Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Results 1 to 11 of 11

Thread: Rotation Health

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    856
    vCash
    1500

    Rotation Health

    As a Cub fan I have to admit I'm intrigued by the upside of the Cardinal rotation. However two of the pitchers, Garcia and Martinez, have lengthy recent injury track records. Wacha also missed significant time in 2014 due to an injury. And while Wainwright's 2015 injury was non-pitching related we're still talking about a 34 year old with a lot of innings on his resume.

    So I'm curious to see innings pitched predictions for the Cardinal staff (outside of Leake, since he's a pretty safe bet to throw 180+ innings). I'm sure the ERA's of all four will be just fine, its just a question of how many innings you can manage from them.

    Also with Alex Reyes being suspended for the first 50 games of the season I'm curious once the suspension has concluded how many minor league starts would likely be required to get Reyes ready for a big league rotation spot.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    8,672
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Prior22 View Post
    As a Cub fan I have to admit I'm intrigued by the upside of the Cardinal rotation. However two of the pitchers, Garcia and Martinez, have lengthy recent injury track records. Wacha also missed significant time in 2014 due to an injury. And while Wainwright's 2015 injury was non-pitching related we're still talking about a 34 year old with a lot of innings on his resume.

    So I'm curious to see innings pitched predictions for the Cardinal staff (outside of Leake, since he's a pretty safe bet to throw 180+ innings). I'm sure the ERA's of all four will be just fine, its just a question of how many innings you can manage from them.

    Also with Alex Reyes being suspended for the first 50 games of the season I'm curious once the suspension has concluded how many minor league starts would likely be required to get Reyes ready for a big league rotation spot.
    Carlos Martinez has no injury history to speak of. No more than any other pitcher. He had a shoulder tendinitis in 2012 in the minors to start the season and came back in May and pitched very well and then he's had this to end last season. A shoulder strain. The shoulder strain is much more concerning than the tired shoulder he had in 2012. But this still far from a significant history of injury.


    Garcia is definitely a huge risk every time he takes the mound.



    Wainwright is older for sure. No question and lots of pitches on him arm. That said, I'm not worried about his arm being tired when he pitched such a small amount last year, my only fear with wainwright would he his legs but he seemed stable on them last year


    Wacha's injury should be an issue going forward, if it was going to be then it should have popped up last year. They needed to find the right strengthening and rest program and they seem to have. I'm not worried about that at all



    That said its pitching, injuries happen every single day. It's always possible. I would guess Reyes will need about 10 starts to be ready to pitch in the majors. He got a few games in the fall league and we have other options to use if something comes up and Reyes isn't ready



    The reality is if we get that desperate that we NEED Reyes vs just having the luxury of having him then likely it doesn't matter anyway

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Alabama
    Posts
    1,342
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Prior22:30751240
    As a Cub fan I have to admit I'm intrigued by the upside of the Cardinal rotation. However two of the pitchers, Garcia and Martinez, have lengthy recent injury track records. Wacha also missed significant time in 2014 due to an injury. And while Wainwright's 2015 injury was non-pitching related we're still talking about a 34 year old with a lot of innings on his resume.

    So I'm curious to see innings pitched predictions for the Cardinal staff (outside of Leake, since he's a pretty safe bet to throw 180+ innings). I'm sure the ERA's of all four will be just fine, its just a question of how many innings you can manage from them.

    Also with Alex Reyes being suspended for the first 50 games of the season I'm curious once the suspension has concluded how many minor league starts would likely be required to get Reyes ready for a big league rotation spot.
    Outside of another injury Wacha and Martinez should push their IP forward in 2016. Wacha would do best IF he can get his FB command back where it should be.. Without that right now it's hard to pike up IP.
    Martinez just needs some more growth. People cry and whine about trading Miller away.. But no one talks about Martinez topping Miller's career best numbers in his first full turn as a SP.

    Garcia is just like Carp from a few years back... Great when healthy. Lol

    Imo the year off proly helped Waino fully recover and build up himself. No reason to expect Waino doesn't throw 200 plus IP.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    44,938
    vCash
    1000
    Imo. I think this is roughly the workload we will see at the end of the season

    Wainwright - 32 starts - 215 innings
    Martinez - 29 starts - 195 innings
    Wacha - 29 starts - 195 innings
    Leake - 32 starts - 198 innings
    Garcia - 17 starts - 102 innings

    Leaving 23 starts for other guys.
    I can see Mark Buehrle being signed early in the season on a Roger Clemens like 'I only pitch at home' kind of a deal or something like that. Who knows. I still think he is a good guy for us to bring in, especially considering he wants to pitch here.

