AJ Burnett traded to Pirates

[#27in2007]

they don't NEED veteran starting pitcher like Edwin Jackson.

It's a mistake to sign a guy like that in the first place. A.J. isn't going to help them win, or really even get closer.

Makes no sense to basically waste the money when there are a ton of better resources to put that money toward to help their long term future window.



That's what people said when they got Matt Morris and passed on drafting Matt Wieters because of money that they sent to Matt Morris.

I see your point. However the new rules limit what you can spend in the draft so it is easier to budget as they dont have to prepare for spending "infinity"

[Twitchy]

But while you brought it up, do you know why his changeup usage went up? It's because he is adapting as he knows his stuff is diminishing which is the irrefutable (and most important) fact here.

That's one (poor) interpretation of it. He's thrown it at that level in 2005 when he was having a successful season. And again, the swinging strike rates are at 10%, his career averages, meaning he's still fooling hitters as much as he has in the past. If that wasn't the case, then his swinging strike % would be lower, and we'd know he was struggling.

Burnett is mainly a two pitch pitcher but when those pitches start to deteriorate (and they have), you try anything you can. Burnett is likely to rely more on his changeup which isn't good for anyone.

You can't call a pitch that has 10% usage "relying" on. It's a "show me" pitch. And his curve was much better this year than last year.

Burnett used to have a fastball in the mid-90's but that is no longer the case and has declined in each of the past two seasons. That trend is likely to continue. His command of his curveball is getting worse as well so while Burnett might still be fooling hitters, he is still walking them at a high rate as well.

The curveball is still an effective pitch. And he's not walking any more or less hitters than he ever has. He had an 8.18 K/9 and 3.92 BB/9 last year vs career rates of 8.22 and 3.79. That's pretty much dead on for what he's been over his career. Let's not try and pretend this isn't the case. The only difference is that the HR:FB was 17% compared to 11% which is completely out of whack. Even the past two years he had an 11% HR:FB rate. Regardless of what you think of AJ, that's just not realistic.

It's like arguing a guy sucks because he has a 400 BABIP.

Burnett makes his own bad luck but somehow that gets lost for people defending him.

There are pitchers with lesser stuff than AJ currently has that don't have 17% HR:FB rates. Don't be naive.

Something else that is irrefutable! Funny you brought up watching him for five innings since he has only 24 QS in 65 GS over the past two seasons.

Why are you surprised that a guy with a poor ERA has a low amount of quality starts? He's still averaged 6 innings a game the past 3 seasons so it's because of the runs allowed, not his inability to eat innings. Which again, is a valuable and underrated skill.

And yes, I can't believe I just said that for AJ given his injury history, but amusingly it's true.

Nothing about Burnett is unhittable anymore. He can have a 8 K/9 all he wants. It won't matter if he continues to give up walks and give up big hits.

I don't think anybody ever claimed Burnett was unhittable. Just that he had the ability to be an average pitcher. If he's even a 2 WAR pitcher, which isn't unrealistic, he'll be a bargain for the Pirates. Even if he's 1.5 WAR, it's still good value for the Pirates. So if he pitches like he does last year, it's still a good trade.

That's how low the bar is for this trade to be good for the Pirates. Anything more than that and the Pirates come away with a steal.

I just don't see a reason to defend such a mediocre pitcher who continues to decline.

Probably because you don't appreciate or realize that Burnett is closer to being league average than mediocre. That's the state of pitching these days.

Pirates should have found mediocrity for a lot less than $13 million and two minor leaguers, one of which has a chance to be a MLB reliever.

You really think a 25 year old who just got through AA has the chance to be a good MLB reliever? From what I've read he was suspended for some reason (bad behaviour but they didn't specify), and that he was available in the Rule V draft and nobody selected him. So I don't know what you're expecting from him, when 29 other teams passed on the chance to acquire him when all it would have cost was $50,000 bucks.

