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View Poll Results: Who's your #1 spec?

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  • Profar

    40 44.44%
  • Taveras

    28 31.11%
  • Other (Post)

    22 24.44%
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Results 421 to 435 of 1022
  1. #421
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    Quote Originally Posted by VRP723 View Post
    If you see him hitting .330 in his prime that's and 80 bat
    Truth.


    I stand more so by the slash lines that I posted than the scouting scale.

    His hit tool is his highest tool, but he has enough power that he won't be an empty singles hitter with a high average.

    There are two big questions for the value of Taveras (3 if you want to consider health, but that's every prospect) if you ask me.

    1. How much power will he actually develop. This year was a decent sign. If he can be a perennial 30 homer guy, you have a complete stud. If he is a 10-15 perennial home run hitter, than you have someone with a lot less value overall. But if he can compliment that with enough doubles power to the point where he can still produce a +.500 slugging, then he is a perennial all-star. Anything less than that and I think his overall bat is going to be a lot weaker because his walk rate will never impress enough to carry him to that all-star caliber alone.

    2. How long can he play centerfield and at what rate. He probably won't get to play center much in the big leagues in St. Louis. The front office seems to really like Jon Jay, no reason not to of course. Beltran is gone after this season, and Taveras while being a decent route runner and having a plus arm just doesn't seem to really profile as a centerfielder. He hustles, which you love to see, but he isn't gifted with a lot of natural speed, so he has to make good routes, and continue to hustle to be an average center fielder. His arm is nice in center, and certainly passable (even good) for a right fielder.


    With the expectation being that he adds bulk to complete his bat and give him enough power to be a perennial all-star, I can't see him sticking in Centerfield. He'll get bigger, and likely a little less speed with it (he isn't built like a Matt Kemp for instance where he can hit 40/40).


    I like Taveras, and obviously as a Cards fan I'm even more enamored. I think he is a .330 potential big leaguer. He has elite contact, all of his bats are covered in ball marks in the sweet spots only. He just doesn't miss very often, and he usually makes very square contact. His size will help establish his power. And if his power comes along, that will increase his walk rate.


    All I want at this point from Taveras, is to see him develop the power. He can forget about playing centerfield in my mind (obviously you keep him there as long as you can in the minors and teach him that position in case you end up needing him there, or he proves he can play there and push someone else off, but Jay has like no value unless he is a centerfielder). If he can develop that .550+ slugging, holy cow.....I'm in love.

    But we are a few years away from something like that happening most likely (no Trout most likely).

    Anyway, sorry from rambling. Just a top rated Cards prospect, easy to chat about him.

  2. #422
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    VRP, while I have you here. Thoughts on Shelby Miller's 2013 numbers. He is expected to replace Lohse in the rotation this season (if he doesn't, then Joe Kelly will get the starts).

    I think he should top 25 starts this year (unless he gets hurt, or the other 5 are healthy all year which is unlikely - Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia, Lynn, Westbrook and Westbrook shouldn't be in the rotation at all), if he does get the 25 starts, what sort of numbers do you project?

  3. #423
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    As decent a player as Jon Jay is, and he really is a decent enough player, I doubt the Cardinals would let him get in the way of Taveras if they buy that Taveras can live up to the hype.

    There have been plenty of CFers without great speed...Edmonds being one of them...Bernie Williams...Grady Sizemore...Andruw Jones was never really a speed guy....Mike Cameron wasn't a blazing speed kind of guy...

    I don't think power is his long term issue at all. We're talking a 19/20 year old that popped off 23 HRs in AA. I'm actually growing to like my Edmonds comp more and more...batting stance brings me right to him....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qI-nhCZZbdQ
    Last edited by SenorGato; 12-31-2012 at 02:01 PM.

  4. #424
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    As decent a player as Jon Jay is, and he really is a decent enough player, I doubt the Cardinals would let him get in the way of Taveras if they buy that Taveras can live up to the hype.

    There have been plenty of CFers without great speed...Edmonds being one of them...Bernie Williams...Grady Sizemore...Andruw Jones was never really a speed guy....Mike Cameron wasn't a blazing speed kind of guy...

    I don't think power is his long term issue at all. We're talking a 19/20 year old that popped off 23 HRs in AA. I'm actually growing to like my Edmonds comp more and more...batting stance brings me right to him....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qI-nhCZZbdQ
    Then Jay would have to be traded, and then we would have to find a comparable right fielder (although, you could just as easily move Craig to right and call Matt Adams up to play first base with Matt Carpenter being the super sub at each corner position).

    That's certainly a possibility (hadn't thought of it personally), but at some point Taveras will be moved to right. But maybe not for another 10 years

    I doubt we would keep Jay if that was the case though. His value is that of a centerfielder. His bat is too weak to be a corner outfielder. I could see some teams liking him. He is a solid starter at the big league level. Not really an all-star, and he doesn't have any holes (other than no real power). He is just a good, consistent, everyday player. I always thought he would be a 4th outfielder, and he surpassed my expectations.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 12-31-2012 at 02:21 PM.

  5. #425
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    I know they technically arent specs anymore, but I wanted others thoughts on guys like Smoak, Ackley and Montero.

