Mark Trumbo vs Allen Craig

[sfgiants5518]

Who's better?

[Fly]

Trumbo. He's younger, and while Craig's more versatile in the field, he certainly is no spectacular defender. Trumbo also has much higher upside with the bat.

[todu82]

Trumbo easily.

[Jeffy25]

Craig easily

It's not even a discussion

Last two years
Trumbo: .273/.316/.518 - .354 wOBA, 124 wRC+

Craig: .322/.382/.586 - .416 wOBA, 168 wRC+


This is a laughable comparison, and I mean that in the sense that when we compared Wright to Freese, this is way worse.

[VRP723]

Come on Jeffy. Trumbo also has 450 more PA's in the past two years. Craig hasn't accumulated enough AB's to take what he's done seriously. Trumbo hasn't either, but he's much closer. Until Craig gets 500 AB's and does this, it's Trumbo.

[Jeffy25]

Come on Jeffy. Trumbo also has 450 more PA's in the past two years. Craig hasn't accumulated enough AB's to take what he's done seriously. Trumbo hasn't either, but he's much closer. Until Craig gets 500 AB's and does this, it's Trumbo.

So because of his knee cap injury we should ignore his numbers in two separate seasons?

I understand that Craig has missed some serious time overall,

Craig is at 130 PA this year, and 219 PA last year (not counting his post-season last year and his 1.013 OPS)

In total he is at 396 thus far the last two years, and is playing healthy right now.

Trumbo has not hit like Craig in any sample size, either season. You have 400 more plate appearances by Trumbo, I won't deny that. But I think it's pretty clear that Craig is the better hitter and is a pretty versatile defensive player.

And you almost have a full seasons worth of PA by Craig, or you will have it by the All-Star game over the last two years. It's pretty clear, at least to me, that Craig is easy the better hitter.

[VRP723]

So because of his knee cap injury we should ignore his numbers in two separate seasons?

I understand that Craig has missed some serious time overall,

Craig is at 130 PA this year, and 219 PA last year (not counting his post-season last year and his 1.013 OPS)

In total he is at 396 thus far the last two years, and is playing healthy right now.

Trumbo has not hit like Craig in any sample size, either season. You have 400 more plate appearances by Trumbo, I won't deny that. But I think it's pretty clear that Craig is the better hitter and is a pretty versatile defensive player.

And you almost have a full seasons worth of PA by Craig, or you will have it by the All-Star game over the last two years. It's pretty clear, at least to me, that Craig is easy the better hitter.

That's 349 not 396, check your math.

He essentially has half a season worth of PA's. Also, stepping aside from the numbers, Trumbo is a much more highly regarded player around the baseball community, which matters until the numbers can speak for themselves.

I'd take Trumbo for right now, and going forwards.

[Jeffy25]

Last two years
Trumbo: .273/.316/.518 - .354 wOBA, 124 wRC+

Craig: .322/.382/.586 - .416 wOBA, 168 wRC+

That's eye popping. Craig could suck over the next 400 plate appearances catching up to Trumbo and still easily be as good. For Craig to tie Trumbo in slash line.


What Allen Craig has to do in his next 416 PA to tie Mark Trumbo in slash line and wOBA:
411 AB - 98 Hits - 53 1B - 22 2B - 1 3B - 22 HR - 53 RBI - 5 BB - 98 K - 35 Runs scored

Trumbo walks 5.5% of the time, to Craig's 10.1%. And he strikes out more too, 22% to Craigs 20%.

Wanna know the slash line of Craig in those 416 PA/411 At bats to reach Trumbo?
.238/.248/.457

Walk 1% of the time, strike out 24% of the time, and carry a .296 wOBA

This isn't an issue of limited sample size. Craig is easily the better hitter, and will obviously hit better than that remaining slash line over his next 400 at bats, since he has never, at any level of his professional career hit that poorly.

I get that Craig is a year and a half older than Trumbo. But he is obviously a better ball player than Trumbo.

[Jeffy25]

That's 349 not 396, check your math.