Going to the Pirates is not going to give Burnett control, put velocity on his fastball, cut down on walks

Did anybody say that would happen other than you?

or suppress the big hits.

It won't suppress big hits, but it's much harder to score runs in PNC Park than it is in Yankee Stadium. That, is an indisputable fact. What would be a HR in Yankee Stadium is a long fly ball here. He may have pitched better at home (which isn't shocking, as most players do), but it doesn't change the fact that it's still harder to hit a HR at PNC Park, which covers his biggest weakness.

To a degree, of course. Nobody is suggesting he'll have a single digit HR:FB, but you can't argue with the fact that it's harder to hit one in PNC than Yankee Stadium. That's a no brainer.

If you do think that is going to happen for some reason at 35 years old, then we will just have to agree to disagree.

Clearly you have no idea what I am arguing if you think that's what I'm saying. AJ just needs to pitch like he did in 2011 to make this a solid trade for the Pirates. That's how low the bar is.

Don't have Insider so have no clue what Keith Law says but I really don't care either

That's ok, I don't blame you. I wouldn't care either if someone who had more baseball knowledge than I did disagreed with my opinion and pretty much disproved my arguments.

[Havoc Wreaker]

Sleeper pick in fantasy! I'm drafting him in the 1st round

[infernoscurse]

i cant wait to face the isabela havoks

[Jays Claw]

I think A.J does well in Pitt. Moving out of New York and the NY media should ease the pressure of pitching going into '12 IMO. Also, pitching in PNC park against NLC lineups should help improve his stats and overall game.

[Havoc Wreaker]

i cant wait to face the isabela havoks

[Jeffy25]

of course AJ will be better, Jeffy knows it too. Neal Huntington is a GM of a major league team Jeffy is a wannabe, the mere fact that he thinks morris' acquisition had any part in the weiters decision proves it. the pirates under bob nutting and littlefield always went with signability over talent. its not only weiters, they passed on prince fielder for bryan bullington too., or did morris screw that pick too?

Seriously, the team spent 15 million in a two month span on the draft and Morris.

We aren't talking about moves that were months or years a part. This money was spent at the same time, which means they clearly could have allocated that money in a different direction.

[mikepelfrey]

Seriously, the team spent 15 million in a two month span on the draft and Morris.

We aren't talking about moves that were months or years a part. This money was spent at the same time, which means they clearly could have allocated that money in a different direction.

Could have,as it was in the realm of possible outcomes? sure, but in reality the two were entirely unrelated because Bob Nutting was notorious for drafting for signabillity and not for talent, When they drafted Bullington over Fielder, there was total shock among the drafting community because bullington was seen as at best as a middle of the rotation starter, Greinke, Hamels and Cain were all considered better talents, by the time Weiters came along, everyone knew that the pirates were going to pass on him because by that point the book was out on how the pirates operated, Bud Selig basically forced Nutting to hire Frank Coonelly because of how much of a joke their drafting had became, The funny thing was that Nutting hired Coonelly thinking that since Coonelly had been Bud's Right hand man, and was responsible for the Slotting system, that things wouldnt change much, but no sooner was Coonelly named to the job he went over slot on his top 10 picks.

So Morris had nothing to do with Weiters, the Pirates had set their drafting pattern long before they acquired Morris

[ne3xchamps]

Good for him, now he gets to spend the rest of his declining career on one of the worst teams in baseball.

[nr19]

Could have,as it was in the realm of possible outcomes? sure, but in reality the two were entirely unrelated because Bob Nutting was notorious for drafting for signabillity and not for talent, When they drafted Bullington over Fielder, there was total shock among the drafting community because bullington was seen as at best as a middle of the rotation starter, Greinke, Hamels and Cain were all considered better talents, by the time Weiters came along, everyone knew that the pirates were going to pass on him because by that point the book was out on how the pirates operated, Bud Selig basically forced Nutting to hire Frank Coonelly because of how much of a joke their drafting had became, The funny thing was that Nutting hired Coonelly thinking that since Coonelly had been Bud's Right hand man, and was responsible for the Slotting system, that things wouldnt change much, but no sooner was Coonelly named to the job he went over slot on his top 10 picks.

