When will Sabermetrics take over?

[jej]

I wouldn't call OBP and SLG saber metrics. They have been around. Have em at Safeco too.

[IndiansFan337]

They already. They're slowly being integrated into every fans' brain via telecasts, ESPN, fantasy, etc. The more often every fan sees these stats and the more familiar that every fan becomes with these stats will increase the speed at which they take over.

People like simple stats like batting average, HR's, RBI's, SB's, wins, losses and saves because they know how they are calculated. Once it becomes more common knowledge how sabermetrics stats like BABIP, WAR, etc are calculated then far more people will start referencing them more often.

[jej]

I wouldn't say they already are. I never see anything on ESPN about them, occasionally on MLB Network. Some fans certainly know, but I guarantee if you asked a few sections at a ballpark, over half would not know what you are talking about when you say FIP, wOBA, RC etc.

[sexicano31]

ESPN has started citing things like WAR and BABIP. When comparing pitchers they use KK/9 and BB/9 at times. Ive also seen WPA. Its not much, but its a start

[Jeffy25]

You really think that's a flaw? Putting the ball in play with runners on moves them. Putting it in play without anyone on causes the defense to make a play rather than just getting a free pass.
Hit>walk.

yup.

Single is always greater than a walk.

But the difference is that it isn't a LOT greater. Just a little lol.

About 8% iirc

[flips333]

You really think that's a flaw? Putting the ball in play with runners on moves them. Putting it in play without anyone on causes the defense to make a play rather than just getting a free pass.
Hit>walk.

But the net value of a single and a walk with no one on are the same. What does it matter if someone on the opposing team has to move?

I think a single with someone on is worth more than a walk... a single with no one on can't have more value. The rare case where a single becomes a double because of a error can't be 8%? I would guess that value comes more from scoring people on 2B and people going from 1st to 3rd. Does this calculate the difference between a single with someone on and a single without someone on? Or is a single a single? IF a single is a single then yes it's a flaw of sorts... if a minute one.

There is also evidence that it is actually easier to get a hit with someone on. (Opens holes in the defense, Causes pitchers to work out of the stretch) there are alot of aspects of hitting that could still be included in measurement.

[Jeffy25]

But the net value of a single and a walk with no one on are the same. What does it matter if someone on the opposing team has to move?

I think a single with someone on is worth more than a walk... a single with no one on can't have more value. The rare case where a single becomes a double because of a error can't be 8%? I would guess that value comes more from scoring people on 2B and people going from 1st to 3rd. Does this calculate the difference between a single with someone on and a single without someone on? Or is a single a single? IF a single is a single then yes it's a flaw of sorts... if a minute one.

There is also evidence that it is actually easier to get a hit with someone on. (Opens holes in the defense, Causes pitchers to work out of the stretch) there are alot of aspects of hitting that could still be included in measurement.

jej is just referring to the game value concept of walking a guy vs having him put the ball in play.

when you walk him, he reaches base 100%, when he puts the ball in play, he has about a 30ish% chance of getting a base hit.

[natepro]

One more generation


My son won't be learning AVG, HR, RBI, W-L.


I think they will eventually diminish all together, but I think at least another decade before they are there are new mainstay stats

Yup, that's what I was going to say.

Saber stats will be just like everything else. There will be people in this generation on the forefront, who pass it on to the next generation and make it mainstream. This happens all the time in culture. Granted they're very different things, but the same thing is happening with homosexuality right now. Eventually, it'll be just as normal as interracial marriage and no one will think twice about it.

The zeitgeist moves ever forward.

[Fly]

Hopefully soon.

[jej]

But the net value of a single and a walk with no one on are the same. What does it matter if someone on the opposing team has to move?

I think a single with someone on is worth more than a walk... a single with no one on can't have more value. The rare case where a single becomes a double because of a error can't be 8%? I would guess that value comes more from scoring people on 2B and people going from 1st to 3rd. Does this calculate the difference between a single with someone on and a single without someone on? Or is a single a single? IF a single is a single then yes it's a flaw of sorts... if a minute one.

There is also evidence that it is actually easier to get a hit with someone on. (Opens holes in the defense, Causes pitchers to work out of the stretch) there are alot of aspects of hitting that could still be included in measurement.

A single with someone on is not calculated separately from a single with no one on. I believe it is average value. A walk is never more valuable than a single. A single however, is more valuable in most cases.

[hoggin88]

If fans could at least learn to incorporate the triple slash, that would be significant progress. Advanced stats like WPA, wRC, WAR, etc will likely never catch on with the masses.

[Jeffy25]

If fans could at least learn to incorporate the triple slash, that would be significant progress. Advanced stats like WPA, wRC, WAR, etc will likely never catch on with the masses.

the triple slash line would at least be easy enough to incorporate, all fans know batting average, and obp and slugging has been around for as long as I can personally remember.

That would help a lot.

[Driven]

It will take at least a full generation. People are traditionalists by heart. For things to change, it will take kids growing up with it. I'm assuming that most of the people who follow Sabermetrics are on the younger side for that reason. Luckily, I started half-heartedly following them when I was probably about 15. I was still naive enough to be open-minded about these things. It's just naturally hard for people who have grown up with something to all of the sudden change their thoughts.

Will sabermetrics take over? It depends what you consider taking over. I do think that one day AVG will become a secondary stat, and OBP will be the first one you hear about. OPS will continue to get stronger, and I do think that a WAR like stat will be mainstream, since it seems like the media wants to oddly push an all-around stat, even though no one understands it.

I really hope the current mainstream defensive stats are rid of one day.

[Rangers&MetsFTW]

There is most definitely a difference between a single and a walk, and it is still there with nobody on base.

Say a guy hits a line drive single to an outfielder, which often happens. Well, 15 more feet to the right of the right fielder or 15 feet more to the left of the left fielder and it could very easily become a double. That is something that is hard to be reflected in statistics but you sure as hell can reflect it by weighting.

[lolPhillies]

I know they have among thinking fans, for the most part.

However there are still a lot of people who still use AVG and RBIs, W-L and ERA, even on here. To this point MLB network, ESPN etc do not use saber stats because people either don't understand them, or dont like them for whatever reason.

My question is, when do you think these stats will gain traction with normal fans enough to be shown on all stat sites, and on TV, both on recap/talk shows and during games?

If you pay attention to the media, it is slowly being integrated. Casual fans need to be conditioned to it unfortunately.