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  1. #1
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    Nov 2009
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    Simple Probability Calc for Rangers chance of winning it all Next Year

    Assumptions:
    - probability of winning the AL West or Wild Card (making the tournament) = 75% (this is the variable open for debate)
    - probability of winning Division series = 50%
    - probability of winning ALCS = 50%
    - probability of winning World F'n Series = 50%


    YIELDS: 0.75 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.094 = 9.4% chance of winning the title next year.

    My assumption is built on the empirical fact that once you get into the tournament it seems to be a crapshoot e.g. often time team with the best season record doesnt win hence I give each playoff round a 50/50 chance (crapshoot). If you think the Rangers are built for future success you can adjust the first variable higher or lower than 75%. If you are a Pollyanna that thinks it is a shoe in that the Rangers make the playoffs next year then I suggest their chance of winning it all based on probabilty theory is still only 12.5%. Bottom line: We blew it in game 6 bottom of the 9th with 2 outs and 2 strikes.
    Last edited by zookman65; 10-29-2011 at 03:18 AM.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by zookman65 View Post


    YIELDS: 0.75 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.094 = 9.4% chance of winning the title next year.
    Excellent points Zookman, Put another way if the Rangers make the playoffs 4 out of the next 5 years we still only have less than a 50-50 chance of winning that elusive title. That is what makes Game 6 meltdown all the more sad.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
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    7,859
    Quote Originally Posted by zookman65 View Post
    Excellent points Zookman, Put another way if the Rangers make the playoffs 4 out of the next 5 years we still only have less than a 50-50 chance of winning that elusive title. That is what makes Game 6 meltdown all the more sad.
    Your time will come man. As hard as it is now, it will get better. Winning a World Series is the hardest championship to win out of all the major sports (IMO) but when your time does come all this pain will make it that much sweeter.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
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    6,425
    Quote Originally Posted by zookman65 View Post
    Excellent points Zookman, Put another way if the Rangers make the playoffs 4 out of the next 5 years we still only have less than a 50-50 chance of winning that elusive title. That is what makes Game 6 meltdown all the more sad.
    This cracked me up that you were complimenting yourself. However, you did make a good point in that the playoffs are a pure crap shot.

    Quest to watch a game in all 30 baseball stadiums, so far I have seen: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Colorado, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, Miami, NY Mets, NY Yankees, Philly, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, St. Louis, San Diego, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Texas, Toronto, Washington

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    2,152
    Quote Originally Posted by Bulls_fan90 View Post
    Your time will come man. As hard as it is now, it will get better. Winning a World Series is the hardest championship to win out of all the major sports (IMO) but when your time does come all this pain will make it that much sweeter.
    I think hockey players/fans might disagree with you there. Although, it is your opinion. Some of us get the pain thing making it sweeter already, since a few of us are Mavs fans too.
    Dallas Mavericks 2010-11 NBA CHAMPIONS
    Dirk Nowitzki 2010-2011 Finals MVP

    Texas Rangers 2010, 2011 AL West & AL Champions

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by zookman65 View Post
    Assumptions:
    - probability of winning the AL West or Wild Card (making the tournament) = 75% (this is the variable open for debate)
    - probability of winning Division series = 50%
    - probability of winning ALCS = 50%
    - probability of winning World F'n Series = 50%


    YIELDS: 0.75 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.094 = 9.4% chance of winning the title next year.

    My assumption is built on the empirical fact that once you get into the tournament it seems to be a crapshoot e.g. often time team with the best season record doesnt win hence I give each playoff round a 50/50 chance (crapshoot). If you think the Rangers are built for future success you can adjust the first variable higher or lower than 75%. If you are a Pollyanna that thinks it is a shoe in that the Rangers make the playoffs next year then I suggest their chance of winning it all based on probabilty theory is still only 12.5%. Bottom line: We blew it in game 6 bottom of the 9th with 2 outs and 2 strikes.
    Well there it is fellow Rangers fans.. Game 6, 2 outs, 2 strikes (twice) will haunt us forever. Our numbers now drop drastically from what I wrote above as our chances of making the playoffs in any of the next 3 years is much less than 75% like I postulated at the time in 2011. Time to hit reset on this team

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