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View Poll Results: Is Beltre HOF worthy?

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  • Yes

    50 45.45%
  • No

    60 54.55%
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Results 211 to 222 of 222
  1. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by flea View Post
    Lmao you're dreaming if you think Beltre is better than Chipper. I know it's because he played for the Red Sox
    Wrong again. I was writing about Beltre before he signed in Boston.

    (I'm pretty sure you used to maintain that Boggs was better than Chipper)
    I had Boggs as better when Chipper was mid career, which is reasonable. I do not promote Boggs nor have I for many years. But hey who cares about truth when you are trying to criticize someone, eh?

    but that's some awkwardly slavish devotion to WAR and I don't think anyone who spent any time impartially observing their careers would agree with. GMs don't pay guys based on the publicly available WAR calculations of defense and I see no reason to observe WAR totals as rigidly as you clearly do - especially for non-premium positions.
    I lost the text, but if you toss out rookie years and go with the best 16 years of each players rWAR, there are 2 ties, and 2 wins for Chipper and all the rest go to Beltre.

    Non premium? 3B is as valuable as CF. The order goes:

    C, SS, 2B,CF/3B, RF/LF, 1B. CF/3B is closer to 2B in importance than to LF/RF by a good amount. That looks pretty premium to me.

    Chipper is a 25% better hitter than Beltre. While Beltre is certainly a better defender and has more PA, 25% is a huge discrepancy and not one you should believe fielding makes up for guys who (a) don't play up the middle and (b) play the same position.
    Sorry but you are missing some pieces. On a per PA basis Chipper is clearly better than Beltre. BUT:

    1. During Chippers career he played an average of 138 games per season (not including rookie year)
    Beltre has averaged 147 games played. Since Beltre is more than a replacement or average value player he gets additional value from that. If we wanted to be strict we'd toss in replacement value for each when they played under say 140 games, which would hurt Chipper more.

    2. Chipper played about 355 games in LF as a -2 Rtot, and a -1 3B Rtot. Beltre is a +8 at 3B, and don't forget in reality Beltre averaged 9 games more a year gathering these stats.

    3. The park corrections in Seattle fail for Beltre. They average out for every hitter there. Beltres hit chart is a dead LF line drive over and over. Look them up. LAD was also a poor park for him. Look at him in the AL in hitters park. Collected 3 more silver slugers to go with the 2004 one, which is twice what Chippy got.

    Beltre has played more in an average year than Chipper What you're attempting to argue here is akin to me saying peak Andruw was better than peak Griffey. I can wish all day long as a Braves fan but that will never even come close to being true - and those guys played up the middle. I get that Chipper was hurt more often and didn't have the defensive value, but this is quite a stretch.
    Are you OK? This is the most imprecise subjective passage I've ever seen from you.

    I mean Beltre's best seasons with the bat are basically equal to Chipper's career average except for the lone outlier year in LA. Beltre has 6 seasons below 100 wRC+ while Chipper has 8 seasons above 150 wRC+. In short, you must be joking.
    Hitting isn't the whole thing. Look at rWAR by year. Beltre beats Chipper like a drum when they are organized hierarchically.

    Thanks for making me think about it some more. Beltre > Chipper and counting.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  2. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Non premium? 3B is as valuable as CF. The order goes:

    C, SS, 2B,CF/3B, RF/LF, 1B. CF/3B is closer to 2B in importance than to LF/RF by a good amount. That looks pretty premium to me.
    Those are Tango's adjustments that fWAR uses and rWAR at least has the same order if not the exact same value adjustments IIRC. Those are deeply flawed and we've known that now for a few years - the fact that GMs clearly don't value players anything like publicly available WAR calculations is evidence and many (including me) think positional adjustments are a big part of that picture.

    Here is an article using recent DRS and UZR data and eliminating the weird handedness adjustments that Tango uses. This guy actually finds CF to be the second most valuable position to C and ahead of both middle infield positions. I don't know that I would personally go that far but I do think it's a lot closer to SS than it is to 3B.

    Even still, he uses UZR and DRS which are still flawed - I think once we have 6-10 years of Field F/X data we'll have an actually reliable WAR calculation. Now? there are glaring holes and you've fallen into one.




