The Official 2012-2013 Yankees Prospect Thread

[nyyfan4life]

BBDP Breakout candidate: You can’t replace the Ref

BBDP Nickname: “The Ref”

The basics:
Name: Rob Refsnyder
Age: 22 to start next season.
Draft: 5th round of the 2012 draft out of the University of Arizona.
Size: 6-foot-1, 205-pounds
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Best Tools: Hit tool, athleticism and speed, and “it” factor tool.
Needs Work: 2nd base defense, consistency at the plate.
BBDP Ranking: 46

I hate to disagree with you but Rob Refsnyder is neither speedy nor all that athletic. His speed is very average and he's not athletic at all. He said so himself in an interview with PinstripesPlus. He makes up for his lack of speed with intelligence on the basepaths and an aggressive style of play. His IQ and make-up are both major positives. The intangibles he brings are exceptional. He's just not all that gifted physically.

He has a good hit tool but he struggles with higher end fastballs, especially on the inner 3rd of the plate. One thing that he does have going is that he's a terrific off-speed hitter. I do agree with your ranking though. He's on the lower end of the top 50.

[Phoba Rama]

I hate to disagree with you but Rob Refsnyder is neither speedy nor all that athletic. His speed is very average and he's not athletic at all. He said so himself in an interview with PinstripesPlus. He makes up for his lack of speed with intelligence on the basepaths and an aggressive style of play. His IQ and make-up are both major positives. The intangibles he brings are exceptional. He's just not all that gifted physically.

He has a good hit tool but he struggles with higher end fastballs, especially on the inner 3rd of the plate. One thing that he does have going is that he's a terrific off-speed hitter. I do agree with your ranking though. He's on the lower end of the top 50.

He is absolutely athletic. The Yankees wouldn't switch an outfielder to 2B at the age of 20 unless he was. You can't make that transition unless you're athletic. Most feel he has it in him to be a plus second baseman. You can't be a plus second baseman unless you're athletic.

As for the speed, I don't think I overestimated it in this article at all. It's not as though I am saying he is going to steal a ton of bases in the major leagues. In fact, I actually said that it remains to be seen if his speed on the basepaths in Charleston will translate to the higher levels. Speed is currently a strength in his game. No one said he's a burner, just that speed is one of his stronger points.

PinstripesPlus is a great site and a great resource, but it's not the end all be all. Also, I did not take that away from the interview, as far as him not thinking he was athletic or fast. I took it as him being a humble guy, and him saying that there's always gonna be someone just as good as him so he has to work harder than them or he won't be better. Every player should have that outlook. That doesn't mean he's not athletic or fast at all.

[nyyfan4life]

He is absolutely athletic. The Yankees wouldn't switch an outfielder to 2B at the age of 20 unless he was. You can't make that transition unless you're athletic. Most feel he has it in him to be a plus second baseman. You can't be a plus second baseman unless you're athletic.

As for the speed, I don't think I overestimated it in this article at all. It's not as though I am saying he is going to steal a ton of bases in the major leagues. In fact, I actually said that it remains to be seen if his speed on the basepaths in Charleston will translate to the higher levels. Speed is currently a strength in his game. No one said he's a burner, just that speed is one of his stronger points.

PinstripesPlus is a great site and a great resource, but it's not the end all be all. Also, I did not take that away from the interview, as far as him not thinking he was athletic or fast. I took it as him being a humble guy, and him saying that there's always gonna be someone just as good as him so he has to work harder than them or he won't be better. Every player should have that outlook. That doesn't mean he's not athletic or fast at all.

Refsnyder will actually be 22 opening day. As for his position change, he was converted from a COF position to 2B because he doesn't hit for enough power to be at a corner outfield position.

You said.. "He stole 11 bases in just 46 games, which means he could steal close to 40 over a full major league season..." which is incredibly horrific logic. Again, how can speed be a strong point when he's not fast? He has average speed especially for a middle infielder. You might feel that he's fast based of some stats (11 SB's in 46 games type logic) but sadly, he's not.