    All three were top specs, Montero being top 5 or so just a year ago, but all three have struggled so far. Montero and Ackley both only have one full year so I am not concerned YET, but if they dont improve this year or next I will be.

    I guess my question is if all 3 bust, or at least dont live up to their name, do you think there is some kind of development problem? I would say scouting, but all three were pretty much thought highly above across the board. None were really thought of as a reach when we acquired them.

    Or were there any reports or anything you guys saw in their minor league stats that suggest that they werent as good as people thought? Or just your thoughts on them as players or whatever you think.

    I apologize if this is a little OT for this thread, but I just wanted some opinions from people other than biased Mariner fans since we all want to hope for and expect the best.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  6. #426
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    Ackley is the one I like the most, and I think Smoak is a very safe bet to improve at the plate.

    Smoak probably won't become the Mark Tex everyone said he would become though. Montero I have no idea on yet.

    I like Ackley quite a bit still and last year wasn't much of a concern for me.

    The sad part though is that each were the worst offensive player at each of their positions last year. So improving on that shouldn't be too difficult lol. They each need to get 600 PA in 2013 though.

  7. #427
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    I dont see Smoak getting anywhere close to 600 PA. He may not even be up for part of the year the way this FO is handling things.

    This is probably his last chance tho. With Kendrys around, it could be a make or break
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  8. #428
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    VRP, while I have you here. Thoughts on Shelby Miller's 2013 numbers. He is expected to replace Lohse in the rotation this season (if he doesn't, then Joe Kelly will get the starts).

    I think he should top 25 starts this year (unless he gets hurt, or the other 5 are healthy all year which is unlikely - Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia, Lynn, Westbrook and Westbrook shouldn't be in the rotation at all), if he does get the 25 starts, what sort of numbers do you project?
    If I remember correctly the only reason his numbers were down in the minors was that his velocity was down for the first month or two of the season, right? I guess I'd expect big things as long as that doesn't happen again, that'd be my only concern. Maybe as a rookie a 8.5-9 K/9, 3-3.5 BB/9, 3.5-3.75 ERA seems about right. Similar to what Lance Lynn did last year seems like a solid comp.

    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    I know they technically arent specs anymore, but I wanted others thoughts on guys like Smoak, Ackley and Montero.

    All three were top specs, Montero being top 5 or so just a year ago, but all three have struggled so far. Montero and Ackley both only have one full year so I am not concerned YET, but if they dont improve this year or next I will be.

    I guess my question is if all 3 bust, or at least dont live up to their name, do you think there is some kind of development problem? I would say scouting, but all three were pretty much thought highly above across the board. None were really thought of as a reach when we acquired them.

    Or were there any reports or anything you guys saw in their minor league stats that suggest that they werent as good as people thought? Or just your thoughts on them as players or whatever you think.

    I apologize if this is a little OT for this thread, but I just wanted some opinions from people other than biased Mariner fans since we all want to hope for and expect the best.
    I like Montero the best. I remember Kevin Goldstein would also say on his podcasts and on Twitter that Ackley was going to be a good player for a long time but he never understood where the star projections came from.

    Montero was 22 all year, which is still crazy young, and a lot of people missed that he wasn't GREAT in AAA in 2011. He just needs time IMO.

    Smoak who the hell knows lol.

    Also whatever they do with the fences will probably impact the three of them. Now just give us Taijuan for Ethier

    Coming soon to a TKRO stadium near you

  9. #429
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    Lol yeah right. Would be awful for us.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  10. #430
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    Quote Originally Posted by VRP723 View Post
    If I remember correctly the only reason his numbers were down in the minors was that his velocity was down for the first month or two of the season, right? I guess I'd expect big things as long as that doesn't happen again, that'd be my only concern. Maybe as a rookie a 8.5-9 K/9, 3-3.5 BB/9, 3.5-3.75 ERA seems about right. Similar to what Lance Lynn did last year seems like a solid comp.
    His velocity was down because he was throwing only two seamers for some reason, fwiw. No idea why, or who told him to do that. But his four seamer was re-included in Junish.

  11. #431
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    Miller probably will go through a rough adjustment faze, but I think he'll be an anchor like Wainwright has previously been. He's gonna have to keep his BB/9 down, but his stuff is nasty. I think the Cardinals mess with him too much instead of letting him stick to his game. Like what Jeffy mentioned about his removal of his 4 seamer for a while (which still makes no sense to me).

  12. #432
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    The Cardinals have been a big 2 seam/curve organization with Carpenter and Wainright being two of the best in the league. I could see why they tried it out with Miller, and it seems they accepted that his 4 seam is his best pitch.

    One of my favorite things last year in the minors was the overreaction to Miller's PCL struggles.

  13. #433
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    The Cardinals have been a big 2 seam/curve organization with Carpenter and Wainright being two of the best in the league. I could see why they tried it out with Miller, and it seems they accepted that his 4 seam is his best pitch.

    One of my favorite things last year in the minors was the overreaction to Miller's PCL struggles.
    Yeah in 2.5 months he dropped out of a ton of top 10s... Teheran was the real disaster.

  14. #434
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    David Denson (draft prospect) hits 515ft HR at MIA park


  15. #435
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    well damn

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