    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Are you OK? This is the most imprecise subjective passage I've ever seen from you.



    Hitting isn't the whole thing. Look at rWAR by year. Beltre beats Chipper like a drum when they are organized hierarchically.

    Thanks for making me think about it some more. Beltre > Chipper and counting.
    You glossed over the most damning evidence by asking if I am "okay" - bravo, that's an interesting tact. I'll expand on the argument, though, since you may have missed it. All the following are career values:

    Chipper: 141 wRC+ and 84.6 fWAR
    Beltre: 115 wRC+ and 81.3 fWAR

    Ken Griffey Jr.: 131 wRC+ and 77.7 fWAR
    Andruw Jones: 111 wRC+ and 67.1 fWAR

    Now do you see? Isolate their primes and Andruw vs. Griffey is actually a better argument than the one you're peddling under your own criteria since much that WAR difference is Griffey the compiler.

    For fun, let's see what other goofy arguments we can come up with under your slavish devotion to WAR defensive values:

    Lance Berkman 144/56.1
    Keith Hernandez: 131/59.4

    Manny Ramirez: 153/66.4
    Tim Raines: 125/66.4

    Duke Snider: 139/63.5
    Kenny Lofton: 109/62.4

    Kirby Puckett: 122/44.9
    Mike Cameron: 107/50.7

    Amusing, but in every case it's either a HOFer compared to just a solid player or an inner circle HOFer compared to a barely in/hall of very good one.

    That's on the level that your argument is, and it's going to need a lot more than just a single flawed stat to convince anyone that a guy like Beltre (who is either barely in or just out of the HOF) is better than an inner circle HOFer and a guy who is a 25% better hitter than he is. And minus the juiced contract year, Beltre has never done much more than Chipper's career average.

  3. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by flea View Post
    Those are Tango's adjustments that fWAR uses and rWAR at least has the same order if not the exact same value adjustments IIRC. Those are deeply flawed and we've known that now for a few years - the fact that GMs clearly don't value players anything like publicly available WAR calculations is evidence and many (including me) think positional adjustments are a big part of that picture.

    Here is an article using recent DRS and UZR data and eliminating the weird handedness adjustments that Tango uses. This guy actually finds CF to be the second most valuable position to C and ahead of both middle infield positions. I don't know that I would personally go that far but I do think it's a lot closer to SS than it is to 3B.

    Even still, he uses UZR and DRS which are still flawed - I think once we have 6-10 years of Field F/X data we'll have an actually reliable WAR calculation. Now? there are glaring holes and you've fallen into one.






    You glossed over the most damning evidence by asking if I am "okay" - bravo, that's an interesting tact. I'll expand on the argument, though, since you may have missed it. All the following are career values:

    Chipper: 141 wRC+ and 84.6 fWAR
    Beltre: 115 wRC+ and 81.3 fWAR

    Ken Griffey Jr.: 131 wRC+ and 77.7 fWAR
    Andruw Jones: 111 wRC+ and 67.1 fWAR

    Now do you see? Isolate their primes and Andruw vs. Griffey is actually a better argument than the one you're peddling under your own criteria since much that WAR difference is Griffey the compiler.

    For fun, let's see what other goofy arguments we can come up with under your slavish devotion to WAR defensive values:

    Lance Berkman 144/56.1
    Keith Hernandez: 131/59.4

    Manny Ramirez: 153/66.4
    Tim Raines: 125/66.4

    Duke Snider: 139/63.5
    Kenny Lofton: 109/62.4

    Kirby Puckett: 122/44.9
    Mike Cameron: 107/50.7

    Amusing, but in every case it's either a HOFer compared to just a solid player or an inner circle HOFer compared to a barely in/hall of very good one.

    That's on the level that your argument is, and it's going to need a lot more than just a single flawed stat to convince anyone that a guy like Beltre (who is either barely in or just out of the HOF) is better than an inner circle HOFer and a guy who is a 25% better hitter than he is. And minus the juiced contract year, Beltre has never done much more than Chipper's career average.
    I hate players like Berkman (.300/.400/.500 guy and i 2ould guess a 140 OPS+) that would be sure things if they played or lasted longer. Like Mattingly, we all know the had HOF talent but didnt put up the lofty career counting numbers.

