2013 Red Sox 1B options

[bagwell368]

If we land Myers I think trading for Mourneau would be a smart move.

Depends what he costs in specs.

[Nomar]

Depends what he costs in specs.

As always.

I think our next 1B will likely be a lefty if we acquire Myers. And I don't think Napoli for four years would be necessary even with our lower payroll.

[greenwell39]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomar
If we land Myers I think trading for Mourneau would be a smart move.

Depends what he costs in specs.

If we trade Lester, I don't see a point in trading any specs.

[gustofer1]

If we trade Lester, I don't see a point in trading any specs.

Lester is probably our most realistic shot at having a meaningful season. I'd rather have him than take on Sanchez.

[gustofer1]

Almost zero. The FO has tried to extend him at least 3 times over the past 3-4 years. His agent, Boras doesn't play that.

Given Ells apparent dislike of Boston (so I read), and the horrific crap he went through in '10 over his rib injury I wouldn't like Boston either.

My odds for his fate in Boston is:

1. Traded at the deadline 40%
2. Traded this off season 30%
3. Arb'd and we get a pick 20%
4. Arb'd and accepts the 1 year 7%
5. Signs a long term extension/deal here 3%

I like those odds. I'd want to see him bring in at least one SS or SP who's a year away

[bagwell368]

I like those odds. I'd want to see him bring in at least one SS or SP who's a year away

Unlike Lester, Ells seems to have have "leave" stamped all over his forehead. He's oft injured, he's going to cost a huge amount of money.

Even if JBJ turns out to be a .255/.335/.375 #9 hitting CF with very fine D, given what he's going to cost us for his first 5 ML seasons, his cost/benefit is hugely above what I expect out of Ells here or elsewhere.

I still think Andrus is a great fit here. If as part of the deal we can clamp a 6 year extension to cover his late arb years on the guy, it would be very good. IMO he's worth more then Ellsbury in that scenario. Fine give them Iglesias + Wilson, or make it a 3 way for whatever Iglesias can bring Texas.

That's the sort of trade I want - for an actual proven young player.

[AI4]

Nats acquire Span, moving Harper and Werth to the corner OF's. They still have Morse who would shift over to 1B. Laroche's market just took a big hit.

[Nomar]

Damn they gave up Meyer just for Span.

[bradyoverrated]

Unlike Lester, Ells seems to have have "leave" stamped all over his forehead. He's oft injured, he's going to cost a huge amount of money.

Even if JBJ turns out to be a .255/.335/.375 #9 hitting CF with very fine D, given what he's going to cost us for his first 5 ML seasons, his cost/benefit is hugely above what I expect out of Ells here or elsewhere.

I still think Andrus is a great fit here. If as part of the deal we can clamp a 6 year extension to cover his late arb years on the guy, it would be very good. IMO he's worth more then Ellsbury in that scenario. Fine give them Iglesias + Wilson, or make it a 3 way for whatever Iglesias can bring Texas.

That's the sort of trade I want - for an actual proven young player.

Why are we all so quick to assume Ellsbury will make a HUGE amount of money? Isn't he - strictly from an "odds to be a bust" perspective - about as risky as Josh Hamilton?

I mean, his injury history is no secret.

In the real world, whatever he makes will be HUGE, but let's suppose he plays 162 games, producing his career average in all respects:

.297 BA
.349 OBP
.442 SLG
.791 OPS
16 HR
53 SB
73 RBI

now, thats a solid year indeed. but In my opinion that production warrants $15M/year IF a player regularly plays 145+ games/yr.

I'm sure Borass will push the salary envelope the best he can, but unless Ellsbury has another MVP-caliber season, I don't see him topping $15M/yr (which i still think is too much for the risk he brings).

[Greenmonster24]

Look what with Upton and Crawford and Werth and Bay got paid and wait to see what Bourns get and you see that Ellsbury going get a big deal and with Bradley I agree we can just get a fill in until he is ready and trade him at the meetings with the market suddenly with Spam traded lot smaller as Upton signed to.