Playoffs, I included playoffs in my above post as well. Since your issue with Craig is limited sample size, over the last two years he also added 50 plate appearances in the post-season. And he was actually a little worse wOBA wise in the playoffs than he has been in the last two regular seasons.

He essentially has half a season worth of PA's. Also, stepping aside from the numbers, Trumbo is a much more highly regarded player around the baseball community, which matters until the numbers can speak for themselves.

I'd take Trumbo for right now, and going forwards.

He is more highly regarded? Well A.J. Ellis isn't a highly regarded player in the baseball community, and Buster Posey is. But who would you rather have had thus far this season? The one that is more highly regarded, or the one that has actually played better?

[Wrigheyes4MVP]

Trumbo

[Jeffy25]

From this day forward. You guys can have Trumbo, and I'll take Craig. We will see who is more productive the rest of the year. One of us will bump this thread at the end of the season?

[Pinstripe power]

Trumbo

[VRP723]

Playoffs, I included playoffs in my above post as well. Since your issue with Craig is limited sample size, over the last two years he also added 50 plate appearances in the post-season. And he was actually a little worse wOBA wise in the playoffs than he has been in the last two regular seasons.

He is more highly regarded? Well A.J. Ellis isn't a highly regarded player in the baseball community, and Buster Posey is. But who would you rather have had thus far this season? The one that is more highly regarded, or the one that has actually played better?

So because once in a while a player defies projections we should ignore all scouting on any players and instead use 300 AB sample sizes to start and end any discussions?

From this day forward. You guys can have Trumbo, and I'll take Craig. We will see who is more productive the rest of the year. One of us will bump this thread at the end of the season?

You're smart enough to know that one year of sample size for 26 year olds isn't nearly enough to make a statement on who's a better player. Hell, I'll throw your own argument back in your face. Who's a better baseball player, Posey or Ellis? No one can deny it's Posey, regardless of Ellis' great season.

[Jeffy25]

So because once in a while a player defies projections we should ignore all scouting on any players and instead use 300 AB sample sizes to start and end any discussions?

The question was which player is better. Craig is going to have to play at career worst rates over his next 400 plate appearances to just tie Trumbo.

And what scouting repots? Are there any scouting reports that show Trumbo to be a better player?

He has a lot of power, that's his game. He walks less, strikes out more, hits for less of an average, and has managed to carry less power (lower ISO, lower slugging)

You're smart enough to know that one year of sample size for 26 year olds isn't nearly enough to make a statement on who's a better player. Hell, I'll throw your own argument back in your face. Who's a better baseball player, Posey or Ellis? No one can deny it's Posey, regardless of Ellis' great season.

I know it's not enough of a sample size....for either player. But Craig is destroying Trumbo. We aren't talking about 100-150 plate appearances, it's still almost 400, and we aren't talking about a 10 or even 20% difference in performance. Craig is way out performing Trumbo thus far in their big league careers. Even the thing that Trumbo is best at (power), Craig is out performing him in.

Craig will regress no doubt, and I think Trumbo is more a .360 wOBA type of hitter, not a .350, and he might even reach .380 at times. I think Craig is a .380 at the worst. He is a very strong, and good hitter.

Posey is probably the better player, but if the results continue to support Ellis, I would say he is better. Moving forward, you are probably better off betting on Posey, but as long as this year isn't a fluke for Ellis, he would be the right bet. We don't know yet.


Same goes with Craig vs Trumbo I guess. But in all the data that we have, Craig has destroyed Trumbo

Btw, Craig was a lot better hitter in the minor leagues than Trumbo too.

I think Trumbo's hype is from his rookie power performance last year, and his break out performance this year. But he still isn't hitting as well as Craig, and he never has....ever in either players professional career. Craig doesn't have any hype because he doesn't have that full season yet. If he can remain healthy the rest of the year, this would be his first healthy year in his two big league seasons.

[Jeffy25]

Friendly wager of Trumbo vs Craig? What I mean is, we bump this thread at the end of the season and see where each player is?