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  1. #1
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    Jeremy Hellickson

    What is causing the huge disparity between his traditional stats (era) and his advanced sta s (fip, fip-). Is he a freakish outlier or just very lucky?

  2. #2
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    Pitchers park+ a good defense

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    Quote Originally Posted by sexicano31 View Post
    Pitchers park+ a good defense
    Winna.

    Pitchers Park
    +
    Fly Ball Pitcher
    +
    RF Ben Zobrist - 24.4 career UZR/150
    CF BJ Upton - 4.0 career UZR/150
    LF Desmond Jennings - 19.9 career UZR/150

    Two of the top corner outfielders in the game + a decent centerfielder in a pitchers park make for a pretty good environment for a flyball pitcher to outperform his metrics.

    And I think he's still getting lucky. We'll see if can keep it up.

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    The rays will probably keep throwing good outfielders out there in that park.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPoon
    man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

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    also, .250 BABIP

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    Quote Originally Posted by sexicano31 View Post
    also, .250 BABIP
    that's probably got a lot to do with the defense they throw out there.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPoon
    man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

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    .
    Last edited by Bryrob58; 03-02-2014 at 04:08 PM.

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    Last edited by Bryrob58; 03-02-2014 at 04:07 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xnickx5757 View Post
    What is causing the huge disparity between his traditional stats (era) and his advanced sta s (fip, fip-). Is he a freakish outlier or just very lucky?
    Weak *** contact.


    The velocity off the bat against Hellickson is insanely weak.

    Which allows a low babip each game.

    He has a lot of rotation on each pitch, and that allows him to give up weaker contact.

    Most would say he won't sustain it, but he does have a pretty fantastic defense behind him that maybe he will.


    I for one think he will pull the Matt Cain.

    Consistently beat his periphs until he improved as a pitcher and eventually he was a better pitcher and could match his periphs.

    A lot of talent, but holy all mighty does he give up weak contact.


    3rd lowest velocity off the bat against Helly the last two years I believe (don't have the numbers in front of me, but he is one of the best at inducing weak contact when contact is made).


    Opposite problem to Lincecum this year who is getting crushed on high velocity swings.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bryrob58 View Post
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...efining-babip/

    I'll also give credit to Maddon's shifts.
    That's the thing though.

    The defense, the ballpark.

    He isn't the only Rays pitcher that is given these advantages. Although he might be their most fly ball inducing pitcher.

    But his babip is beating the rest of them usually.

    ala - weak contact

  11. #11
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    Where do you get these velocity off the bat readings? That would explain a lot in terms of guys getting "lucky" and "unlucky"

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    Here's my theory on how Hellickson does it better than others. Despite a seemingly average BB/9 rate in the majors, He has elite control.. Look at his walk rates throughout the minors. The guy can put it anywhere he wants it, almost any time he wants to.

    Madden draws up his defense and pitching staff to work in sync. If pitcher places pitches on spot X, the batter will hit it to Y the vast majority of the time, and Y is where Madden has his fielders set up. Hellickson pitches to spot X extremely well, and he's instructed to rather miss once in a while (which explains his seemingly high walk rates) than leave one in a spot that isn't conducive for the defense Madden has set up.

    He's benefited by two great corner outfielders and a good pitching park, but this is how he outpitches his FIP.

    There really needs to be a pitchFX stat for the % of pitches on the black. Guys who live there more often will draw weaker contact and therefore have lower BABIP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna28 View Post
    Where do you get these velocity off the bat readings? That would explain a lot in terms of guys getting "lucky" and "unlucky"
    I am a subscriber to a site. It's a paid thing, and I am not allowed to name the site on PSD lol (spamming reasons).

    But it 100% does explain babip bumps and dumps that people react/over-react to.

    Hellickson is an example of a pitcher with an extremely low velocity of the bat average. Maybe he is just hard to pick up, maybe he is just difficult to square up, maybe he just has a lot of rotation (he does) and it could be a combination of these things.

    I am not 100% sure exactly why he has this ability, but as long as he does, his babip is going to remain very low.

    Now imagine how good he will be when he actually learns how to control his walks and gets his strike outs to his minor league levels? He may never do this, but I would bet on the chance that he eventually does. Matt Cain is an example of a pitcher just like this that did this.

    Nobody ever understood why he always beat his peripherals. Well this is why (or it could be one reason, you also have to have a probability of a pitcher actually doing that at some point and being more 'lucky' than others over a time frame).

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    Quote Originally Posted by WrightStuff82 View Post
    Here's my theory on how Hellickson does it better than others. Despite a seemingly average BB/9 rate in the majors, He has elite control.. Look at his walk rates throughout the minors. The guy can put it anywhere he wants it, almost any time he wants to.

    Madden draws up his defense and pitching staff to work in sync. If pitcher places pitches on spot X, the batter will hit it to Y the vast majority of the time, and Y is where Madden has his fielders set up. Hellickson pitches to spot X extremely well, and he's instructed to rather miss once in a while (which explains his seemingly high walk rates) than leave one in a spot that isn't conducive for the defense Madden has set up.

    He's benefited by two great corner outfielders and a good pitching park, but this is how he outpitches his FIP.

    There really needs to be a pitchFX stat for the % of pitches on the black. Guys who live there more often will draw weaker contact and therefore have lower BABIP.
    What you defined was command, not control.

    Command is putting the ball where you want. Control is not allowing the walks.

    He doesn't have elite control, he has average control.

    His command is difficult to assess, because we don't know where the pitcher is trying to throw the pitch when he delivers it. We just know the results.

    I for one am a believer that a pitcher with good command, would also usually have at least above average control and not consciously allow walks since they are the cardinal sin of pitching.

    And from watching him pitch, it's not like he hits Jose Molina's glove that well, he can become scattered at times.

    Usually pitching command and control greatly improve as the pitcher gets closer to ages 27-28, and then it consistently gets better as they age. It's the one thing that pitchers improve on as they age. Usually command/control is weaker earlier in their careers and progressively gets better (obviously there are guys like Zambrano that do not do this).

    As to your last comment, there is, I have seen it before, but I don't remember where. But those that do this (guys like Kershaw, Halladay, Lee Hernandez etc) are the best pitchers in the game, but they aren't beating their periphs.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 07-31-2012 at 08:04 AM.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I am a subscriber to a site. It's a paid thing, and I am not allowed to name the site on PSD lol (spamming reasons).

    But it 100% does explain babip bumps and dumps that people react/over-react to.

    Hellickson is an example of a pitcher with an extremely low velocity of the bat average. Maybe he is just hard to pick up, maybe he is just difficult to square up, maybe he just has a lot of rotation (he does) and it could be a combination of these things.

    I am not 100% sure exactly why he has this ability, but as long as he does, his babip is going to remain very low.

    Now imagine how good he will be when he actually learns how to control his walks and gets his strike outs to his minor league levels? He may never do this, but I would bet on the chance that he eventually does. Matt Cain is an example of a pitcher just like this that did this.

    Nobody ever understood why he always beat his peripherals. Well this is why (or it could be one reason, you also have to have a probability of a pitcher actually doing that at some point and being more 'lucky' than others over a time frame).
    could it be some sort of deceptive movement? Can you look up Mo Rivera... I would guess he has low velocity off the bat... especially considering he has low BABIP with those horrible defenses of the Yanks.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPoon
    man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

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