[bagwell368]

Why are we all so quick to assume Ellsbury will make a HUGE amount of money? Isn't he - strictly from an "odds to be a bust" perspective - about as risky as Josh Hamilton?

I mean, his injury history is no secret.

In the real world, whatever he makes will be HUGE, but let's suppose he plays 162 games, producing his career average in all respects:

.297 BA
.349 OBP
.442 SLG
.791 OPS
16 HR
53 SB
73 RBI

now, thats a solid year indeed. but In my opinion that production warrants $15M/year IF a player regularly plays 145+ games/yr.

I'm sure Borass will push the salary envelope the best he can, but unless Ellsbury has another MVP-caliber season, I don't see him topping $15M/yr (which i still think is too much for the risk he brings).

To me, for his injury history, $15M a year IS huge money. If he gets 5 years+ x $15M+, it's way too much for what he is, and what he brings.

Clearly if he repeated 2011 in 2012 and 2013, he'd be going for ~$25M per.

Only if we offer him a deal to lock in the draft pick and he can't get a good long term deal will he be back in Fenway.

[SirHizz]

To me, for his injury history, $15M a year IS huge money. If he gets 5 years+ x $15M+, it's way too much for what he is, and what he brings.

Is that so? I assume if Ellsbury can be signed for the amount of 15m for 5 years (Upton-money), the Red Sox would do it in a heartbeat and so would I.
You know how free agency works, 2011 will still be present next year, no matter what. Same with Hamilton, you could argue his 8 WAR season was an outlier, but people act like it's his typical performance-level.
Ellsbury only needs to have a "good" year in order to get paid. He'll surpass Upton easily. Question is if he gets something above the 140m of Crawford. Depends on next years numbers, but 100m is a lock if he doesn't get injured again.

[bagwell368]

Is that so? I assume if Ellsbury can be signed for the amount of 15m for 5 years (Upton-money), the Red Sox would do it in a heartbeat and so would I.
You know how free agency works, 2011 will still be present next year, no matter what. Same with Hamilton, you could argue his 8 WAR season was an outlier, but people act like it's his typical performance-level.
Ellsbury only needs to have a "good" year in order to get paid. He'll surpass Upton easily. Question is if he gets something above the 140m of Crawford. Depends on next years numbers, but 100m is a lock if he doesn't get injured again.

Ellsbury would be terrible at that sort of contract in Boston IMO. Much wiser to cash him in and see if JBJ, or someone else we have after that can do the job for the minimum.

I was talking Ellsbury exceeding Crawfords deal the day Crawford signed it, but his history has put that in doubt, if he missed another 50 games this year, he won't get > $20M.

Ellsbury got over his issues with leading off finally, but a guy with declining fielding and base running speed and doubles power sounds way too much like Crawford to me.

Whatever team signs him just means that's one less team we have to compete with for OF FA's. I'm done with him.

FG WAR$:

$5.1M (127 PA)
$19.1M
$10.9M
-$0.6M (84 PA)
$42.4M
$6.7M (323 PA)

Next September he'll be 30 years old. A six year contract for a brittle guy with an agent that insists he does not play through injuries entering his hitting decline at age ~34, and fielding and base running decline earlier? Plus he isn't a leader that anyone can tell. No.

[SirHizz]

Well Bags, I am not arguing against you. But you brought up the 15m for 5 years and to be honest, that's something I'd do, but it's a moot point since Ellsbury will never sign such a deal. If worst comes worst, he takes a 1 year deal in order to boost his value. I just can't see it.
And I am with you, for 100m+ and 6+ years, you gotta let him go. We have our designated successor in the minors. Let's flow with it.

[Cronin]

Damn they gave up Meyer just for Span.

I think you're thinking of the wrong Meyer? Not Wil Myers but Alex Meyer was traded to the Twins. Seemed like a good deal to me..