Leafs Prospect Thread 2012-13

[Lavy16]

Why take the high schooler in the 5th round when Seth Griffith of the London Knights was still available. The guy had 45 goals for the London Knights last year.

[blujaysrock]

Hell, I'd rather see them take Ebert in the 5th over the highschool kid.

Like you said, just go for guys who know they're going to be bottom 6 guys and play with 100% every shift.

Similar to Rupert. That's the only pick of his (outside of Finn and Rielly) that I don't mind.

[jrice9]

I'm not sure why it matters where the players are from.

You want to take the best players regardless of where there from. I think shooting for potential can work out and looking at guys who can make the NHL in a limited role works either. I'm not saying Burke is good at the later rounds (havnt really seen the evidence either way to be honest) but I'm just saying his draft record is what matters, not where the players are from.

Also in regards to Saginaw and Plymouth. From 2000-2007, here is what they produced after the top 60 in the draft (later picks as you stated). Obviously Sagninaw didnt start till the 2002-2003 season:

2000:

Plymouth:
1 Draft Pick (Jared Newman 110th overall)
0 NHL Players

2001:

Plymouth:
2 Draft Pick (Rob Zepp 110th overall), Cole Jarrett (141st overall)
0 NHL Players (Jarrett played 1 NHL game)

2002:
Plymouth:
3 Draft Pick (Gregory Campbell 67th overall)(Jonas Fieldler 86th overall), James Wisniewski (156th overall)
2 NHL Players (Campbell has played 521 NHL games) Wisnieski has played 377 NHL games)

2003:
Saginaw:
1 Draft Picks: (Paul Bissonette 121st overall), (Mike Brown(different) 153rd overall)
1 NHL Players (Bissonette has played 135 NHL games)

Plymouth:
3 Draft Picks (David Liffiton 63rd overall), John Mitchell (158th overall), Jeff Weber (235th overall)
1 NHL Players (Liffiton only played 7 NHL games) ( Mitchell has played 222 NHL games)

2004:
Saginaw:
1 Draft Pick (Jean-Michel Rizk 195th overall)
0 NHL Players

Plymouth:
2 Draft Pick (Vaclav Meidl 81st overall), Gino Pisellini (149th overall)
0 NHL Players

2005:
Saginaw:
3 Draft Pick (Tom Pyatt 107th overall), (Patrick McNeill 118th overall) (Marek Kvapil 163rd overall)
1 NHL Player (Pyatt has played in 175 NHL games )

Plymouth:
2 Draft Pick (Dan Collins 90th overall) (Ryan McGinnis 184th overall)
0 NHL Players

2006:
Saginaw:
1 Draft Pick (Ryan Daniels 151st overall)
0 NHL Players

Plymouth:
2 Draft Pick (Tom Sestito 85th overall), John Armstrong (87th overall)
0.5 NHL Player (Sestito has played only 27 career games but may be an NHL regular sometime in the near future)

2007 Sarnia:
0 Draft Picks
0 NHL Players

Plymouth:
2 Draft Pick (Chris Terry 132nd overall), Brett Bellemore (162nd overall)
0 NHL Players

Final Numbers:
Plymouth They have produced 3.5 NHLers for their 16 picks.
This is a rate of 21.875%.


However, its not really above average. The first 15 picks of round 3 have an average hit rate (at a higher criteria than mine) of 26%, while the rest of the third round is 21%. Early in round 4 is actually 23% as well. Outside of that the numbers fall vary 9-13%.

Saginaw was 2/6 which is around 33%.

http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=267960

Obviously these numbers are small and fairly meaningless but I'm not sure that your statement was correct that players from these teams are more project-able.

Edit: Plymouth's numbers are about average and Saginaw has produced very few late round picks (nailing 2 of them) but its way too small a sample size.

[Lavy16]

In 2007 you have Sarnia listed

[Lavy16]

Those numbers you have listed emphasize my point if you start with the more recent years from 2005 and on...that's when both those franchises started to turn things around

[jrice9]

In 2007 you have Sarnia listed

Good call,

I just think that with the way hockey is, with the amount of scouting and knowledge discriminating based on team/league is not the intelligent thing to do. I would say the same thing if Burke is drafting high school guys on purpose

[jrice9]

Those numbers you have listed emphasize my point if you start with the more recent years from 2005 and on...that's when both those franchises started to turn things around

But I don't really get the point.

Its a tiny sample size and Plymouth has only produced 1 late round NHLer since 2005 and its Tom Sestito.

I'm not impressed by this supposed innateness of Plymouth.

[jrice9]

Like in the same period (2005 onward) US high schools have produced Keith Yandle and Marc Fayne in 2005, Nick Bonino in 2007, Derek Stepan (Admittedly with a lot more picks)

[Lavy16]

But I don't really get the point.

Its a tiny sample size and Plymouth has only produced 1 late round NHLer since 2005 and its Tom Sestito.I'm not impressed by this supposed innateness of Plymouth.

perfect bottom 6 player from Plymouth tough...I swore Saginaw and Plymouth have produced a lot of bottom 6 players

[Lavy16]

Good call,

I just think that with the way hockey is, with the amount of scouting and knowledge discriminating based on team/league is not the intelligent thing to do. I would say the same thing if Burke is drafting high school guys on purpose

I find it funny that you say this when your previous post was about stats and percentages...why not draft from the leagues that produce the highest percentage of NHLers in the later rounds...I'm not saying don't go US High School or Euro, but remember how many bottom 6 players come out of the CHL