    I have Wacha and Martinez each having some 15 day DL injury. Garcia will miss for something, who knows. Leake and Wainwright I expect full starts from.

    No rotation really has this. So this is obviously an optimistic outlook. It's so rare to have your 5 OD starters give you 700 innings, but you need to hope for it.

    I think Tim Cooney is the guy they give the other starts to. I'm thinking something like 15 starts and 80-85 innings out of the rotation. If Wacha or Martinez miss any significant time, you can bet on Cooney to get those innings. Same with Garcia.

    I don't think Reyes will see any MLB starts in 2016. If he gets the call this year, it will be to help the bullpen like Martinez did a few years ago, and it will be late in the season.


    Our 2017 rotation is more fun for me.

    1. Wainwright
    2. Martinez
    3. Wacha
    4. Garcia
    5. Lynn
    6. Leake
    7. Cooney
    8. Reyes

    That's Lynn and Garcia's last years, but both are expected to be a part of the team in 2017. So unless Martinez or Wacha or Wainwright have major injuries, you have a surplus of starers for one year. And I personally, would rather have Lynn extended than Garcia.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Alabama
    Posts
    1,342
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25:30751980
    Imo. I think this is roughly the workload we will see at the end of the season

    Wainwright - 32 starts - 215 innings
    Martinez - 29 starts - 195 innings
    Wacha - 29 starts - 195 innings
    Leake - 32 starts - 198 innings
    Garcia - 17 starts - 102 innings

    Leaving 23 starts for other guys.
    I can see Mark Buehrle being signed early in the season on a Roger Clemens like 'I only pitch at home' kind of a deal or something like that. Who knows. I still think he is a good guy for us to bring in, especially considering he wants to pitch here.

    I have Wacha and Martinez each having some 15 day DL injury. Garcia will miss for something, who knows. Leake and Wainwright I expect full starts from.

    No rotation really has this. So this is obviously an optimistic outlook. It's so rare to have your 5 OD starters give you 700 innings, but you need to hope for it.

    I think Tim Cooney is the guy they give the other starts to. I'm thinking something like 15 starts and 80-85 innings out of the rotation. If Wacha or Martinez miss any significant time, you can bet on Cooney to get those innings. Same with Garcia.

    I don't think Reyes will see any MLB starts in 2016. If he gets the call this year, it will be to help the bullpen like Martinez did a few years ago, and it will be late in the season.


    Our 2017 rotation is more fun for me.

    1. Wainwright
    2. Martinez
    3. Wacha
    4. Garcia
    5. Lynn
    6. Leake
    7. Cooney
    8. Reyes

    That's Lynn and Garcia's last years, but both are expected to be a part of the team in 2017. So unless Martinez or Wacha or Wainwright have major injuries, you have a surplus of starers for one year. And I personally, would rather have Lynn extended than Garcia.
    Garcia was extended way back b4 Lynn was in rotation.

    Don't forget about Marco Jeffy... If healthy Marco has options Lyons is proly the other LH in pen.

    Martinez bears to most watching. If he can take another step forward, imo he challenges Waino for staff Ace. Of course health permitting..

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    44,938
    vCash
    1000
    Quote Originally Posted by Teufelshunde4 View Post
    Garcia was extended way back b4 Lynn was in rotation.

    Don't forget about Marco Jeffy... If healthy Marco has options Lyons is proly the other LH in pen.

    Martinez bears to most watching. If he can take another step forward, imo he challenges Waino for staff Ace. Of course health permitting..
    I think Marco becomes the Seth Maness of the left side of our bullpen

    Garcia was extended back when. Who is in our rotation in 2018 is a different question.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    44,938
    vCash
    1000
    Btw, this work was pretty good on MLBTradeRumors

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/b...TJSRiskFactors

    It shows that Lynn was a very high risk for needing TJS

    Martinez is fairly high too, Wacha less so, but still up there (younger guys are more inclined to need it than older guys).

    Martinez, as of today, is projected to need TJS at some point 4 out of 5 times. Wacha 3 out of 5 times.

    Obviously, those are simply percentages, and every year they go without needing it the less likely they are to ever need it (obviously). But the work was pretty good and made a lot of sense.

    fwiw, the only interesting Cubbie is Rondon. Cole from the Pirates seem fairly likely. Iglesias from the Reds seems very likely.

    It's worth a read.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    8,672
    vCash
    1500
    It's an interesting idea.



