How many wins does Derek Dooley need to keep his job?

[steelcityroller]

They were saying today on local sports talk radio that they are saying that he needs 8 wins to keep his job and that they will be interested in Bobby Petrino.

[steelcityroller]

Well it didn't take long they are already talking about who else they want as the head coach after yesterday. There is still room for Tennessee to have a good season.

But honestly some stats that don't help his cause....

Against SEC opponents Tennessee has been outscored 279-128 in the 2nd half. Even at LA Tech his teams were outscored in the 2nd half. Furthermore he has never won a game while tied or trailing at halftime.

[steelcityroller]

If you believe the radio shows then Derek Dooley needs to go at least 7-5 or win one of these next two games to keep the job beyond this year. They are sitting at 3-3 right now with Alabama and South Carolina the next 2 weeks. If they lose those as expected they will be 3-5 and more importantly Derek Dooley will be 0-15 against ranked opponents and 4-17 against SEC opponents.

They close the year with Troy, Missouri, Vandy and Kentucky. They have to win those games. Troy is a Sun Belt team. Missouri is only gonna win 4-5 games and lost to Vanderbilt. Then at UT they are expected to beat Vandy and Kentucky every year. Those two teams have only 1 win apiece against UT in the last 20 years. And one of those was last year.... He loses to either of those teams this year he is as good as gone.

[TheBigCheese21]

He is on the hot seat and this year they have about as easy a schedule as an SEC team could possibly have these days.

NC State - Neutral Site
Georgia State - Home
Florida - Home
Akron - Home
Georgia - Away
Miss State - Away coming off an open week
Alabama - Home
South Carolina - Away
Troy - Home
Missouri - Home
Vanderbilt - Away (Home really)
Kentucky - Home

They pretty much start off with 5 wins although Kentucky and Vanderbilt have been catching them as of late and could pull the upset.

Then they got Missouri, Miss State and NC State all as winnable games.

But looking at this schedule and thinking that for the first time Derek Dooley should have most of his own guys out on the field how many wins does he need to keep his job? I'm thinking he needs to go 7-5 and have a respectable showing in the bowl game. If they go 6-6 and have a loss to Vandy or Kentucky he is gone.

So how did that work out for ya? (Bold)

Go Gators!!!!!

[steelcityroller]

So how did that work out for ya? (Bold)

Go Gators!!!!!

What? I don't get it.... They beat Georgia State and Akron and still have Troy, Vanderbilt and Kentucky of which I said Vandy and UK could pull the upset.

[NYYankees12]

What? I don't get it.... They beat Georgia State and Akron and still have Troy, Vanderbilt and Kentucky of which I said Vandy and UK could pull the upset.

Yea Im lost as well.

[steelcityroller]

The word on local radio is that he needs to finish 7-5 this year to keep his job for one more season. Which is reasonable considering that they have Troy, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt left on the schedule.

But the thing is that even if he survives this year then next season they still play Alabama, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina in the SEC plus they have Oregon as a non-conference opponent. I can't see them doing any better than 7-5 next year either....

[NYYankees12]

I honestly believe he'll be back for many reasons but there's on main reason...

The athletic program was said to be in the red nearly $4 Million Dollars. Not having the funds you would have to..........

1)Pay Dooley and his coaches a quite large buyout...

2)Wouldnt be able to afford a "big name" football coach.

Also if you look at the list of "who's out there" there's really not a name that jumps out as anyone that's going to be that much better. You've got your unrealistic fans that think Gruden or Bill Cower will come....They're not. Then you've got the fans saying "Back the truck up to Bobby Petrinos house"....but Im pretty sure he's a lock for going to Auburn or possibly even back to Arkansas...Both jobs are much more "sexier" then Tennessee at the moment.

UT's offense really isnt that bad this year. The team is competing with some very good teams in the nation. However, the defense is an abortion. The first thing I do once the season is over is Fire Sal Sunseri. I then go out and do what I need to do to get Randy Shannon from Texas Tech to be my defensive Coord. The most obvious scheme change is going back to the 4-3 from the 4-3. With Shannon at DC, you've also got an experienced head coach/head coach in waiting/future DC if and when the time comes you have to fire Dooley. After next year, who knows what coaches will be available. Maybe someone new pops up. I wouldnt be surprised to see the 49ers Offense Coord start getting looks from colleges for head coaching positions. Either way at that point the buy out for Dooley and his coaches will be MUCH less and that's more money you can chase a big name coach with.

[steelcityroller]

I honestly believe he'll be back for many reasons but there's on main reason...

The athletic program was said to be in the red nearly $4 Million Dollars. Not having the funds you would have to..........

1)Pay Dooley and his coaches a quite large buyout...