    Btw. Lofton is an HOF in my book (but if Edmonds cant sniff it then neither can Lofton).

    Puckett would blow Cameron (MC being a better peak defender) out of the water water if he didnt retire early... comparision doesnt hold weight.

    Puckett was voted in out of sympathy for what couldve been (likely a 3000 hit guy and .300 hitter), his career numbers dont really justify it. Albert Belle has a much better case. And Jim Edmonds was a LH Belle with All World defense in CF (still super bitter about Edmonds- one of my favorite players and one of the biggest snubs).

    Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

  4. #214
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    Amusing, but incomplete.

    You didn't address the far from accurate adjustment to Beltres stats in Seattle or even LAD.

    You didn't address the delta in average games played per year. Nor the damage done to Chipper if we fold in replacement level numbers to make up the difference.

    You didn't address Chippers games played at positions clearly inferior in importance to 3B, and how they hurt his ratings. And even if 3B d values are overrated, Beltre clearly is at a higher, almost elite level.

    Year by year listed hierarchically rWAR Beltre was better than Chipper in most pairings:

    Beltre Chipper

    9.5 --- 7.6
    7.8 --- 7.3
    7.2 --- 7.0
    7.0 --- 6.9
    6.4 --- 6.2
    5.8 --- 5.9
    5.8 --- 5.7
    5.6 --- 5.6
    5.6 --- 4.4
    5.4 --- 4.1
    3.9 --- 3.9
    3.8 --- 3.9
    3.6 --- 3.6
    3.3 --- 2.8
    3.3 --- 2.7
    3.2 --- 2.6

    Just about every year... teams do like when their players show up and play, but hey who cares when you're a fan...
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  5. #215
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    48 hits from 3k (almost certain)

    54 HR from 500 (probably not)

    1577 RBI

    5 GG

    594 2B

    90.7 rWAR

    5th 3B in JAWS (ahead of Chipper, just behind Brett); I would take him over Boggs (3rd)
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  6. #216
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    i voted and saw the results. I couldnt believe that 60 people said no. Then I saw when the thread was created and it all made sense. At this point, Beltre has cemented himself in the HoF. I guess he will wear a Rangers hat? The Rangers are really good at stepping in and stealing these HoF players!!! lol

  7. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJBASEBALL22 View Post
    I hate players like Berkman (.300/.400/.500 guy and i 2ould guess a 140 OPS+) that would be sure things if they played or lasted longer. Like Mattingly, we all know the had HOF talent but didnt put up the lofty career counting numbers.

    Btw. Lofton is an HOF in my book (but if Edmonds cant sniff it then neither can Lofton).

    Puckett would blow Cameron (MC being a better peak defender) out of the water water if he didnt retire early... comparision doesnt hold weight.

    Puckett was voted in out of sympathy for what couldve been (likely a 3000 hit guy and .300 hitter), his career numbers dont really justify it. Albert Belle has a much better case. And Jim Edmonds was a LH Belle with All World defense in CF (still super bitter about Edmonds- one of my favorite players and one of the biggest snubs).


    Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk
    All my comparisons were carefully chosen for guys that played the same position with as close to the same PA differential that Chipper and Beltre have. Like I said, all comparisons are either an inner circle guy vs. borderline HOFer or a HOFer and a non HOFer - just like Chipper vs. Beltre.

    This might surprise you but Puckett only has 53 less PA than Cameron. Yet the goofy WAR defensive adjustments say he had a better career. Everyone who saw them both knows with absolute certainty that Puckett was a much better player - and I saw that as someone who does admire Cameron's career.

    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Amusing, but incomplete.

    You didn't address the far from accurate adjustment to Beltres stats in Seattle or even LAD.

    You didn't address the delta in average games played per year. Nor the damage done to Chipper if we fold in replacement level numbers to make up the difference.

    You didn't address Chippers games played at positions clearly inferior in importance to 3B, and how they hurt his ratings. And even if 3B d values are overrated, Beltre clearly is at a higher, almost elite level.

