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Thread: Do any saber...

  1. #1
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    Do any saber...

    Experts that post on here have an explanation for the historically bad season of Adam Dunn? Or the awful of Carl Crawford?
    I really am curious if I'm missing something.
    Last edited by iam brett favre; 11-05-2011 at 05:44 PM.

    Our QB > Yours

  2. #2
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    There are no "experts" here. Copy/paste doesn't make anyone an expert

    Dunn switching leagues and not being use to DHing might have a play in it. His problem lies between his ears but I am sure someone will come along and merely chalk it up to bad luck. His numbers against LH pitching is beyond abysmal.
    Last edited by RTL; 09-02-2011 at 09:13 AM.

    Would you trust a blind scout? Of course you wouldn't but that's what you do when you simply go by stats

    Only one person doesn't understand the ignore list. Predictable and cowardly

  3. #3
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    dunn simply sucks
    30 Team Stadium Checklist: 10 to go

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    Crawford was overrated and Dunn got old.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pavelb1 View Post
    Crawford was overrated and Dunn got old.
    At least Crawford used to produce for my keeper fantasy team.

    This year has been a disaster. Stolen bases have disappeared, average is down more than 50 points, OPS is off 170 points. He may have been over-rated a bit, but that doesn't explain that kind of dropoff.

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    Crawford - Walks are down, Ks are up, BABip is 40 points below his career mark. We could say it's bad luck considering there's no dramatic change in his LD% or GB%.

    Dunn - I think he went blind. Ks are up 10% his career mark. ISO is 140 points below his mark. Basically he's not hitting ball and when he does it, it's with Juan Pierre-esque power.

    That's the best I can do

    Props.LgnD.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Havoc_Wr3aker View Post
    Crawford - Walks are down, Ks are up, BABip is 40 points below his career mark. We could say it's bad luck considering there's no dramatic change in his LD% or GB%.

    Dunn - I think he went blind. Ks are up 10% his career mark. ISO is 140 points below his mark. Basically he's not hitting ball and when he does it, it's with Juan Pierre-esque power.

    That's the best I can do
    I don't see how that's possible unless his swinging at balls 3 feet out of the zone are resulting in soft pop-ups that for some reason are counted as line-drives.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Havoc_Wr3aker View Post
    Crawford - Walks are down, Ks are up, BABip is 40 points below his career mark. We could say it's bad luck considering there's no dramatic change in his LD% or GB%.

    Dunn - I think he went blind. Ks are up 10% his career mark. ISO is 140 points below his mark. Basically he's not hitting ball and when he does it, it's with Juan Pierre-esque power.

    That's the best I can do
    And he already had historically high K numbers. He's struck out almost 1800 times in his career...

  9. #9
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    All that Adam Dunn "laziness" is finally coming into play. Over the past years hearing him say things like he does not like baseball and does not work out in the offseason are some pretty big red flags, but hes been able to overcome them in the past. switching leagues and not playing the field can make huge impacts when your up at the plate. its almost like Pat Burrell going to the Rays in 09, but worse!

    As for Crawford he seems to have been picking up his play recently but the HUGE drop in Sb (in 2010 had 47, 2009 60) this year with only 17 is just bad for someone who was perhaps the best basestealer in baseball the past few seasons. injuries may have hurt those SB #.

    Also Veron Wells has once again been a let down. in 2010 he had 31 HR and 88 RBI batting 273. Thats good enough to think he would have a better year playing with a serious contender. but not the case at all.. batting 218. is not acceptable for a guy making 26.6 million dollars! obp a terrible .252 it was at a historically low point this season too.

    Why not add one more guy into this group another player who got a big pay day for another team. Jayson Werth who is raising his BA recently still is under respectible .233 all his major stats are at lows for him as a full time starter(past four seasons or so)

    All these guys are having considerable declines in production for last season. Reason way differ between players, but maybe signing big money to play for a new team is perhaps a little harder then it looks, or that you lack the hunger you did when you made less money.. but its baseball, stuff like this happens

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pavelb1 View Post
    I don't see how that's possible unless his swinging at balls 3 feet out of the zone are resulting in soft pop-ups that for some reason are counted as line-drives.
    It's a mix of a terrible approach at the plate and being unlucky when he does manage to put a ball in play. His contact rates and plate discipline in general are atrocious.