2)Wouldnt be able to afford a "big name" football coach.

Also if you look at the list of "who's out there" there's really not a name that jumps out as anyone that's going to be that much better. You've got your unrealistic fans that think Gruden or Bill Cower will come....They're not. Then you've got the fans saying "Back the truck up to Bobby Petrinos house"....but Im pretty sure he's a lock for going to Auburn or possibly even back to Arkansas...Both jobs are much more "sexier" then Tennessee at the moment.

UT's offense really isnt that bad this year. The team is competing with some very good teams in the nation. However, the defense is an abortion. The first thing I do once the season is over is Fire Sal Sunseri. I then go out and do what I need to do to get Randy Shannon from Texas Tech to be my defensive Coord. The most obvious scheme change is going back to the 4-3 from the 4-3. With Shannon at DC, you've also got an experienced head coach/head coach in waiting/future DC if and when the time comes you have to fire Dooley. After next year, who knows what coaches will be available. Maybe someone new pops up. I wouldnt be surprised to see the 49ers Offense Coord start getting looks from colleges for head coaching positions. Either way at that point the buy out for Dooley and his coaches will be MUCH less and that's more money you can chase a big name coach with.

They were $4 million in the red for the 2011 season. The reason they were $4 million in the red was because they had to give nearly $6 million in buyouts to AD Mike Hamilton, Former football coach Phil Fulmer, former basketball coach Bruce Pearl and former baseball coach Todd Raleigh. And they didn't go to a bowl game which cost them a couple million as well.

The buyout for Derek Dooley is $5 million spread out over 4 years. So $1.25 million a year.

The only person on his coaching staff that has a guaranteed buyout is OC Jim Chaney and that is only $645,000 for 1 year.

The rest of the other coaches only get buyouts as long as they don't have another job.

They also have money set aside in reserve. That was around $2 million at the beginning of the season and is said to be around $4 million now after some fundraisers.

Also they cut their spending this year by $5 million.

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2012/se...-million-from/

You take out those buyouts that were paid off last year, take off $5 million from the budget and consider that Tennessee will probably go to a bowl game this year..... They will probably post a $8-10 million gain this year. And then they still have that $2-4 million in reserve.

That is more than enough to buyout Dooley & staff and go out and hire another coach. Especially when all that money isn't due up front on either account.

It is a move that almost has to be made because under Dooley's watch the football program has seen a yearly decrease in ticket and merchandise sales. He is costing them money whether he stays or goes at this point. And it will still cost $4 million to buy him out after next season anyways....

The current Tennessee AD Dave Hart said on the radio a couple weeks ago that if they do decide to go another direction then money will never be an issue. That they can always hold events to raise money or even borrow money should it come to that point.

[steelcityroller]

2)Wouldnt be able to afford a "big name" football coach.

Also if you look at the list of "who's out there" there's really not a name that jumps out as anyone that's going to be that much better. You've got your unrealistic fans that think Gruden or Bill Cower will come....They're not. Then you've got the fans saying "Back the truck up to Bobby Petrinos house"....but Im pretty sure he's a lock for going to Auburn or possibly even back to Arkansas...Both jobs are much more "sexier" then Tennessee at the moment.

Nearly anybody would be better than Derek Dooley. Run through a list of his accomplishments

- Has never beat a ranked team
- Has never won a game when tied or trailing at halftime
- Has a 32-39 career record
- Has a 4-17 SEC record
- In 6 years as a head coach has posted 1 winning season
- Tennessee football revenue has dropped during his tenure

And it is gonna be hard to find somebody that can do better?

Butch Jones

- 47-26 record at Central Michigan and Cincinnati
- 2 MAC conference titles
- 1 Big East conference title
- In 6 years as a head coach has posted 5 winning seasons
- Is currently making $500,000 a year less than Derek Dooley

Charlie Strong

- 23-13 record at Louisville
- 2 Big East conference titles
- Currently has Louisville 9-0

Gus Malzahn

- 5-3 record currently at Arkansas State
- Head coach at Shiloh Christian High School from 1996-2000. They won 2 state championships and set national records for passing yards and touchdowns in a season.
- Head coach at Springdale High School from 2001-2005. They won 2 state championships, set state offensive records and were ranked in the top 10 in the country.
- Offensive Coordinator at Arkansas in 2006 as they won the SEC West and finished the season 10-4.
- Offensive Coach of the Year in 2006.
- Offensive Coordinator at Tusla in 2007. They had the #1 offense in the country and became the first team in NCAA history to have a 5,000-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher and 1,000-yard receiver.
- He is currently making $1,150,000 a year less at Arkansas State than Derek Dooley is making at Tennessee.