    Year by year listed hierarchically rWAR Beltre was better than Chipper in most pairings:
    I've never seen any batting adjustments that even put a dent in a more than 25% difference in the quality of their bat. As for the rest, I criticized WAR's calculations and all you did was quote me their WAR in response.

    Beltre the compiler is better. Their primes do not even compare - I don't care how valuable the loose defensive adjustments in WAR or the inaccurate UZR (which doesn't even cover part of Chipper's career). This whole thread is an object lesson for why slavishly quoting WAR does not mean much. This is a total Tim Raines vs. Manny Ramirez comparison.

  8. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by flea View Post
    All my comparisons were carefully chosen for guys that played the same position with as close to the same PA differential that Chipper and Beltre have. Like I said, all comparisons are either an inner circle guy vs. borderline HOFer or a HOFer and a non HOFer - just like Chipper vs. Beltre.

    This might surprise you but Puckett only has 53 less PA than Cameron. Yet the goofy WAR defensive adjustments say he had a better career. Everyone who saw them both knows with absolute certainty that Puckett was a much better player - and I saw that as someone who does admire Cameron's career.



    I've never seen any batting adjustments that even put a dent in a more than 25% difference in the quality of their bat. As for the rest, I criticized WAR's calculations and all you did was quote me their WAR in response.

    Beltre the compiler is better. Their primes do not even compare - I don't care how valuable the loose defensive adjustments in WAR or the inaccurate UZR (which doesn't even cover part of Chipper's career). This whole thread is an object lesson for why slavishly quoting WAR does not mean much. This is a total Tim Raines vs. Manny Ramirez comparison.
    Again you refuse to address the serious issue of Chippers lost games, and his playing at other positions besides 3B.

    Ever look at the hit charts for Beltre in Seattle? The generic adjustment he got is a fraction of what he lost. LAD wasn't a good park for him either. He played home games in two hitters parks: Boston and Arlington in the latter 1/3 of his career, if he was there his whole career he'd have the 500 HR's and 700 2B's. His wOBA would be below Chippers, but he's playing at an age when Chipper didn't/couldn't, his health/games played is well better, and he was a better fielder all along, and didn't get put at softer positions like Chipper did with regularity further diluting the value of his glove.

    Innings played at 3B, guess who has more

    22760 > 17105 - that's a 3rd more for Beltre

    3511 innings away from 3B, 15 for Beltre
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  9. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Again you refuse to address the serious issue of Chippers lost games, and his playing at other positions besides 3B.

    Ever look at the hit charts for Beltre in Seattle? The generic adjustment he got is a fraction of what he lost. LAD wasn't a good park for him either. He played home games in two hitters parks: Boston and Arlington in the latter 1/3 of his career, if he was there his whole career he'd have the 500 HR's and 700 2B's. His wOBA would be below Chippers, but he's playing at an age when Chipper didn't/couldn't, his health/games played is well better, and he was a better fielder all along, and didn't get put at softer positions like Chipper did with regularity further diluting the value of his glove.

    Innings played at 3B, guess who has more

    22760 > 17105 - that's a 3rd more for Beltre

    3511 innings away from 3B, 15 for Beltre
    Then how do you explain Beltre's monster 2004 season? You definitely have a point with the ballparks, but there was definitely some underachievement offensively during his pre-Boston days.

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  10. #220
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    Quote Originally Posted by dodgerdave View Post
    Then how do you explain Beltre's monster 2004 season? You definitely have a point with the ballparks, but there was definitely some underachievement offensively during his pre-Boston days.
    Yaz, Musial, Brady Anderson, Norm Cash - lots of guys have insane power bursts or magical seasons... could be juice, could be one of those things.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  11. #221
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    Congrats on 3K... he's in one way or another, accept it.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  12. #222
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    It used to be stats were used to confirm what you saw, compare them to people you couldn't see, and bring them all together helping build what is now the history of baseball. It seems now in many ways it's to make someone better than what people saw.

    I appreciate modern stats to break close tie comparisons and I understand that some people wrongly put heavy value in stats that are weak such as RBI and Wins, but when they are used to build a player, I raise an eyebrow.
    Quote Originally Posted by Crucis View Post
    Parity is about equality of opportunity, not equality of results.

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