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  1. #1
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    With Reyes a $107M Payroll

    The Mets have only six players signed for next year: Santana [$24M], Bay [$18M], Wright [$15.3M], Dickey [$4.75M], Carrasco [$1.2M] and Byrdak [$1M] = $64M. They have five arbitration eligibles in Pelfrey, Pagan, Parnell and Paulino [I figure Bucholz is gone] that should end up with a total of about $14M. Add in the 12 rookies and second year guys [Niese, Davis, Murphy, Thole, Beato, Duda, Acosta, Evans, Gee, Tejada, Turner, Pridie---if they keep him-- who should average around $500K and a few AAAA players like Nickeas, O'Connor, Alvarez on split contracts] each for another $7M. They may choose to spend $6M on Capuano or someone similar for depth and throw $1M for Harris [I figure Hairston can be replaced by Turner and Evans] which equals $7M. Except for their SS and maybe a new closer that's essentially the entire roster and it adds up to a total of $92M.

    I figure they could re-sign Jose for a deal that looks something like this: $15M in 2012, $15M in 2013, $20M in 2014, $20M in 2015, $5M buyout for 2016 or a club option for another $17M. Lower salary in the first two years while the Bay and Santana contracts run out...an average of $17M overall...which is about the max anyone should pay for his skills and injury history. The only gaping hole is closer and they should be able to get someone like a Joe Nathan or a Matt Capps on the FA market at a discount with an incentive laden contract based on games finished for less than $5M. So, if we keep the ending 2011 roster essentially intact and simply replace KRod's spot the payroll is around $112M...close to the target we have all heard. SA will have to decide whether Pelfrey and Capuano are both worth $6M, as discussed in my other recent post, but $12M is enough to get one very good FA starter [like an Oswalt or better yet E. Jackson] or keep what they have and hope for better results. In any case, if if if Santana resembles his old self, and Wright and Bay rediscover their home run strokes in a revamped Citi Field, if Davis and Murphy pick up where they left off, and Niese, Duda and Gee and Tejada continue to improve---alot of IFS---they could win 90 games. Or, they have more injuries/slumping players and they struggle to win 82. Which is exactly where we were when 2011 began---alot of IFS if we were to contend. I'm hoping SA can do a few really good moves and give us hope for a contending season in 2012.
    Bob
    Met fan since 1969

  2. #2
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    IMO, the big IF revolves around Jose. Everything should fall into to place as SA states he has several game plans.

    We'll hopefully find out by November 15th or sooner what direction SA follows. I'm going to wait until the Jose situation plays out because as you say, there are just too many IFS.

    Shea Stadium Scoreboard May 31, 1964



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    ua you're gone, but never forgotten, R.I.P.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by rdg515 View Post
    The Mets have only six players signed for next year: Santana [$24M], Bay [$18M], Wright [$15.3M], Dickey [$4.75M], Carrasco [$1.2M] and Byrdak [$1M] = $64M. They have five arbitration eligibles in Pelfrey, Pagan, Parnell and Paulino [I figure Bucholz is gone] that should end up with a total of about $14M. Add in the 12 rookies and second year guys [Niese, Davis, Murphy, Thole, Beato, Duda, Acosta, Evans, Gee, Tejada, Turner, Pridie---if they keep him-- who should average around $500K and a few AAAA players like Nickeas, O'Connor, Alvarez on split contracts] each for another $7M. They may choose to spend $6M on Capuano or someone similar for depth and throw $1M for Harris [I figure Hairston can be replaced by Turner and Evans] which equals $7M. Except for their SS and maybe a new closer that's essentially the entire roster and it adds up to a total of $92M.