    Honestly I think a big part of tommy John going foreward and happening now with younger guys is the fact there's so many guys now specializing as pitchers from a young age



    Even when I played in just rec league baseball there were guys who were just there to pitch. Obviously they played other positions but well over 90% of their working out and practicing was dedicated to pitching

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    44,938
    vCash
    1000
    I can appreciate that the data that they used was based on what were common consistencies in those that have TJ. They basically proved that younger players that throw hard and throw a lot of sliders and have had other injuries are the most likely to need it. Additionally, not having a consistent release point. While older players with consistent release points don't seem very likely to need it. Lance Lynn with all of his max effort pitches was pretty much a promise to get it at some point. I find the data interesting and neat.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    856
    vCash
    1500
    A couple more issues I'm curious about. Matt Holliday is still a great on-base threat, however his power has dropped significantly. Is there an expectation that Holliday could regain some of his lost power? Or will he continue to be a Heyward style hitter(high OBP/low slugging).

    Peralta, meanwhile, has seen his OPS drop the past two seasons (including a big second half tailspin in 2015). Is continuing Peralta declining expected? And if so will Gyorko be a candidate to replace him at Shortstop?

    Also I read an article talking about the reason behind the rejuvenation of John Lackey's career a few years back. Lackey significantly cut back on his changeup and curveball usage, while increasing the amount of times he used his fastball and slider. Considering how much Lackey relies on his four seam fastball if he were to lose a few miles on it would his typical quality location be enough to compensate.

    Should around 200 innings and an ERA around 3.60 be fair to expect in 2016? I'm expecting an increase in ERA considering a 1.21 WHIP tends to correlate to an ERA of about half a run higher or so.
    Last edited by Prior22; 02-24-2016 at 07:52 AM.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    8,672
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Prior22 View Post
    A couple more issues I'm curious about. Matt Holliday is still a great on-base threat, however his power has dropped significantly. Is there an expectation that Holliday could regain some of his lost power? Or will he continue to be a Heyward style hitter(high OBP/low slugging).

    Peralta, meanwhile, has seen his OPS drop the past two seasons (including a big second half tailspin in 2015). Is continuing Peralta declining expected? And if so will Gyorko be a candidate to replace him at Shortstop?

    Also I read an article talking about the reason behind the rejuvenation of John Lackey's career a few years back. Lackey significantly cut back on his changeup and curveball usage, while increasing the amount of times he used his fastball and slider. Considering how much Lackey relies on his four seam fastball if he were to lose a few miles on it would his typical quality location be enough to compensate.

    Should around 200 innings and an ERA around 3.60 be fair to expect in 2016? I'm expecting an increase in ERA considering a 1.21 WHIP tends to correlate to an ERA of about half a run higher or so.
    Holliday's power has dropped but I fully expect him to be back around .440-.460 slugging wise next year if he's healthy. If you look at his splits in 2014 it was a slow start power wise that dropped his slugging. After June the lowest he slugged was .489, 2015 he started slow power wise and never got a chance to get it going again because of injury

    His focus this offseason has been the power and getting it started earlier and more consistently. He's really more of a better offensive version of Heyward. In a lot of ways he's what Heyward was supposed to be offensively.


    But if Holliday is healthy I'm expecting a season with a .370ish OBP and a .450ish slugging



    As for Peralta, I don't think it's decline that killed him last hear, it was over use. The guy was warn down to the nub and then rubbed more. Same thing with kolten Wong. Both were exhausted and everyone could see it but when Pete Kozma is the alternative then you're basically forced to use them since 60% of Peralta and Wong is better than 110% of Pete Kozma. This was a major fail by the front office but then again this is why Gyorko was brought in.

    I fully expect Gyorko to start 15-20 games at 2B this year and at least 10 at SS along with Greg Garcia grabbing a few and Aledmys Diaz will factor in late this season IMO. I would expect about 135 to 145 starts for Peralta and Wong this season if both stay healthy and both should be much more productive with the rest

    Think of it this was. There are roughly 1440 innings to play before you add in extra innings and all that. Peralta played 1287.2 of those innings at SS. Kolten Wong played the exact same amount at 2B. This is a lot of innings and a lot of games on an older player and a younger player who has never played that much. There was no excuse for Pete Kozma to be on this roster, it still infuriates me


    As for Lackey. Last year may have been his best year ever, he definitely won't repeat a year like that. But I would say Lackey will most likely throw 200 innings, give you an ERA around 3.70, he will keep you in almost every ball game he pitches and will go out and throw a few gems with it. So he's a really good guy to slide into that 3rd/4th spot in the rotation.

    Provided he's healthy he will definitely eat the innings they're need him to eat

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •