Bourn saw a decline to 40 SB to his lowest total in 3 years
    Pagan actually given a full season looks to average around 10 homers a season, has a more consistent batting average, career Pagan is higher and OBP is almost dead even.
    Finally Pagan hit .272 vs. lefties (Bourn hit .273) and hit .294 against righties (Bourn hit .277)

    Lets keep in mind the contract difference: Pagan will make 7-8, Bourn will make 15-16
    Last edited by Ruthian; 10-02-2012 at 05:39 PM.

  5. #5
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    And also for Ruf keep in mind that Galvis and Scutaro are in the background can combine to be atleast an average 3b, and maybe someone pops up at the deadline

  6. #6
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    Haren, yes they would pick up that option. You just dont pick up an option for a pitcher who has proven to be a very good pitcher because of one year. I believe they changed something with his mechanics(something like he couldnt keep them consistent. Dont quote me on that) and he is doing much better this month(september/october).

    29.1 IP, 3.07 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 7.1 SO/9, 4.60 SO/BB. So they did something and hes doing much better

    FWIW, Bourn plays elite CF defense(honestly dont know about Pagan), and he has favorable L/R splits. Not saying Id rather have Bourn, just wouldnt give Pagan 7.5 mil a season. I actually like what Pagan has done the past few years

    Ruf, Im pretty sure hes no where near athletic enough to play 3B. Could be wrong.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ruthian View Post
    And also for Ruf keep in mind that Galvis and Scutaro are in the background can combine to be atleast an average 3b, and maybe someone pops up at the deadline
    I would like Scutaro. I thought they should have gotten him last year. But ya know, Wigginton is much better

    Semi-related: Phillies hired Bart Braun as special Assistant to RAJ. He was a scout for the Rays

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by sexicano31 View Post
    I would like Scutaro. I thought they should have gotten him last year. But ya know, Wigginton is much better

    Semi-related: Phillies hired Bart Braun as special Assistant to RAJ. He was a scout for the Rays
    That means

    Ruf Howard and Mayberry for Longoria

    Galvis, Cloyd and Aumont for BJ Upton


    Props.LgnD.

  9. #9
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    Post game crew and the Announcers all agreed they would take Ruf over Brown next year... I really wish I had a Job like them so I can give my thoughts on why they are morons.

    What was meant for me will be Mine once again... THE CHAMP OF CHAMPS IS BACK

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    Post game crew and the Announcers all agreed they would take Ruf over Brown next year... I really wish I had a Job like them so I can give my thoughts on why they are morons.
    dont they know that Ruf is a year older than Brown and only had success in the minor leagues when he was much older than the competition?

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by sexicano31 View Post
    dont they know that Ruf is a year older than Brown and only had success in the minor leagues when he was much older than the competition?
    Well apparently from their Logic he will give our line up some much needed power and he ALREADY has 9 RBI...No lies this was said.

    What was meant for me will be Mine once again... THE CHAMP OF CHAMPS IS BACK

  12. #12
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    I honestly am looking forward to the Day when we Trade him away and he becomes very good. It sucks because it is really going to happen...Charlie is already talking about a brown platoon next year... Can he really succeed like that?

    am not 100 percent sure on this right here because they mentioned something about it during the game.

    What was meant for me will be Mine once again... THE CHAMP OF CHAMPS IS BACK

  13. #13
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    whatever. I dont expect them to handle prospects well anymore. Partially because they never had to since they traded them all away

  14. #14
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    Here is what I expect over the offseason...as much as anything can be expected.

    -Michael Bourn or BJ Upton to roughly a 5/80 contract
    -Acquire Chase Headley for Vance Worley, Trevor May, MLB ready RP (Aumont or DeFratus), B+ spec (maybe Biddle?)
    -Ervin Santana to a ~3/39 contract (Santana is a guy who could get the Edwin Jackson treatment this offseason too)
    -Acquire a setup RP (could be anyone) AAV roughly 4.5.

    Of course, Ruben is hyper aggressive when filling out his roster. I would like to see him continue to be aggressive with CF and 3B, but it makes more sense to sit back and wait out the SP/RP markets.
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

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  15. #15
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    I am sory if a little long but I was bored at work

    This is my end of year/going into the off season analysis-obviously nobody knows what the Phillies are going to do.

    C-Ruiz is coming off a year where if he played the whole season he may have got some consideration for mvp. He is in an option year for 5 million so there is no way the Phillies don’t pick it up. As a backup, Kratz had a great year but tailed off late. I was very pleased with his defense and clutch hitting so around 500-800k resigned is appropriate. Joseph and Valle sit in the wings. Lets hope one of them have a monster year in the minors next year and maybe contribute in 2013 but more likely 2014.

    1B-Howard’s offseason conditioning will be huge and yes his contracted is inflated but we are stuck with him. With a full year I still see at least 30hr’s with 100 plus rbi’s but yes you still have a lot of strikeouts, bad defense, a low batting average. The thing that scared me is the lack of walks after he came back from injury. Wiggington, Ruf, Nix, and Mayberry can all spell Howard whether a tough lefty is pitching; he needs a day off or injury (again)

    2B-I am very encouraged by Utley’s return. I think the fact that he works pitchers so tough and gets on base shows he can still play. Hopefully he can be ready at the start off spring training with no offseason plans ahead. Galvis can sub in with great defense but little to offer at bat but give Chase a breather when needed.

    SS-Everybody trashes Rollins but he plays great defense, still scored 100 runs and when he is hot he can carry this team. His indiscipline at the plate and sometimes not hustling drive me crazy. He should not be your leadoff hitter but there are no better replacements available.

    3B-Polanco had a good career but obviously he is not an option. He should retire. A Franzden/Galvis platoon maybe an option but between here and CF this is where we need to get a Right-handed hitter to split up Howard and Utley to balance our lineup. I would have hoped Franzden is for real but his career numbers show an average player at best. I know Asche and Franco are in the minors but Franco being the better prospect is years away. I can’t see the Mets not picking up Wright’s option so there are not many other options. I think prying Olt from Texas looked like a lost cause or it already would have happened. My recommendation is working out a trade with Rockies for Tulowitzki. Granted this is pipe dream in many ways and everybody is going to trash me but it is my wish. There are many question marks to this. Yes, he is always hurt! Yes, I know there is no way they trade him! Yes, I know he would have to change positions where he is already great at! Maybe we could pry him away. I am not even going to speculate what to give and I don’t want to clear out the farm but there nobody there in free agency so a trade needs to be made.

    LF-I think you have to see what you have in Ruf here. Granted, it is only a small sample size so there are a lot of positives and a lot of questions but you have Mayberry, Nix, Wiggington and Schierholtz to play if it doesn’t work out. I thought Pierre had a great year and maybe he can be resigned as a backup. Cespedes or Kubel would have been really nice here as last year’s offseason signing but too late for that type of hindsight

    CF-This is the another major question mark spot and there are a lot of options out there but not many I am too fond of spending a lot of money on like Bourn, Upton, etc. There is no way I can see us spending 25 million a year for Hamilton. Ideally I think if Tyson Gillies could step up that would be amazing but there may be too many question marks. I think he is a year away and just needs to play more. I would have liked him to steal more in the minors with a better success rate. Hopefully he can step up and win the position in spring training other wise I think you are looking at Mayberry here full time. Another option is bringing back Victorino at a one year deal for no more 7-8 million. I really want a .300 hitter who plays good defense and will play small ball to bat in 2-hole and bats right-handed but so does every team in baseball

    RF-My ideal is to have Gillies win the CF and let Mayberry and Brown platoon. I think both showed they can be adequate for the salaries they make.
    Bench-I actually think you have a solid bench. I think most of them were exposed while Utley and Howard were out for too long of an extended stretch but with Kratz, Franzden, Wiggington, Galvis, Martinez (who should only be called up if an emergency), Schierholtz, Mayberry/Brown and maybe Pierre or even another minor league deal for Pete Orr to contribute whenever injuries occur. Obviously that is too many for the bench but Galvis and Martinez could start the year in Lehigh to get at bats and who knows who gets hurt. As many quality backups the better based on all these players ages and history of injury

