Bill James Projections for Jays

[Matt-the-great]

I am an avid reader of Fangraphs, which I highly recommend to any and all baseball fans, and they recently released the Bill James projections for all players. I collected the projections for the Jays main players and some interesting ones.

These projections are generally overly optimistic and I trust most other projection systems more then BJ, but these are currently available and i am bored, so here we go!

(I ordered the line-up and rotation as I would do myself)

1. Jose Reyes (S): 295/352/434 - 39 sb
2. Brett Lawrie (R): 289/342/465 - 21 sb
3. Melky Cabrera (S): 292/348/432 - 14 sb
4. Joey Bats (R): 259/377/529 - 39 hr
5. Edwin E-5 (R): 271/359/504 - 31 hr
6. Adam Lind (L): 272/329/460 - 22 hr
7. J.P Arencibia (R): 232/278/451 - 23 hr
8. Colby Rasmus (L): 237/312/427 - 23 hr
9. Emilio Bonifacio (S): 275/336/350 - 45 sb

Anthony Gose: 253/324/369 - 46 sb

1. Josh Johnson (R): 3.21 era, 3.08 fip, 2.85 bb/9
2. Mark Buehrle (L): 3.78 ea, 4.10 fip, 1.80 bb/9
3. Brandon Morrow (R): 3.47 era, 3.48 fip, 9.19 k/9
4. Ricky Romero (L): 4.43 era, 4.46 fip, 0.92 hr/9
5. J.A Happ (L): 4.30 era, 4.25 fip, 8.05 k/9

Casey Janssen: 3.18 era, 3.28 fip, 1.85 bb/9
Sergio Santos: 3.52 era, 3.26 fip, 11.11 k/9
Esmil Rogers: 3.98 fip
Darren Oliver: 2.95 era, 3.14 fip



I am thrilled we obtained 3 switch hitters this off season as i have always felt we lacked left handed hitters. We also brought in valuable OBP abilities, which i feel has been the biggest detriment to our offense. Also, we are going to be so incredibly dangerous on the bases this year!

I feel Romero can easily out-perform that bad projection, and while he is not the pitcher he appeared to be in that strong 2011, he is certainly not the mess he was last season.

[wagnall]

I am an avid reader of Fangraphs, which I highly recommend to any and all baseball fans, and they recently released the Bill James projections for all players. I collected the projections for the Jays main players and some interesting ones.

These projections are generally overly optimistic and I trust most other projection systems more then BJ, but these are currently available and i am bored, so here we go!

(I ordered the line-up and rotation as I would do myself)

1. Jose Reyes (S): 295/352/434 - 39 sb
2. Brett Lawrie (R): 289/342/465 - 21 sb
3. Melky Cabrera (S): 292/348/432 - 14 sb
4. Joey Bats (R): 259/377/529 - 39 hr
5. Edwin E-5 (R): 271/359/504 - 31 hr
6. Adam Lind (L): 272/329/460 - 22 hr
7. J.P Arencibia (R): 232/278/451 - 23 hr
8. Colby Rasmus (L): 237/312/427 - 23 hr9. Emilio Bonifacio (S): 275/336/350 - 45 sb

Anthony Gose: 253/324/369 - 46 sb1. Josh Johnson (R): 3.21 era, 3.08 fip, 2.85 bb/9
2. Mark Buehrle (L): 3.78 ea, 4.10 fip, 1.80 bb/9
3. Brandon Morrow (R): 3.47 era, 3.48 fip, 9.19 k/9
4. Ricky Romero (L): 4.43 era, 4.46 fip, 0.92 hr/9
5. J.A Happ (L): 4.30 era, 4.25 fip, 8.05 k/9

Casey Janssen: 3.18 era, 3.28 fip, 1.85 bb/9
Sergio Santos: 3.52 era, 3.26 fip, 11.11 k/9
Esmil Rogers: 3.98 fip
Darren Oliver: 2.95 era, 3.14 fip



I am thrilled we obtained 3 switch hitters this off season as i have always felt we lacked left handed hitters. We also brought in valuable OBP abilities, which i feel has been the biggest detriment to our offense. Also, we are going to be so incredibly dangerous on the bases this year!

I feel Romero can easily out-perform that bad projection, and while he is not the pitcher he appeared to be in that strong 2011, he is certainly not the mess he was last season.

Based on these numbers, seems we are no further ahead starting Rasmus over Gose. Which means dealing Rasmus is not out of the question.. But all this is speculative numbers that you don't use to base who's best to move and who to keep.

But an interesting read

[KidDraco]

I doubt Romero has an ERA over 4. He just had a down season and we don't know when he started playing while hurt. I think an era of 3.7-3.8 seems reasonable IMO.

[Matt-the-great]

Based on these numbers, seems we are no further ahead starting Rasmus over Gose. Which means dealing Rasmus is not out of the question.. But all this is speculative numbers that you don't use to base who's best to move and who to keep.

But an interesting read

Absolutely, these are purely speculative, and there are numerous superior projection systems out there that i look forward to examining.

[Matt-the-great]

I doubt Romero has an ERA over 4. He just had a down season and we don't know when he started playing while hurt. I think an era of 3.7-3.8 seems reasonable IMO.

He is certainly capable of a 3.7ish ERA, although he really needs to cut down on the walks.

[a_roid_3333]

I doubt Romero has an ERA over 4. He just had a down season and we don't know when he started playing while hurt. I think an era of 3.7-3.8 seems reasonable IMO.

yeah i expect Ricky to revert to his career norm, which is sub 4.00 ERA. His 1 off year is not indicative of Ricky as a pitcher.

[Sanyo]

Predicting what a player will do is about as worthless as this expired Quiznos coupons staring me in the face!

[Korac]

Lol, man, I would be more than happy if some of those projections were accurate (I'd be very satisfied with an almost .800 OPS and 20+ HRs from Lind tbh).

Should be fun to watch this team. Man I hope injuries don't mess things up too badly this year....

[Billyen]

Predicting what a player will do is about as worthless as this expired Quiznos coupons staring me in the face!

Totally agree. Why would this guy even bother.

[Korac]

Totally agree. Why would this guy even bother.

Durr, he's a 'guru'!

[SpiderSilva]

Four switch hitters.. Reyes, Cabrera, Bonafacio and Izturis.

[Billyen]

Durr, he's a 'guru'!

What did he predict last year? This is what I like to see.

[wamco]

Always high on hitters

[Matt-the-great]

Predicting what a player will do is about as worthless as this expired Quiznos coupons staring me in the face!

How so? There is a science associated with predicting statistical performances, while it is far from perfect, it is by no means useless.

[rapsjaysfan88]

If our top 3 give us those numbers I'll be happy an no way m. Beurle has an era under 4 in the al east.