I cant tell you how many times Ive told JB to stop pointing at HCA or Superior Win-Loss records as an indicator of talent or predicator of team success. While SRS isnt perfect it is far and away the best single measurement we have for measuring a teams level of play. Personally my preferred method of choice includes a similar stance to SRS only limited to the teams most frequently used lineups (In the playoffs these are the only lineups used) along with a few subjective modifiers (health/performance vs good teams/playoff rep etc..). Unfortunately we only have that data for teams of recent memory so SRS/HCA will be the main prognosticator here.
I found it hilarious that one of the very first playoff series ever in 1947 between the Philly Warriors and St.Louis Bombers was also the first to prove that superior records are meaningless compared to superior efficiency differentials as the lower seeded Warriors "upset" the Bombers. In actuality however the Warriors sported the superior SRS, the overall efficiency marks and should have been favored. This happens so often that I never found it necessary to create this thread, still its an argument that needs to be filtered out of our consciousness, hopefully this will put it to rest for good.
Keep in mind this isnt meant to bash JB, I have nothing but respect for the man, hes a guy who can take everything you dish and not let it effect your relationship personally, hes always been a cool guy regardless of how much I disagree with him.
The following is a list of EVERY series where HCA/W-L Records and SRS/EFF disagreed on who to favor and who won out, as you will see this is a one sided argument. BOLD = When HCA/WIN-LOSS% actually won out
5/9
PRE-60'S ERA5/6Code:1947 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Philly vs St.Louis PHILLY 1950 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Lakers vs Nationals Lakers 1951 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Nationals vs Knicks Knicks 1951 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Knicks vs Celtics Knicks Win 1952 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Lakers vs Royals Lakers 1954 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Lakers vs Nationals Nationals 1957 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Warriors vs Nationals Nationals 1959 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Pistons vs Lakers Lakers 1959 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Nationals vs Knicks Nationals
The 60's8/16Code:1961 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Nationals vs Warriors Nationals 1966 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Hawks vs Bullets Hawks 1968 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Lakers vs Celtics Celtics 1969 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Knicks vs Bullets Knicks 1969 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Celtics vs 76'ers Celtics 1969 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Celtics vs Lakers Celtics
The 70's
Code:1970 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Lakers vs Hawks Lakers 1974 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Bulls vs Pistons Pistons 1976 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Bucks vs Pistons Bucks 1976 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Suns vs Sonics Suns 1976 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Cavs vs Celtics Celtics 1977 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Cavs vs Bullets Bullets 1977 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Blazers vs Nuggets Blazers 1977 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Warriors vs Lakers Lakers 1977 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Blazers vs Lakers Blazers 1977 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Blazers vs 76'ers Blazers 1978 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Lakers vs Sonics Sonics 1978 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Sonics vs Nuggets Sonics 1979 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Hawks vs Rockets Hawks 1979 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Lakers vs Sonics Lakers 1979 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Suns vs Sonics Sonics 1979 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Spurs vs Wizards Wizards
6/8
The 80's
Code:1981 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Bulls vs Knicks Bulls 1982 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Bullets vs Nets Bullets 1984 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Knicks vs Pistons Knicks 1985 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Blazers vs Mavs Blazers 1985 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Lakers vs Celtics Lakers 1988 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Mavs vs Nuggets Mavs 1988 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Pistons vs Lakers Lakers 1989 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Lakers vs Pistons Pistons
The 90's
7/16
10/16Code:1990 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Suns vs Jazz Suns 1990 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Suns vs Lakers Suns 1990 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT 76'ers vs Bulls Bulls 1990 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Suns vs Blazers Blazers 1993 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Cavs vs Bulls Bulls 1993 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Sonics vs Suns Suns 1993 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Bulls vs Knicks Bulls 1994 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Knicks vs Bulls Bulls 1994 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Suns vs Rockets Rockets 1994 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Knicks vs Rockets Rockets 1995 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Bulls vs Hornets Bulls 1997 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Jazz vs Spurs Jazz 1998 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Hornets vs Hawks Hawks 1998 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Lakers vs Jazz Jazz 1999 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Pistons vs Hawks Hawks 1999 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Blazers vs Jazz Blazers
The 2000's