    Lineup: 1. Rollins SS, 2. Mayberry/Brown RF, 3. Utley 2B, 4. Tulowitzki 3B, 5. Howard 1B, 6. Ruiz C, 7. Ruf LF, 8. Gillies CF or if you sign a free agent you bat him second and move the RF platoon back to 8 spot
    Batters Salaries: based off Cot’s Baseball contracts:
    Starters: C Ruiz-5million, 1B Howard-25, 2B Utley-15, 3B Tulowitzki-10, LF Ruf 600k CF Gillies-600k RF Brown-600k
    Bench: C Kratz-600k, IF Franzden-800k, IF Wiggington-4million, OF-Mayberry-600k, OF Schierholtz-2.125, UT Nix-1.375
    =66.3Million (approximately)

    Starting Pitcher’s-
    1P-Hamels, 2P-Lee, 3P-Halladay, 4P-Kendrick, 5P-Worley-Your obvious question marks are Worley coming off an injury and Kendrick’s consistency. The main concern is what do you have with Halladay? This may be his last year as he may not hit his incentive clause extending his contract so I guess we will see what we have here. This is definitely an area of strength and with an improvement in the other areas should push us into the playoffs next year. You do have some depth in Pettibone and Cloyd and some future pitchers, if they develop and are not traded in Biddle, Martin and May.

    Bullpen and Closer-Obviously you are set here at closer with Papelbon and have a ton of young arms available just need them to develop. A lot of people said Papelbon is overpaid for but I am ok with what you get. Many people are crying for one solid set up who gave you what Madson did for a couple of years. I disagree, I think you have enough top prospects that need to develop themselves and establish there roles. You have a long list: Bastardo (who had a great second half), Lindblom, Rosenberg, Aumont, DeFratus, Horst, and Diekman which is good because whoever is on the roster in April may not be there in October but at least you have plenty of depth and viable options. Don’t forget you have Contreras (probable should retire and be bought out), Herndon and Stutes coming off injury that are all major league adequate may be able to contribute. Depending on how Bonilla pitches in spring training he may be able to contribute. You have other guys in system that may not be any good but add depth such as Savery, Brummett, Schwimer or Raul Valdez

    Pitchers Salaries:
    Starters: Hamels-25million, Lee-25, Halladay 20, Kendrick 4, Worley 500k
    Bullpen: Papelbon-13, Bastardo-1.5, Lindblom, Horst, Diekman, Aumont, DeFratus all 500k each
    =91.5million (approximately

    Overview: As for the Tulowitzki trade I was thinking After reviewing several reports on there minor league system they are looking for 1B, 2B, OF and of course everybody is looking for pitching. I would offer a package of like one of Trevor May, Ethan Martin or Jesse Biddle, Sebastian Valle or Tommy Joseph-whomever you like less, one of relievers like Bonilla who is really hot lately (probably a top 3 prospect in Phillies organizational rankings) DeFratus and another low prospect in A ball. They have a lot of top prospect middle infielders in low A ball like Stephen Walding, Roman Quinn and Greene (not Larry)

    This gives you total salaries of give or take of about 158 million which is way under the luxery tax threshold. If people fell need be we still could go out and get a Bourn or Upton, Victorino or Pagan, Grady Sizemore or the Phillie killer Scott Hairston. The ideal option is trading for Ellsbury but I don’t see anyway that happens. You even have enough o spare if you feel the need to go get a setup man like Mike Adams or even an incentive laden contract for Madson depending on how much of a bad taste he has for Amaro
    I think only a few adjustments are needed to put this team back into the playoffs and just the simply subtraction of Chad Qualls give you at least 5 more wins and probably in the playoffs this year. I am sure I am going to get trashed but let me know what everybody thinks. I am too lazy to proofread this as I am tired from writing it all so I apologize for typographical or grammar errors.
    Last edited by bdinella; 10-03-2012 at 03:59 PM.

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