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  1. #1
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    CU poll - election factors point to Romney wins by a few votes

    http://www.colorado.edu/news/multime...nts-romney-win

    "CU study says analysis of election factors points to Romney win

    Aug. 22, 2012 Ken Bickers

    And the winner is? The Romney-Ryan ticket! That’s according to a University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980.

    Political analyst and CU-Boulder professor Ken Bickers, co-author of the study, says the overwhelming factor influencing this model is the economy.

    CUT 1 “Based on variables of relative employment across the 50 states and rising or falling real income across the 50 states we’re able to go back and analyze how the states have come out over the last 8 election cycles. (:16) In this election cycle what that model shows is that the Obama-Biden ticket is likely to lose the election. (:25)

    Bickers created the prediction model with CU-Denver Professor Michael Berry.

    According to Bickers the model predicts the Obama-Biden ticket will lose by quite a few votes.

    CUT 2 “At this point in time with economic data that exists right now our forecast is that the Obama ticket would win 218 Electoral College votes and that the Romney-Ryan ticket would get 320 Electoral College votes. (:16) Essentially what that means is that the Romney ticket would sweep most though not all of the battleground states.” (:23)

    One of those states is Colorado, which he says is hard to predict since it has so many independent voters.

    CUT 3 “Colorado is one of the hardest states to predict in this. It’s one of the ones that is absolutely on the edge. Right now we show it going to Romney and Ryan.” (:12)

    Bickers says the model is not perfect and on average of the 50 states and Washington D.C. that were studied, the model can be off by one. But that won’t be enough to help President Obama, says Bickers, because the probability rate, at 76 percent, is just too high for the Obama-Biden ticket to overcome.

    CUT 4 “Right now what the model suggests is that Romney and Ryan should win. These are the worst economic conditions that we have seen in a recovery in seven-and-a-half-decades. (:10) We know that the economy makes a difference in presidential elections. If the economy doesn’t make a difference in this election that’s what would surprise me.” (20)

    The key to the model, says Bickers, is analyzing data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia and not simply arriving at the two party vote percentage from a national perspective. He stresses the election is a state-by-state race.

    CUT 5 “This is not a national plebiscite. We don’t have a system like in Europe where the winner is the one who got more votes than the next vote-getter in the contest. The system we have is one of state-by-state contest. (:12) What we’ve done is to extend the logic of that to try to forecast where each state and the district will come out in November so that we can make an Electoral College forecast.” (:27)

    Bickers and Berry will recalculate their model in mid-September when new economic data is released. But, he says, he doesn’t expect the economy to turn around enough to change the current prediction for November."
    Pretty interesting model to say the least
    Last edited by airronijordan; 08-22-2012 at 04:24 PM. Reason: Quote wrap

  2. #2
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    This is pretty much what everyone looking at the economic situation would/did predict. It certainly is what I thought would happen. But the current inability of the Romney/Ryan ticket to poll numbers like this is amazing. The GOP looks like it is going to cough up a sure win.

    SMH, but happily.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by IndyFan View Post
    This is pretty much what everyone looking at the economic situation would/did predict. It certainly is what I thought would happen. But the current inability of the Romney/Ryan ticket to poll numbers like this is amazing. The GOP looks like it is going to cough up a sure win.

    SMH, but happily.
    Thus far the Obama campaign has done a great job of keeping Romney on the defensive. He simply hadn't been able to hit back when he was consistently defending or answering to what is being put out by the Obama campaign. I think its FAR to early to say anything definitively one way or the other with regards to who is going to win the eventual election.

    Far to much time between now and the election to read anything into any of the poll numbers. Once we get into early October then we can start giving a little more weight to what the polls are saying with more of the nation paying attention. That gives the campaigns plenty of time to get their message out and the debates to start happening. Then polls will be moving with the message being put out versus now who can sling the most mud at the other.

    I honestly am truly looking forward to the debates. I hope that they are centered around a difference of philosophy on how to move our country forward and not about trying to run the opponent down at every opportunity. If that is the case this will be a very fascinating election to watch.
    French writer Alexis de Tocqueville warned about when visiting this fledgling democracy in the early 19th century – that this "American republic will endure until politicians realize they can bribe the people with their own money."

  4. #4
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    definitely a nice read
    **********

  5. #5
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    Wait a second! Dbroncs says Obama is CRUSHING Romney. This must be a lie.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by John X Doe View Post
    Wait a second! Dbroncs says Obama is CRUSHING Romney. This must be a lie.
    You're going to need to be more entertaining pretty quickly if you want to continue to pull this nonsense off.


    This is a study, not a poll. There's a difference, and if you don't want to continue looking like you're just sad and angry, you should learn what they are.
    Visit my Blog.



    "Glad the GOP finally came out with an Obamacare alternative. Can't wait to see their alternative to the Iraq War." - @LOLGOP

  7. #7
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    I'm starting to think natepro hires Poes monthly to eviscerate them on the political and general boards. Where else would these people come from? I refuse to believe there is that much crazy out there.


    The Giants NL West Division chase.

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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by GHGHCP View Post
    I'm starting to think natepro hires Poes monthly to eviscerate them on the political and general boards. Where else would these people come from? I refuse to believe there is that much crazy out there.



    You wouldn't believe how much it costs!
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    "Glad the GOP finally came out with an Obamacare alternative. Can't wait to see their alternative to the Iraq War." - @LOLGOP

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