Code:2001 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Blazers vs Lakers Lakers 2001 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Kings vs Lakers Lakers 2002 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Magic vs Hornets Hornets 2002 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Celtics vs Pistons Celtics 2003 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Lakers vs Twolves Lakers 2003 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Nets vs Pistons Nets 2004 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Pistons vs Pacers Pistons 2004 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Pistons vs Lakers Pistons 2005 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Pacers vs Celtics Pacers 2005 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Spurs vs Suns Spurs 2007 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Spurs vs Suns Spurs 2007 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Bulls vs Pistons Pistons 2008 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Jazz vs Rockets Jazz 2008 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Suns vs Spurs Spurs 2010 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Spurs vs Mavs Spurs 2010 (SRS) (W-L) RESULT Spurs vs Suns Suns
17/28
Teams with Identical Records
1954
Celtics vs Nationals = SRS Prevails
1955
Nationals vs Pistons = SRS Fails
1956
Lakers vs Hawks = SRS Fails
1957
Lakers vs Pistons = SRS Prevails
1957
Lakers vs Hawks = SRS Prevails
1958
Royals vs Pistons = SRS Fails
1975
Celtics vs Bullets = SRS Prevails
1976
Braves vs 76'ers = SRS Prevails
1977
Spurs vs Celtics = SRS Fails
1978
Cavs vs Knicks = SRS Fails
1979
Lakers vs Nuggets = SRS Prevails
1980
Rockets vs Spurs = SRS Prevails
1981
Kings vs Rockets = SRS Prevails
1981
Celtics vs 76'ers = SRS Fails
1982
Suns vs Nuggets = SRS Prevails
1990
Blazers vs Pistons = SRS Fails
1993
Rockets vs Sonics = SRS Prevails
1996
Knicks vs Cavs = SRS Fails
1998
Spurs vs Suns = SRS Fails
1998
Lakers vs Sonics = SRS Prevails
1998
Jazz vs Bulls = SRS Prevails
1999
Lakers vs Rockets = SRS Prevails
2000
76'ers vs Hornets = SRS Fails
2001
Mavs vs Jazz = SRS Fails
2002
Lakers vs Spurs = SRS Prevails
2003
Spurs vs Mavs = SRS Fails
2008
Spurs vs Hornets = SRS Fails
2010
Jazz vs Nuggets = SRS Prevails
Summary
Out of 99 Playoff Series the team with the higher SRS won 58 times, considering HCA is suppose to be a heavy advantage this is a drastic figure. And we're not done yet, part2 of this installment will be to contextualize those scores by recognizing player availability and any other factors you guys feel will skew the results in one way or another. For example Ive excluded the Spurs vs Suns series of 2000 because Duncan was unavailable, to prevent bias this was the only series I excluded. Looking at the results however I found many such instances.
So what say you, if you were going to Vegas what system would you trust?
Results 1 to 15 of 15
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10-20-2010, 10:24 PM #1
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HCA/W-L vs SRS/EFF aka The Thread JB FEARS
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10-21-2010, 12:54 AM #2
Fly as an understatement
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Good stuff
I noticed that the odds-makers tend to give a lot of weight to HCA, especially in the playoffs.
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10-21-2010, 01:12 AM #3
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Originally Posted by Chronz
Good stuff here.
But what I want to know is how is the team with the higher SRS that won 58 out of 99 series better than the team that had HCA out of those 99 series? I would bet the team with HCA wins 75-85% of the time."Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships."
- Michael Jordan
Thanks MJ-Bulls for the picture.
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10-21-2010, 02:47 PM #4
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Let it go JB, if the team with higher SRS won 58 times then it means the team with HCA lost 58 times out of 99, meaning they won 41 games good for a .41 winning%. Originally Posted by JordansBulls
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10-24-2010, 12:31 AM #5
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Interesting. I am unfamiliar with SRS though. I mean, I know what it stands for, but where do you find SRS data?
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10-24-2010, 08:32 PM #6
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Do you mean how its calculated or where you can find the results? The results are posted on BBR in their league/team profiles. Originally Posted by daleja424
For an explanation on how the system works its here
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=39
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10-24-2010, 08:35 PM #7
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sweet Chronz. thanks a ton.
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03-27-2011, 01:11 PM #8
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This year,
Bulls
SRS: 6.75 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.3 (23rd of 30)
Expected W-L: 54-18 (1st of 30)
Miami
SRS: 6.81 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.0 (20th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-19 (2nd of 30)"Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships."
- Michael Jordan
Thanks MJ-Bulls for the picture.
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05-23-2011, 11:22 AM #9
NyK Till I Die
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Teams that advanced despite having inferior SRS ratings:
Hawks
Thunder
Grizzlies
Mavericks
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05-23-2011, 04:36 PM #10
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All but the Thunder had inferior win-loss records as well, but yes this has truly been the year for the under dog, atleast in the West. Originally Posted by KnicksorBust
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05-27-2011, 07:56 PM #11
what's "shift"?
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Great work Chronz
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07-02-2011, 02:08 AM #12
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My TOP 10 favorite NBA players of All Time
1. Kobe Bryant
2. Allen Iverson
3. Reggie Miller
4. Andrew Bynum
5. Wilt Chamberlain
6. Steve Nash
7. Lamar Odom
8. Ben Gordon
9. Ray Allen
10. Carmelo Anthony
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07-02-2011, 08:30 AM #13
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This needs to be updated because the Mavs beat both the Lakers and Heat with a lower Defensive and Offensive Rating and lower SRS rating.
"Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships."
- Michael Jordan
Thanks MJ-Bulls for the picture.
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06-10-2012, 08:58 AM #14
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Hey Chronz where is part 2 of this?
"Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships."
- Michael Jordan
Thanks MJ-Bulls for the picture.
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06-12-2012, 12:49 PM #15
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Good question JB
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