Who said PP is the end of everything? I don't use their scouting reports because a lot like yours they are extremely optimistic and don't focus enough on the negatives or realistic projections. There is a reason why guys like these aren't that highly touted.

[TheBadOwl]

I think that Ref's ceiling is a Ben Zobrist type.

[nyyfan4life]

I think that Ref's ceiling is a Ben Zobrist type.

An all-star level player who can play borderline gold glove caliber defense at multiple positions? His ceiling is probably Marco Scutaro for me. I think he's a reserve player, if he ever makes it to the majors.

[joseph aka Jman]

2015 outfield

Heathcott- Williams- Austin

[nyyfan4life]

2015 outfield

Heathcott- Williams- Austin

There's a good chance that only one of them realize their potential. That's usually the case with prospects.

[Phoba Rama]

An all-star level player who can play borderline gold glove caliber defense at multiple positions? His ceiling is probably Marco Scutaro for me. I think he's a reserve player, if he ever makes it to the majors.

There's a difference between ceiling and how good someone will most likely end up. Usually with my reports I do a ceiling and a floor. Almost every prospect outside of the top 10 (and even some of the top 10) is more likely to reach their floor than their ceiling. As I've mentioned several times in the past, it's a lot easier to bet against prospects than it is to bet on them, because most of them end up failing.

"All-Star second baseman" is a best case scenario for Refsnyder. Given what he did in the college world series I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say that if everything goes 100% right for him, he'll be an all-star second baseman. But I think you know the meaning of ceiling.

That said, of course he's more likely that his actual disposition will be to become a Marco Scutaro type. You can take any prospect, including our top 3, and say they are more likely to become a reserve type player than an all-star, and you'd be right. The numbers bear it out every time.

Finally, as for the quote you took out of the article, it is taken out of context. That statement on it's own is obviously a fallacy. When you read further in the same paragraph though, it goes on to explain that it remains to be seen whether his speed will be able to translate to the upper levels, let alone the majors. There are plenty of guys who can steal quite a few bases in the major leagues with above average speed. I emphasize above average because he is not an average runner, he has above average speed. Not plus mind you, above average.

[nyyfan4life]

There's a difference between ceiling and how good someone will most likely end up. Usually with my reports I do a ceiling and a floor. Almost every prospect outside of the top 10 (and even some of the top 10) is more likely to reach their floor than their ceiling. As I've mentioned several times in the past, it's a lot easier to bet against prospects than it is to bet on them, because most of them end up failing.

"All-Star second baseman" is a best case scenario for Refsnyder. Given what he did in the college world series I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say that if everything goes 100% right for him, he'll be an all-star second baseman. But I think you know the meaning of ceiling.

That said, of course he's more likely that his actual disposition will be to become a Marco Scutaro type. You can take any prospect, including our top 3, and say they are more likely to become a reserve type player than an all-star, and you'd be right. The numbers bear it out every time.

Finally, as for the quote you took out of the article, it is taken out of context. That statement on it's own is obviously a fallacy. When you read further in the same paragraph though, it goes on to explain that it remains to be seen whether his speed will be able to translate to the upper levels, let alone the majors. There are plenty of guys who can steal quite a few bases in the major leagues with above average speed. I emphasize above average because he is not an average runner, he has above average speed. Not plus mind you, above average.

Agree to disagree.

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate your work on this board with prospects. Its fun discussing prospects with someone that knows their stuff. I guess when it comes to 'ceiling' I prefer realistic ceilings/projections because otherwise (in a nutshell) basically any prospects' ceiling is an all-star type player.

[dayners81]

just my opinion but Refsnyder was a 21 yr old who had 3yrs of high level college program experience. He was then sent to low A where he was playing against kids who were mostly a couple yrs out of high school or their 2nd yr stateside from the DSL. With the experience Refsnyder had he should have put up good numbers and stood out playing at that level.

He could end up being a very good player, he could just as easily be nothing but i'll wait to see how he does when he starts playing against guys is own age or of similar experience level

[Phoba Rama]

Agree to disagree.

