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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Springfield, Mo

    Boom/Bust candidates

    I'm going to start with a boom candidate. If you read the other thread I started, it mentions that I'm keeping Russell Wilson with a 9th rd pick, so that's who I want to highlight. I would highly recommend drafting Russell Wilson this year. Here's the comparison between the highest drafted QB in mock drafts, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson in the 4 positive pt categories

    Aaron Rodgers- ADP 19th overall
    Russell Wilson- ADP 67th overall

    Last year stats and pts (based off of 25 yrds per pt)
    Aaron Rodgers- 4295 yards passing (171.8 pts for yards) Advantage
    Russell Wilson- 3118 yards passing (124.72 pts for yards)

    Touchdown passes based off of standard 4 pts/TD
    Aaron Rodgers- 39 touchdown passes (156 pts) Advantage
    Russell Wilson- 26 touchdown passes (104 pts)

    Rushing yards pased off of 10 yrds/pt
    Aaron Rodgers- 259 rushing yards (25 pts)
    Russell Wilson- 489 rushing yards (48 pts) Advantage

    Rushing touchdowns based on standard 6 pts per touchdown
    Aaron Rodgers- 2 rushing touchdowns (12 pts)
    Russell Wilson- 4 rushing touchdowns (24 pts)

    Aaron Rodgers- 364 total points, or 22.75 pts a game
    Russell Wilson- 300 total points, or 18.75 pts a game

    This doesn't factor in that Russell Wilson recently gained a great target in Percy Harvin. So the difference between taking Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd and Russell Wilson with tremendous upside in the 6th is 4 pts a game based off of last year's scoring. That 4 points can be made up by drafting Randall Cobb, Percy(love having QB/WR combos personally) or MJD, 2nd rd projections, over Antonio Brown, Greg Jennings, or Josh Gordon, 6th rd projections.

    Let me know what you think about the draft strategy. Please don't bash me for not including sacks/interceptions, as these numbers were fairly comparable with the small loss of points for either turnover (typically 1 or 2 points a peace). And if you want to go down that road, Russell Wilson was only sacked 33 times, Rodgers had 51. Granted, Rodgers is more predictable and Russell is somewhat of a wild card, but I'd take my chances drafting him.


  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Springfield, Mo
    I want to clarify this is NOT me calling Aaron Rodgers a bust candidate. He's tremendous and will most likely be the top scoring quarterback. Just me acknowledging the small difference between taking him high and taking Russell lower.


  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    I completely agree with your draft strategy of waiting on a QB this season not solely based on the depth of the QB position, but the relative lack of depth of other positions as well. **note - obviously, if one plays in a 2-QB league, that would change, but in a typical 1 QB league, I'd wait.**

    Let's compare three QBs (Rodgers: ADP-late 1 to mid 2; Ryan: ADP Rd 5-6; Stafford: ADP Rd 7-8).

    Depending upon your league's TD scoring (6 or 4), based on last year's stats, Rodgers would average 25.1 in a 6/TD league (20.4 in a 4 pt/TD league). Ryan 22.4 (18.4) and Stafford 19.3 (16.8). So, Rodgers would outscore Ryan by an average of 2.7 ppg in a 6 pt / TD league (1.8 in a 4 pt / TD league) and outscore Stafford by 5.8 (3.4)

    If you had a pick towards the end of Round 1 and decided to load up on RBs and WRs before picking your QB (Matt Ryan towards the end of Round 5), your roster could look something like this:

    QB - Ryan (5) 22.4 ppg / 18.4 ppg
    RB - McCoy (1) I think a strong candidate for a rebound season
    RB - D. Sproles (4) Great for PPR leagues, or if you prefer one of the rookies like L. Bell (4)
    WR - B. Marshall (2)
    WR - P. Harvin (3)

    If you wanted to go with Rodgers, and you had around the 10th pick, you'd probably need to grab him in Round 1. It would be a gamble to wait until Round 2 (pick 15 in a 12 man league). I've done quite a few mocks already, and Rodgers' ADP is creeping up. He goes end of Rd 1 to mid Round 2 in every draft, and my thought is that if you REALLY want him, you better grab him.

    QB - Rodgers (1) 25.1 ppg / 20.4 ppg
    RB - Forte (2) I actually like him quite a bit...maybe my favorite of the slightly out of the 1st rd RBs
    RB - L. Miller or DMC (3) I think if you go QB early, you have to grab RBs with your next two...or you are in big trouble
    WR - V. Jackson (4)
    WR - T. Smith (5)

    Yes, Rodgers is probably going to be the #1 QB, and (barring injury) you will never worry about your QB slot all season if you draft him #1, but I believe you pay a steep penalty at RB and WR. Now, maybe you don't like the particular players I took with one of the two teams, but that is the approximate ADP for each of those players. I personally think that the first roster would be really tough to beat; however, if you don't love Ryan, you could get a guy like Wilson or Kaepernick in Round 5 to 7 depending on the draft.

    Now, you could argue that if you decided to go with Brees, you'd be able to grab him with your 2nd pick, and that would give you a roster like: Brees (2), McCoy (1) and then you'd have more flexibility to go with best available at rd 3 instead of being locked in to best RB on the board. I guess my argument is that I'd not take a QB early...unless he fell to me.
    Last edited by A New Century; 07-10-2013 at 11:40 AM.

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