The Phillies moved laterally this offseason. They brought in a bunch of ancillary players with well known floors, which limits risk. Usually, moving laterally is a bad thing, but when you're coming off a 102 win season where very little actually went right (Utley was out awhile, Ibanez was terrible, Howard continued to decline), then it's probably OK.
Basically, the Phillies lost Oswalt over the offseason, replaced him with Blanton, and they can also expect regression from Worley, Stutes, Bastardo, and perhaps Mayberry. Polanco should rebound somewhat, as should Utley and the bench is better.
The key is keeping those big three pitchers healthy. If they're out there winning 16-22 games, then the Phillies should have no problem repeating as the division winners.
The Marlins did get better, but not enough to be more than an also ran for the division. They could press for the WC. The Nationals are at a place where if EVERYTHING clicks, they could win the division, even if the Phillies post another excellent season. There's an absurd amount of talent there, but they still have some glaring chinks in the armor.
The Braves played the same shell game the Phillies did. Except they're working off a high 80's win base, not 102 wins.
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