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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Westside...
    Posts
    1,268

    sources: Andre Ethier & Dodgers are close to 5 yr extension

    sources: Andre Ethier & Dodgers are close to completing contract extension. deal is $85M over 5 years

    Ethier's new deal with the #Dodgers includes a 6th-year vesting option.

    Jon Heyman
    Lakers Wishlist...

    Trade Pau for Iggy/Koufos or Ellis/udoh
    Resign Dwight
    Amnesty Kobe
    Hope Artest opts out
    Decline Meeks option
    Buy-out duhon
    Pray nash retires
    Tank 2013-2014 season

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    48,805
    That's more than I would give him. But that's me.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    1,729
    Very good hitter, don't get me wrong. Just a bit over payed.
    5 years, 65-70m sounds more reasonable.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Westside...
    Posts
    1,268
    gotta agree with both of you... i think its to much..
    Lakers Wishlist...

    Trade Pau for Iggy/Koufos or Ellis/udoh
    Resign Dwight
    Amnesty Kobe
    Hope Artest opts out
    Decline Meeks option
    Buy-out duhon
    Pray nash retires
    Tank 2013-2014 season

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    86,552
    Wow that is a lot...Not Howard a lot but a lot

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    13,210
    thats market value not hometown discount. agree with most of the people.
    not the greatest of times to do this, when he is in a slump(although it could be kemp related, no protection)

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    10,753
    It could have been worse.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    48,805
    Predictive WAR for upcoming seasons for Andre Ethier


    2013, age 31 season - 2.5 WAR
    2014, age 32 season - 2.5 WAR
    2015, age 33 season - 2.0 WAR
    2016, age 34 season - 1.5 WAR
    2017, age 35 season - 1.0 WAR
    2018, age 36 season - 0.7 WAR
    Total - 10.2 WAR, 9.5 without option year

    Let's throw out 2018, not sure what the vesting option is for, but let's just count the five seasons, 2013-2017

    WAR value per dollar based on total WAR and total baseball salaries.
    2013 - $5.5 million per WAR
    2014 - 5.5 million per WAR
    2015 - 6 million per WAR
    2016 - 6 million per WAR
    2017 - 6.5 million per

    2013 - 13.75 million value
    2014 - 13.75 million value
    2015 - 12 million value
    2016 - 9 million value
    2017 - 6.5 million value
    Total - 55 million dollar total value

    And these totals are actually somewhat generous, considering he doesn't have any 3.0 rWAR seasons, and only has one 3.0 fWAR season (08 - 3.5) and this extension starts when he is 31.

    Not a smart deal at all IMO.

    He is playing great this year, and is on pace to go well over 3.0 WAR finally, I think this looks like a massive overpay unless he is going to be signicantly better over the next five years than he has been through his 6.5 years thus far. Even if he just repeats his current performance over the last 6.5 years over the next 5-6 years, it's going to look like an overpay. When your best case scenario is that a 31 year old repeats what he has done through his 20's, I think you are going to be unhappy with what you are getting.

    He is also, possibly a guy that will age well. But that isn't something I would pay someone expecting them to do.


    I'm sure VRP is going to defend this post. But I don't think this was a good price to extend him for, even with the new ownership.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 06-12-2012 at 01:18 AM.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    North Orange County
    Posts
    9,496
    ^Cool
    Lakers, Dodgers, Kings
    Bring Back the Los Angeles Rams

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Posts
    6,167
    ^ the typical Dodger fan response...a one word/acronym response to something intelligent posted


    San Francisco Giants Trophy Wall

  11. #11
    sexicano31 Guest
    Vesting option is worth 17.5mil

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Chapel Hill, NC
    Posts
    4,521
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Predictive WAR for upcoming seasons for Andre Ethier


    2013, age 31 season - 2.5 WAR
    2014, age 32 season - 2.5 WAR
    2015, age 33 season - 2.0 WAR
    2016, age 34 season - 1.5 WAR
    2017, age 35 season - 1.0 WAR
    2018, age 36 season - 0.7 WAR
    Total - 10.2 WAR, 9.5 without option year

    Let's throw out 2018, not sure what the vesting option is for, but let's just count the five seasons, 2013-2017

    WAR value per dollar based on total WAR and total baseball salaries.
    2013 - $5.5 million per WAR
    2014 - 5.5 million per WAR
    2015 - 6 million per WAR
    2016 - 6 million per WAR
    2017 - 6.5 million per

    2013 - 13.75 million value
    2014 - 13.75 million value
    2015 - 12 million value
    2016 - 9 million value
    2017 - 6.5 million value
    Total - 55 million dollar total value

    And these totals are actually somewhat generous, considering he doesn't have any 3.0 rWAR seasons, and only has one 3.0 fWAR season (08 - 3.5) and this extension starts when he is 31.

    Not a smart deal at all IMO.

    He is playing great this year, and is on pace to go well over 3.0 WAR finally, I think this looks like a massive overpay unless he is going to be signicantly better over the next five years than he has been through his 6.5 years thus far. Even if he just repeats his current performance over the last 6.5 years over the next 5-6 years, it's going to look like an overpay. When your best case scenario is that a 31 year old repeats what he has done through his 20's, I think you are going to be unhappy with what you are getting.

    He is also, possibly a guy that will age well. But that isn't something I would pay someone expecting them to do.


    I'm sure VRP is going to defend this post. But I don't think this was a good price to extend him for, even with the new ownership.
    They paid market value to keep him in town. Rare is the long term deal that makes sense when the numbers are crunched, but money is no object for this ownership and they keep a RF in town that can mash the ball.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    48,805
    Quote Originally Posted by ugadawgsfan17 View Post
    They paid market value to keep him in town. Rare is the long term deal that makes sense when the numbers are crunched, but money is no object for this ownership and they keep a RF in town that can mash the ball.
    Against righties only


    I can understand why ownership did it. But I'd say they could have gotten more value out of right field for less money on the open market honestly.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Chapel Hill, NC
    Posts
    4,521
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Against righties only


    I can understand why ownership did it. But I'd say they could have gotten more value out of right field for less money on the open market honestly.
    Explain. The gamble you take in procuring a better bang for the buck signing is a huge one. You let Ethier go and come up empty in FA and you're hamstrung in a city that absolutely demands contention from here forward.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    Cali
    Posts
    2,463
    This is a typical Dodgers move. Re-sign their homegrown talent not while they are up and coming, but right at their peak. Note: Matt Kemp, now Ethier, and soon to be Clayton Kershaw. Why they sign players so late is beyond me.

    That said, I don't mind the amount if Magic and Co are willing to spend the big dough. If this keeps us out of the big bats, then they screwed up, but if Ethier is going to complement another star, good for us.

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