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate your work on this board with prospects. Its fun discussing prospects with someone that knows their stuff. I guess when it comes to 'ceiling' I prefer realistic ceilings/projections because otherwise (in a nutshell) basically any prospects' ceiling is an all-star type player.

I don't think every player has that kind of ceiling. Again, I gave my reasons for thinking he could be an all-star if everything goes right. These breakout pieces are all on players that I believe have high ceilings, otherwise I wouldn't feel like they were going to break out.

There are plenty of players, especially those who are older, in Double-A and Triple-A, who's ceilings are much more clear at this point. For example, I don't think it can be said that Brett Marshall has a ceiling of an ace. I also don't think you can say that Zoilo Almonte, or Melky Mesa has an all-star ceiling. They're ceilings are more like "cheap, effective starter."

[Phoba Rama]

just my opinion but Refsnyder was a 21 yr old who had 3yrs of high level college program experience. He was then sent to low A where he was playing against kids who were mostly a couple yrs out of high school or their 2nd yr stateside from the DSL. With the experience Refsnyder had he should have put up good numbers and stood out playing at that level.

He could end up being a very good player, he could just as easily be nothing but i'll wait to see how he does when he starts playing against guys is own age or of similar experience level

He had a big leg kick that worked to his advantage in college because he saw mostly off-speed pitching there. Now that he saw more fastballs the leg kick was outdated and he has made the adjustment and looked 10 times better at the end of the season and at instructs.

The leap in competition from college to single-A cannot be underestimated. Very few players drafted out of college can have success in single-A in their first season.

[Yankee Clipper]

Following a monster .388/.494/.602 (192 wRC+) effort with the Scottsdale Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League in recent weeks, Slade Heathcott was named the sixth best prospect in the circuit by Baseball America (subs. req’d). The write-up noted that at least one evaluator considered him the league’s top prospect.

“Heathcott displays an aggressive approach and smooth left-handed swing with above-average raw power,” wrote Baseball America. “His plus speed makes him an extra-base hit machine, although he is still improving his stolen base ability … Heathcott’s intensity made him one of the most exciting players to watch this fall, and it showed itself in his laying out for flyballs, frequently taking the extra base and once even bulldozing the catcher.” That all-out style of play has been his downfall so far, leading to three left shoulder injuries including two that required surgery. Heathcott could be a star if healthy, but so far that’s been a challenge.

Yankees LoHud

[dayners81]

Yankees LoHud

that right up sounds about right and a pretty good reasons he vaulted up our prospect charts so quickly. Lets hope he can stay healthy and between him and Mason we have a really solid chance at developing our own stud CFer.

It will be interesting to see if they both develop well if they ll trade one or move one of them to a corner. It would be awesome if between Williams, Heathcott, Tyler and Flores we could develop our own home grown OF
Heathcott,Williams and Tyler sounds pretty good to me

Just a question for all u prospect guys because i ve heard very different reports. If by chance both Heathcott and Williams turnout to be what we hope who has the better tools to play CF. From what i understand it would be Williams at this point because he take better routs and reads the ball off the bat better but doesn't have nearly as strong of arm as Heathcott. Does anyone think that either of them could be above average corner OFers on both sides of the ball

[nyyfan4life]

that right up sounds about right and a pretty good reasons he vaulted up our prospect charts so quickly. Lets hope he can stay healthy and between him and Mason we have a really solid chance at developing our own stud CFer.

It will be interesting to see if they both develop well if they ll trade one or move one of them to a corner. It would be awesome if between Williams, Heathcott, Tyler and Flores we could develop our own home grown OF
Heathcott,Williams and Tyler sounds pretty good to me

Just a question for all u prospect guys because i ve heard very different reports. If by chance both Heathcott and Williams turnout to be what we hope who has the better tools to play CF. From what i understand it would be Williams at this point because he take better routs and reads the ball off the bat better but doesn't have nearly as strong of arm as Heathcott. Does anyone think that either of them could be above average corner OFers on both sides of the ball

Heathcott would be a better option for a corner outfield spot because he has a better power tool and a far stronger arm. Honestly, I think Heathcott has the better defensive skills at the moment also. He's just been injured a lot.