  11. #11
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    The red flags showed up last year, but a lot of people ignored them. A huge drop in his BB rate and increase in his K rate. But he still put up good numbers, so nobody really noticed or cared about it.

    The walk rate bounced back a bit, but now he’s striking out like crazy. He can’t hit a fastball to save his life – normally he crushes them. You can see everybody is just challenging him with FB’s, and it looks like he can’t catch up with it. Normally he only gets around 50% FB, now he’s getting 62%. That’s pretty significant to me. Add in the fact he’s making a ton of IF pop ups, and there’s your 150-160 BA.

    Don’t really need saber stats to analyze this one.


    Vic Mackey: You better figure out how much you hate me. And how you're going to deal with that. 'Cause I'm not going anywhere.

    This sums up every sports interview, ever.

  12. #12
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    [QUOTE=Twitchy;19080022]The red flags showed up last year, but a lot of people ignored them. A huge drop in his BB rate and increase in his K rate. But he still put up good numbers, so nobody really noticed or cared about it.
    /QUOTE]

    I don't think there is a red flag big enough to indicate a dropoff from most consistent slugger in the game to Jason Kendall like SLG%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by keymax View Post
    I don't think there is a red flag big enough to indicate a dropoff from most consistent slugger in the game to Jason Kendall like SLG%.
    No, but a 6% drop in walk rate and a 4% increase in K rate is, by definition, a red flag. I didn't say that was the only reason his power is gone, I just said it's something we should have paid more attention to. Especially since that K rate has jumped another 6%, or 10% in the last 2 years.


    Vic Mackey: You better figure out how much you hate me. And how you're going to deal with that. 'Cause I'm not going anywhere.

    This sums up every sports interview, ever.

  14. #14
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    From our very own A-Team:
    It has finally happened. The Chicago White Sox have announced that Adam Dunn will see his playing time reduced.

    No amount of hyperbole can adequately describe how dreadful Dunn's season has been. I like to imagine that when H.P. Lovecraft first created his Cthulhu mythos, he was anticipating the unfathomable alienness of Dunn's collapse. As Dave Cameron presented today, Dunn is alone as the only "good" player who has ever been this bad—at least according to FanGraphs's iteration of Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

    Whether you prefer the new school or old school of statistics, the depth of Dunn's offensive despair is impressive (or to a ChiSox fan, depressive). As a full-time first baseman in 2010 with the Washington Nationals, Dunn managed 3.5 WAR. As an almost full-time designated hitter*, Dunn has been exactly six wins worse, clocking in at negative 2.5 WAR.

    In 435 plate appearances, he has just 11 home runs and only 40 RBI. His triple slash of .163/.290/.289 could have made a spot appearance in Tracy Jordan's fictitious movie Hard To Watch. His ratio of home runs to fly balls is only 10.9 percent. It is his only season under 20 percent since he was a rookie in 2002.

    *Interestingly, despite playing only 274.2 IP or roughly 31 games in the field this year, Ultimate Zone Rating believes that Dunn has cost the White Sox more runs defensively (-6.3 UZR) than he cost the Nationals all of last season (-3.1 UZR).

    Perhaps Dunn is the only "good" player to put together a -2.5 WAR season in the last 50 years, but he's not the only recent prolific power hitter to utterly disappear over a short period of time. Consider the following triple slashes:

    2006: .262/.363/.531
    2007: .222/.311/.413
    2008: .158/.256/.249 in 231 PA

    Those numbers belong to Andruw Jones, a former 50-home run hitter who quickly crumpled from superstar to brand-name utility bench player. Recall that Dunn is at .163/.290/.289, which doesn't look too different from Jones' decrepit 2008.

    Jones wasn't given the opportunity to damage his team quite as much as Dunn has—fewer plate appearances and decent defense left Jones with only negative 1.0 WAR. Jones also experienced a two-year plunge into the abyss before climbing back out, rather than an unexpected single-season cliff dive.

    Since escaping the Dodgers, Jones hasn't recovered his star talent, but he has rebounded as a great fourth outfielder. In 2011, his .378 wOBA over 164 plate appearances with the Yankees have been roughly 40 percent above league average.

    This comparison is not to suggest that Dunn will follow the path of Jones. But perhaps Dunn's season-long meltdown isn't as unfathomably alien as it appears.
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/co...e-black-holes/

  15. #15
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    Not exactly what you asked for but it's somewhat pertinent.

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