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View Poll Results: Who is the better player?

Voters
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  • Ellsbury

    13 92.86%
  • Gardner

    0 0%
  • They are equal

    1 7.14%
  • Other

    0 0%
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  1. #1
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    Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner

    Ellsbury and Gardner are two similar players. Neither is known for their bat but provide value with defense and base running.

    PLAYER: OBP/SLG wRC+, batting runs, baserunning, fielding+positional, replacement (per 650 PA)
    Ellsbury: .352/.439 109, 6.7, 7.7, 8.5, 19.4
    Gardner: .351/.379 101, 0.3, 9.7, 22.4, 19.2
    *FanGraphs stats

    Ellsbury has one standout offensive season in which he hit .376/.552 which skews the numbers a bit.

    Projection systems (ZiPS and STEAMER) have them performing like this for the rest of the season (per 650 PA):
    Ellsbury: .347/.434 4.8 battingruns, 6.2 baserunning, 6.8 fielding+positional, 19.2 replacement, 37 total runs
    Gardner: .345/.386 -1.5 battingruns, 13.9 baserunning, 3.6 fielding+positional, 19.2 replacement, 37.4 total runs

    Interestingly, Gardner is only a few weeks older than Ellsbury so even that is similar.

    So, who you got?
    And why?

  2. #2
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    I like both guys but Ellsbury's the better player.
    Favourite Teams:

    Boston Red Sox: Disappointing regular season, hoping for good things in 2015.
    Indianapolis Colts: 5-2, Week 8 vs. Steelers
    Dallas Mavericks: New team, hoping for good things this season.
    Ottawa Senators: 4-1-0, games this week vs. Toronto, New Jersey, Chicago

  3. #3
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    They're about equal, but I'll say Ellsbury just because of his monster 2011.

  4. #4
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    Ellsbury is better but he gets hurt so much. I wouldnt touch him honestly.

  5. #5
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    Ellsbury based off of 2011. Everything else is equal. ask me again in 3 years.. LOL

  6. #6
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    Ellsbury has a higher AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, SB, and a significantly lower K%, for those who like the simple stats. He also has a higher WAR, wRC, wRC+, and wOBA for those who like the advanced stats. Ellsbury has been a good amount better this year.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Green_Monster View Post
    Ellsbury has a higher AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, SB, and a significantly lower K%, for those who like the simple stats. He also has a higher WAR, wRC, wRC+, and wOBA for those who like the advanced stats. Ellsbury has been a good amount better this year.
    To make it clear, I'm not talking about this year, or the past. I'm asking about the future

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    To make it clear, I'm not talking about this year, or the past. I'm asking about the future
    Tough to say. Both of their games are built on speed, and that usually doesn't translate well into the later years of players careers.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Green_Monster View Post
    Tough to say.
    Well, it wouldn't be much of a question if it were an easy question, would it?

  10. #10
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    This is an interesting question.

    From a WAR valuation standpoint they have not been significantly different.
    Ellsbury = 4.77 fWAR/150 4.28 bWAR/150 -- 0.347 wOBA 109 wRC+
    Gardner = 4.64 fWAR/150 4.80 bWAR/150 -- 0.329 wOBA 101 wRC+

    Baseball-Reference considers Gardner the superior overall player while Fangraphs sees them as nearly identical.

    Interestingly B-R holds these valuations:
    Gardy: +83 Rfield / +22 Rbaser
    Ellsbury: +22 Rfield / +24 RBaser

    And Fangraph concurs (if not in significance) about the difference:
    Gardy: 78.2 FLD / 30.1 BsR
    Ellsbury: 35.0 FLD / 35.6 BsR

    Overall I would consider Gardner the superior Defender, Ellsbury the superior Hitter (if only marginally) and both effectively equal in the realm of base-running.

    Interestingly to this point in the season the offensive differential is essentially non-existent however Ellsbury is building value through fielding and base-running. His 8 DRS are better than Gardy's 5 DRS though the 9.2 UZR/150 vs. 3.3 UZR/150 in favor of Gardy is significant.

    The defensive metrics are still varying this season, though a number of them indicate to me Gardy is likely to have a better defensive season once again.

    The big difference here is the 37/40 SB Ellsbury is carrying.

    Overall, I would argue both of these players are essentially equal in overall value at the moment with either man capable of a superior single season in any given year, though by nature of the speed game Ellsbury can likely maintain a superior value through his bat over the next 4-5 seasons than Gardner can as both men begin to slow down.

  11. #11
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    jacoby ellsbury is 2X better than brett gardner but got to give props to gardner had a good first half of the season

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    To make it clear, I'm not talking about this year, or the past. I'm asking about the future
    Ellsbury due to size and more power. Main issue is injuries, but he's a dirty player when on the field. 2011 is only two years ago and that was a really badass season.

  13. #13
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    Well, since the Yankees just signed Ellsbury it seems like a good time to revisit this

    My original post was made around the All-Star Break

    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Projection systems (ZiPS and STEAMER) have them performing like this for the rest of the season (per 650 PA):
    Ellsbury: .347/.434 4.8 battingruns, 6.2 baserunning, 6.8 fielding+positional, 19.2 replacement, 37 total runs
    Gardner: .345/.386 -1.5 battingruns, 13.9 baserunning, 3.6 fielding+positional, 19.2 replacement, 37.4 total runs
    In the second half, Ellsbury hit .330/.435, 5.7 batting runs, 11.1 base running, 12.2 fielding+positional, 18.6 replacement, 48 total runs
    In the second half, Gardner hit .350/.403, 6.4 batting runs, 5.2 base running, 1.2 fielding+positional, 18.6 replacement, 31.4 total runs
    *http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...yers=9927,4727

    (Lots of people like to claim that these types of projections are 'useless'. I beg to differ).


    Ellsbury outperformed Gardner in the 2nd half, but most of the difference was in defense which is the least accurate measure - especially in small samples.

    Only STEAMER projections are out now and they project:
    Ellsbury .335/.418 36.5 runs per 650 PA
    Gardner .342/.381 25.5 runs per 650 PA

    it looks like the fine folk at PSD agree with the fine folk from STEAMER in preferring Ellsbury to Gardner.

  14. #14
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    Now the yanks have Ellsbury, I would trade Gardner to Cincy for Homer Baily

  15. #15
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    Ellsbury has more pop and a better BA, Gardy has a better glove and a bit better OBP.

    I would take Ellsbury if they both made $10M for example but since Ellsbury will make $23M/year and Gardy only makes around $3-4M/year now then it becomes a no-brainer Gardner for me.
    Carlos Beltran 2014 Stats:
    33 Games | .307 wOBA | .240 BABIP | 5 HRs | 14 Runs | 15 RBIs


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