So Morris had nothing to do with Weiters, the Pirates had set their drafting pattern long before they acquired Morris

This is so sad, imagine if they actually drafted the best prospects and spent some money in an effort to win. Like Jeffy says it makes no sense to cheap out on the draft and then pay 13 million to a very weak pitcher who has declined so badly over the last few years.

It's a pointless move on the Pirates part. Why throw money away that could be spent in MUCH better ways.

[masher44]

Cashman is the best GM in the history of all sports, all time.

[MG3]

Why is everyone comparing two different gms? Littlefield screwed up. He did the Morris/Wieters thing, not Huntington. Everyone on PSD hate on the Pirates for mistakes that they made five-ten years ago. Look recently and tell me one big mistake that they made? They had nothing to work with once Littlefield left and did everyone forget this team was tied for first at the all star break? Just curious?

[mikepelfrey]

Why is everyone comparing two different gms? Littlefield screwed up. He did the Morris/Wieters thing, not Huntington. Everyone on PSD hate on the Pirates for mistakes that they made five-ten years ago. Look recently and tell me one big mistake that they made? They had nothing to work with once Littlefield left and did everyone forget this team was tied for first at the all star break? Just curious?

actually i agree with you, Huntington is actually making the right move in theory, much like the Mets, who brought in Pedro Martinez to change the culture of the clubhouse and to stabilize the rotation, Burnett is being brought in to provide innings and a veteran presence. not much has been said here about Burnetts very positive influence on Ivan Nova, but Yankee pitching coach Larry Rothschild, has repeatedly mentioned that as one of the keys to Nova's rapid ascent. Much of the Pirates projected future rests on the talented arms of Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole, and Burnett buys them time to devellop without being rushed.

Ive said repeatedly that this is a great move for the Pirates. The move isnt one that is designed to win now and thats where So many people like Jeffy and RTL miss the boat, its a move to help a young team grow, because you have to learn how to reach .500 first before you can win consistently, and it also acts as a barrier against rushing Cole and Taillon. So that even though the Pirates may not win now, it actually does help them win in 2015 and beyond. That is Why Huntington is a good GM, he's not so worried about his job that he sells out tomorrow to win a few meaningless games today

[Jeffy25]

Why is everyone comparing two different gms? Littlefield screwed up. He did the Morris/Wieters thing, not Huntington. Everyone on PSD hate on the Pirates for mistakes that they made five-ten years ago. Look recently and tell me one big mistake that they made? They had nothing to work with once Littlefield left and did everyone forget this team was tied for first at the all star break? Just curious?

The Morris deal was only brought up because that is what this deal is similar to for the team.

I hate this move for a team that is very unlikely to compete.

Ive said repeatedly that this is a great move for the Pirates. The move isnt one that is designed to win now and thats where So many people like Jeffy and RTL miss the boat, its a move to help a young team grow, because you have to learn how to reach .500 first before you can win consistently, and it also acts as a barrier against rushing Cole and Taillon. So that even though the Pirates may not win now, it actually does help them win in 2015 and beyond. That is Why Huntington is a good GM, he's not so worried about his job that he sells out tomorrow to win a few meaningless games today

Absolutely not, the Rays didn't reach .500 before winning consistently. You build a core prospect team and graduate them together and win as much as possible in the 6 year ownership window trying to maximize the length as much as possible, which is when you make moves like this.

This was was nothing but a lateral move for a team that isn't ready to win yet.

How does this move help the Pirates win in 2015? They gave up the two players they would have owned in 2015, and Burnett's deal will be over for two years and he will be 38. Burnett isn't going to help create a winning culture on a team that will likely only have about 33% of the same players in 2015 as they do today.

[Augbro]

thank the lord this a-hole is finally off the yankees


as for cashman for pulling this off....