    I figure they could re-sign Jose for a deal that looks something like this: $15M in 2012, $15M in 2013, $20M in 2014, $20M in 2015, $5M buyout for 2016 or a club option for another $17M. Lower salary in the first two years while the Bay and Santana contracts run out...an average of $17M overall...which is about the max anyone should pay for his skills and injury history. The only gaping hole is closer and they should be able to get someone like a Joe Nathan or a Matt Capps on the FA market at a discount with an incentive laden contract based on games finished for less than $5M. So, if we keep the ending 2011 roster essentially intact and simply replace KRod's spot the payroll is around $112M...close to the target we have all heard. SA will have to decide whether Pelfrey and Capuano are both worth $6M, as discussed in my other recent post, but $12M is enough to get one very good FA starter [like an Oswalt or better yet E. Jackson] or keep what they have and hope for better results. In any case, if if if Santana resembles his old self, and Wright and Bay rediscover their home run strokes in a revamped Citi Field, if Davis and Murphy pick up where they left off, and Niese, Duda and Gee and Tejada continue to improve---alot of IFS---they could win 90 games. Or, they have more injuries/slumping players and they struggle to win 82. Which is exactly where we were when 2011 began---alot of IFS if we were to contend. I'm hoping SA can do a few really good moves and give us hope for a contending season in 2012.
    OMG another well-thought out fail of a post from this guy.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by bklynny67 View Post
    OMG another well-thought out fail of a post from this guy.
    I did a quick estimate a few weeks ago and determined the Mets would have about $14 million to spend after resigning Reyes, and with a budget of $110 million overall. Despite the difference in calculations, I'm not really sure why you feel it is a fail post by the OP.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  5. #5
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    The Mets should let Pelfrey and Pagan go. I do not seeing Alderson bringing back most of the bullpen. I think you will see new arms out there. You will see a new C.F. next season. Maybe a new short stop and second baseman. too. The starting rotation should be Santana, Dickey and Neise. The rest can go

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by rdg515 View Post

    I figure they could re-sign Jose for a deal that looks something like this: $15M in 2012, $15M in 2013, $20M in 2014, $20M in 2015, $5M buyout for 2016 or a club option for another $17M.
    You figured wrong. You honestly think they're gonna be able to re-sign Reyes for four years $70 million with a mere $17 mill option for a 5th or a $5 mill buyout?

    Get out of your time machine dude and quit partying like it's 1999. Players of Reyes caliber don't sign for those kind of numbers anymore.
    "Mr. Martin Tanner, Baritone, of Dayton, Ohio made his Town Hall debut last night. He came well prepared, but unfortunately his presentation was not up to contemporary professional standards. His voice lacks the range of tonal color necessary to make it consistently interesting. Full time consideration of another endeavor might be in order."

  7. #7
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    I have a gut feeling that someone is going to give Reyes 6 years.
    And it won't be us.

    Hanley has already on the record that he'll move positions, Detriot wants him badly. SF wants him. Some one will cave.
    And it won't be us.


    ďNinety percent Iíll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent Iíll probably waste.Ē
    - Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by clayamtion View Post
    I have a gut feeling that someone is going to give Reyes 6 years.
    And it won't be us.

    Hanley has already on the record that he'll move positions, Detriot wants him badly. SF wants him. Some one will cave.
    And it won't be us.
    Regardless, it will be a heck of a lot more than a guaranteed 4/70.
    "Mr. Martin Tanner, Baritone, of Dayton, Ohio made his Town Hall debut last night. He came well prepared, but unfortunately his presentation was not up to contemporary professional standards. His voice lacks the range of tonal color necessary to make it consistently interesting. Full time consideration of another endeavor might be in order."

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by bklynny67 View Post
    OMG another well-thought out fail of a post from this guy.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by fanofclendennon View Post
    Regardless, it will be a heck of a lot more than a guaranteed 4/70.
    One would surmise.


    ďNinety percent Iíll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent Iíll probably waste.Ē
    - Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary

  11. #11
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    The way I look at and I think Sandy has said this as well, bringing back Reyes will take away a lot of flexibility for the next few years, but if they don't bring him back, it gives them much more flexibility moving forward. So, I think they have to determine Jose's value and is it worth bringing him back and paying him the money he's gonna want. That's a really tough decision. We'll see what Sandy does.

