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  1. #1
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    Keith Law top 100 Prospects and top 10 Mets Prospects

    ESPN.COM
    27. Zack Wheeler
    Age: 21 (DOB: May 30, 1990)
    Bats: Right Throws: Right
    Position: Pitcher Organization: New York Mets
    Top '11 Level: A (St. Lucie)
    2011 ranking: 36

    Wheeler was stolen from the Giants for two months of Carlos Beltran's services in a deadline deal that should benefit the Mets for much of this decade.

    He will touch 97 mph and sit at least 91-94 with an above-average curveball that has shown it can miss bats. He has a fringy changeup that's a little too firm, giving up a .283/.375/.452 line to left-handed hitters as a result (although that improved after the trade in a small sample). His control is still below-average, and he'll have to show durability to match his frame, as he retired more than 18 batters just twice all year.
    38. Matt Harvey
    Age: 22 (DOB: Mar. 27, 1989)
    Bats: Right***Throws: Right
    Position: Pitcher Organization: New York Mets
    Top '11 Level: AA (Binghamton)
    2011 ranking: 83

    Harvey's strong season in Double-A showed that he's not that far away from contributing in the big leagues, but also masked some of the ongoing questions about his repertoire and command that probably push him toward a good No. 3 or average No. 2 ceiling.

    He will sit 91-97 mph as a starter with good downhill plane, and his changeup is a weapon for him against both left- and right-handed hitters. His curve and slider tend to run together, and he'd probably be better off just picking one or the other and using it exclusively to avoid throwing in-between pitches that will get hammered at higher levels.

    The UNC product didn't dominate Double-A like you'd expect him to based on his velocity, but a sharper breaking ball could produce those results and get him to the big leagues by the middle of this year.
    Guys who just missed the top 100


    Jeurys Familia, RHP: If I thought there was any chance he could start, he would have made the list, but he's headed for the bullpen with a plus fastball and not enough command or secondary stuff to remain in the rotation. The real gap in expected values between him and some of the likely relievers on my top 100, such as Dellin Betances or Addison Reed, isn't as big as the ranking gap might make it seem, given how volatile reliever performances can be.

    Top 10 Mets Prospects

    1. Zack Wheeler, RHP (27)
    2. Matt Harvey, RHP (38)
    3. Jeurys Familia, RHP
    4. Brandon Nimmo, OF
    5. Reese Havens, 2B
    6. Cesar Puello, OF
    7. Domingo Tapia, RHP
    8. Wilmer Flores, OF
    9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF
    10. Juan Lagares, OF
    Organizational Rankings

    22. New York Mets

    It's actually getting better here, but rebuilding a system takes years, and the Mets have really just begun to inject higher-upside talent into the system.

  2. #2
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    Of course guys like Sonny Gray and Josh Bell are in the top 100, but none of our players from this draft are on there. I think even Jed Bradley was in the top 100. It doesn't mean much, but i still find it frustrating. Actually it does mean something because it tells us that some of our prospects don't have as much value right now as others we could have had.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gideon View Post
    Of course guys like Sonny Gray and Josh Bell are in the top 100, but none of our players from this draft are on there. I think even Jed Bradley was in the top 100. It doesn't mean much, but i still find it frustrating. Actually it does mean something because it tells us that some of our prospects don't have as much value right now as others we could have had.
    I don't really care about prospect rankings the year after guys were drafted. Remember, Matt Harvey hardly broke a single top 100 list right after he was drafted, and now he's pretty much universally considered a top 30-50 prospect. Give Nimmo a chance to see what he can do.

  4. #4
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    Harvey was ranked 83 by Law last year and now is 38, so I guess Law just flipped the numbers.

  5. #5
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    I am really disappointed at the rankings by Law and Baseball America.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    I am really disappointed at the rankings by Law and Baseball America.
    Me too.

  7. #7
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    Just missed the Top 100:
    Will Middlebrooks, 3B: He emerged as one of the top Red Sox prospects last season with a breakout year at age 22 with Double-A Portland.
    Minors - 4 yrs. 1606 PA's .272/.330/.440/.770
    Last Year @ AA 397 PA's .302/.345/.520/.865 - 44 XBH

    Not even getting any consideration, but strikingly similar statistically to:
    Juan Lagares, OF who also had a breakout season at both A+ St. Lucie (not known as a hitters league) and AA Binghamton at age 22.
    Minors - 6 yrs. 1966 PA's .279/.317/.403/.720
    Last Yr @ A+/AA 505 PA's .349/.383/.500/.883 - 44 XBH

    Major difference is 18 of Middleton's 44 XBH last year were HRs, with 1 triple, while Lagares' 44 XBH included 9 HRs and 9 triples.

    I guess Crash Davis was right. It's not only chicks that dig the long ball, baseball writers do too.
    Former B'klyn Dodger fan. Mets Maniac since 1962.

  8. #8
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    And the fact that Middlebrooks displays that power playing 3B, a position that has been down offensively whereas corner OF prospects have to hit and hit for power to get love from baseball writers.

    2B's and 3B's are not equal to HR and Lagares does not walk at all, if he did, people would be giving him some serious love.

  9. #9
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    Sorry, but Middlebrooks is a 6' 4" 200lb 3B who plays good defense and projects to 25+ HR power. His ceiling is more comparable to Havens or Nieuwenhuis (and even a tic better) than to Lagares. The downside, and reason he's not a top 100 guy, is his walk rate was pretty similar to Lagares this season, and he stuck out a little more than Kirk in 2010 at that level. Like Kirk though, there's enough pop there with the strikeouts that it isn't a huge concern.

    As for Lagares, Law was aggressive enough ranking him in the Mets top 10. I like that ranking. But he's not a top 100 candidate. I do like him in that spot over Valdespin though, who most others seem to be putting there instead. I think you could argue for any of Fulmer, Mazzoni, Evans, or Gorski there as well.

  10. #10
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    Law on Tapia

    Sleeper prospects

    New York Mets
    Right-hander Domingo Tapia is 6-foot-5 and hits triple digits as a starter with some sink on the pitch. He pairs it with a solid to above-average changeup that produced a reverse split in his 50 innings in Kingsport last year. He'll need a more consistent breaking ball to project as a top-end starter, but the velocity and changeup are a good start.
    This is why I have Tapia as my #1 break out prospect for next year.

  11. #11
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    Six foot five that can hit 100 mph with an above average changeup. Even if he doesn't pan out as a starter, I like those skills for a future closer.

  12. #12
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    The thing that people get hung up with Tapia is that how does a guy with that kind of fastball only strikes out 5 batter per 9 innings?

    I mention this last year and that is that he is a GB pitcher who has a plus plus sinker who he can spot it well due to his good command of it. He may simply not be getting the K's because the over aggressive hitters in the low minors are just grounding that ball early on counts. He has a 2.16 GO/AO rate in the minors. Unlike a guy like Morris who is all over the place hitters were able to make contact on Tapia, but not do much with it, but just hit it into the ground.


    I have compared Tapia to Familia a few times before and once again if you look at Familia's k rates in short season ball you will see they were not that high(6.62/9). I think at times people seem to fall in love with K rates and those who ranked Tapia outside the teens are doing just that.

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