June Jones

- 104-73 record as a head coach
- In 14 years has had 11 winning seasons
- 2 conference championships
- His teams set all kinds of records at Hawaii

David Cutcliffe

- Was a coach at Tennessee from 1982-1998
- He has a 65-66 record as head coach which is misleading as he has been the head coach at Duke which is arguably the worst team in the ACC.
- He had a 44-29 record as the head coach at Ole Miss.
- Won the SEC West at Ole Miss
- Coach of the Year in 2003
- Is making $500,000 a year less than Derek Dooley

[steelcityroller]

He is as good as gone. They lost 51-48 to a Missouri team that had been averaging 17 points in their last 8 games. The best they can do is 6-6 and 5-7 looks more likely with Vanderbilt looking to be a better football team.

[steelcityroller]

According to local radio Derek Dooley is meeting with school officials tomorrow and is expected to be informed of his release at the end of the season.

I know fans here will be happy but UT fans need to be scared as hell. This program is on the brink of falling off the map. They think this year is bad well the next two years are almost certain to be worse barring some MAJOR changes to the program.

The Schedule

In the SEC East they play Georgia, Florida and South Carolina every year. Florida and Georgia are gonna be hard games every year those are major programs. South Carolina is gonna be a major program and hard to beat as long as Steve Spurrier in on the sidelines.

Now this is a big disadvantage for Tennessee in that Alabama is their SEC-West rival meaning they play them every year. So you have 4 pretty tough conference games every year.

But what about non-conference? This year their toughest non-conference game was against NC State who is gonna likely finish up 6-6 or 7-5 in the ACC. But next year they play Oregon and that is gonna be a blowout loss. Then in 2014 and 2015 they play Oklahoma.... So if you look at the schedule and say that they lose to Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Florida every year in conference and likely lose to Oregon/Oklahoma out of conference this team is at best looking at 7-5 for the next 3 years and will be hard pressed to do better than 6-6 in 2014/2015.

2013 - Oregon, @ Florida, Georgia, @ Alabama, South Carolina and Auburn
2014 - @Oklahoma, Florida, @Georgia, Alabama and @South Carolina and LSU/Texas A&M
2015 - Oklahoma, @Florida, Georgia, @Alabama and South Carolina and LSU/Texas A&M

Players

As bad as this team has been this was supposed to be their big year. They are gonna lose most of their best players.

Tyler Bray - He could come back for his Senior year but who knows with him losing his top 4 receivers from this year.

Justin Hunter & Cordarrelle Patterson - Both are leaving. According to several reports online Patterson won't even be academically eligible to play a possible bowl this year or in 2013.

Linebackers Herman Lathers and Willie Bohannon - Both are seniors

Cornerback Prentiss Waggner - Their best defensive back and is a senior

Left Guard Dallas Thomas - Their best offensive lineman and is a senior

Tight End Mychal Rivera - Starting Tight End and is a senior

Wide Receiver Zach Rogers - Solid receiver is a senior

So you see they are losing their top 4 receiving options and several of their best players at other positions.

Coaches

Who do they get to come to Tennessee? Any high level coach is look at the current roster situation I mentioned above in addition to the schedule for the next several years and realize its gonna be pretty hard to do any better than 7-5 the next 3 years.

And it isn't like Tennessee is the only school with an opening as you can expect Auburn, Arkansas, Kentucky and Boston College to have openings. Then you could possibly see Maryland, Iowa, Cal and a few other schools looking as well. When those schools get coaches it will create a domino effect if you see coaches like Charlie Strong and Butch Jones leave then Louisville and Cincinnati will have openings as well.

[steelcityroller]

Volquest.com is reporting that Derek Dooley has been informed of his release and it will be made official on Monday.

[TennMike]

I honestly thought they would keep him one more year just because next year's schedule is next to impossible.

But that was before Troy and Mizzou. Those two games included some of the worst coaching i've ever seen.

[steelcityroller]

I honestly thought they would keep him one more year just because next year's schedule is next to impossible.

But that was before Troy and Mizzou. Those two games included some of the worst coaching i've ever seen.

Yeah they had finished 7-5 he would have kept his job for another season. But here are the coaches that they were talking about today as being on the wish list in Knoxville

There are so many rumors right now

I heard that Phil Fulmer was at Duke University talking to David Cutcliffe on behalf of Tennessee about the job.

Supposedly Jon Gruden was in Knoxville on Tuesday.

But the word from sources inside the university are saying that whoever they hire will be somebody with head coaching experience in the south and in one of the major conferences.

A stat that somebody point out today. In the history of the SEC every coach that has won an SEC Championship had reached a 9-win season by his 3rd year.