  12. #12
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    It's going to take at least 5/90-5/100 + a 6th year option for the Mets to keep Reyes. While they could back load the deal, 4/70 isn't gonna get it done.

    If that's the Mets' offer to Jose, it would prove that they have no real intention of keeping him. It would be an insult to Reyes, and a disappointment to fans. I'd rather they just say "tahnks for the memories, but we're going in a different direction."


    Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.
    -Sun Tzu

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by rdg515 View Post
    The Mets have only six players signed for next year: Santana [$24M], Bay [$18M], Wright [$15.3M], Dickey [$4.75M], Carrasco [$1.2M] and Byrdak [$1M] = $64M. They have five arbitration eligibles in Pelfrey, Pagan, Parnell and Paulino [I figure Bucholz is gone] that should end up with a total of about $14M. Add in the 12 rookies and second year guys [Niese, Davis, Murphy, Thole, Beato, Duda, Acosta, Evans, Gee, Tejada, Turner, Pridie---if they keep him-- who should average around $500K and a few AAAA players like Nickeas, O'Connor, Alvarez on split contracts] each for another $7M. They may choose to spend $6M on Capuano or someone similar for depth and throw $1M for Harris [I figure Hairston can be replaced by Turner and Evans] which equals $7M. Except for their SS and maybe a new closer that's essentially the entire roster and it adds up to a total of $92M.

    I figure they could re-sign Jose for a deal that looks something like this: $15M in 2012, $15M in 2013, $20M in 2014, $20M in 2015, $5M buyout for 2016 or a club option for another $17M. Lower salary in the first two years while the Bay and Santana contracts run out...an average of $17M overall...which is about the max anyone should pay for his skills and injury history. The only gaping hole is closer and they should be able to get someone like a Joe Nathan or a Matt Capps on the FA market at a discount with an incentive laden contract based on games finished for less than $5M. So, if we keep the ending 2011 roster essentially intact and simply replace KRod's spot the payroll is around $112M...close to the target we have all heard. SA will have to decide whether Pelfrey and Capuano are both worth $6M, as discussed in my other recent post, but $12M is enough to get one very good FA starter [like an Oswalt or better yet E. Jackson] or keep what they have and hope for better results. In any case, if if if Santana resembles his old self, and Wright and Bay rediscover their home run strokes in a revamped Citi Field, if Davis and Murphy pick up where they left off, and Niese, Duda and Gee and Tejada continue to improve---alot of IFS---they could win 90 games. Or, they have more injuries/slumping players and they struggle to win 82. Which is exactly where we were when 2011 began---alot of IFS if we were to contend. I'm hoping SA can do a few really good moves and give us hope for a contending season in 2012.
    with each passing day, i'm getting more and more convinced that the METS will not resign REYES. i think the fact that he was having a career year, only to be derailed by injuries, yet again, coupled with the fact that he'll be looking for JAYSON WERTH, CARL CRAWFORD type money, is enough to scare the WILPONS and their cheapness away and let him explore the market.

    it is scary to see how injury prone this guy is at such a young age and that the METS already have big contract players with injury history (SANTANA, BAY).

    i'd be scared to commit to that kind of contract with REYES too !!!

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Magoo View Post
    It's going to take at least 5/90-5/100 + a 6th year option for the Mets to keep Reyes. While they could back load the deal, 4/70 isn't gonna get it done.

    If that's the Mets' offer to Jose, it would prove that they have no real intention of keeping him. It would be an insult to Reyes, and a disappointment to fans. I'd rather they just say "tahnks for the memories, but we're going in a different direction."
    I just hope the market isn't insane for Jose, but he is such a unique player i don't see even a 5 year deal with a 6th year option cutting it because someone is gonna give him that 6th year guaranteed whether its the Giants, Phillies, Or Brewers unless his injuries are a bigger cause for concern than originally thought
    Last edited by metswon69; 10-28-2011 at 02:49 PM.

  15. #15
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    It's gonna take 6/120 to get Reyes to re-sign. They better do it.

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