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  1. #1
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    Twins sign Mike Pelfrey to 2-year 11mm contract


  2. #2
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    Not a real surprise. Frankly, I like the deal.

  3. #3
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    Terrible signing the guy came off surgery to us and played terrible and he gets 2 years and more money? what kind of logic is that?

  4. #4
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    Sometimes you pay a player for what he can provide. You don't always look for the top tier players to add to your team... If Pelfrey can pitch to a #4 type role, I'll be very happy with this signing. I can't help but wonder if Pelfrey + Hughes money would get us Garza. I'm just saying.
    Quote Originally Posted by viksalltheway! View Post
    guys like me would be more like an assistant to the GM

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by WSU Tony View Post
    Sometimes you pay a player for what he can provide. You don't always look for the top tier players to add to your team... If Pelfrey can pitch to a #4 type role, I'll be very happy with this signing. I can't help but wonder if Pelfrey + Hughes money would get us Garza. I'm just saying.
    And what does he provide exactly? with a 5.19 ERA 5-13 W-L record 1.55 WHIP and .300 BAA?

  6. #6
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    i mean there's no excuse for this contract

  7. #7
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    Here we go again.

    The philosophical part of this post: While all of us would like to sign the "best" at a position, it's just not going to happen. What this means - paying a #3 pitcher for #3 pitcher money is good. Paying a #4 pitcher #5 pitcher money is great. The Hardball times did an article about what to "expect" from a certain # pitcher. We all spend time focusing on the #1-#3 guys because it is fun. Lets take a look at the lesser known #4 and #5 guys.

    BB/9 IP
    Pelfrey: 3.1
    Equates to an elite #3 starter as the suggested range for a #3 starter is 2.95 – 3.41 BB/9 for that role.

    K/9 IP
    Pelfrey: 6
    Equates to an average #3 starter as the suggested range for a #3 is Starter: 6.86 – 5.44 K/9.

    Pitch movement: could not find stats.

    xFIP (overall value)
    Pelfrey: 4.5
    Equates to the worst of the #3 starters or best of #4 starters as the suggested range for a #3 Starter: 4.19 – 4.51 xFIP.

    These were the only 4 groups the numbers were broken down into what to "expect" from a certain "#" starter in a rotation.

    What you see - Horrible pitcher getting money from the Twins. What I see - a pitcher who's worst season pitched like a suggested fringe #3 pitcher. We paid him like a #4 pitcher and assume he (30 years young) can't get any worse over the next two years as he was this past year.
    Last edited by WSU Tony; 12-18-2013 at 05:27 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by viksalltheway! View Post
    guys like me would be more like an assistant to the GM

  8. #8
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    Everyone wants $50 prime rib if someone else is buying. But, sometimes you have to settle for a $10 juicy Lucy and know it is worth more than a $1 McDonalds burger.
    Quote Originally Posted by viksalltheway! View Post
    guys like me would be more like an assistant to the GM

  9. #9
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    And I should mention - Even though 150-200 innings you'd think an ERA would be a pretty good representative of how well a pitcher pitched, sometimes it can be off a bit. Pitchers have great years getting batters out when runners are on base. Other pitchers have abnormally high home run rates for a stretch when runners are on base. ERA is a good place to start (most of the time) when evaluating how effective a pitcher is. After ERA, though, other statistics go to show whether the pitcher actually deserves that ERA or not.

    I wouldn't be even slightly optimistic about Hughes if it weren't for his "other" statistics. Maybe I'll do a write up of what I see if some of you would be interested in it. I'm not saying Hughes will be a #2 for us but I am slightly optimistic about him at Target field...
    Quote Originally Posted by viksalltheway! View Post
    guys like me would be more like an assistant to the GM

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by WSU Tony View Post
    Here we go again.

    The philosophical part of this post: While all of us would like to sign the "best" at a position, it's just not going to happen. What this means - paying a #3 pitcher for #3 pitcher money is good. Paying a #4 pitcher #5 pitcher money is great. The Hardball times did an article about what to "expect" from a certain # pitcher. We all spend time focusing on the #1-#3 guys because it is fun. Lets take a look at the lesser known #4 and #5 guys.

    BB/9 IP
    Pelfrey: 3.1
    Equates to an elite #3 starter as the suggested range for a #3 starter is 2.95 – 3.41 BB/9 for that role.

    K/9 IP
    Pelfrey: 6
    Equates to an average #3 starter as the suggested range for a #3 is Starter: 6.86 – 5.44 K/9.

    Pitch movement: could not find stats.

    xFIP (overall value)
    Pelfrey: 4.5
    Equates to the worst of the #3 starters or best of #4 starters as the suggested range for a #3 Starter: 4.19 – 4.51 xFIP.

    These were the only 4 groups the numbers were broken down into what to "expect" from a certain "#" starter in a rotation.

    What you see - Horrible pitcher getting money from the Twins. What I see - a pitcher who's worst season pitched like a suggested fringe #3 pitcher. We paid him like a #4 pitcher and assume he (30 years young) can't get any worse over the next two years as he was this past year.
    What i see is a pitcher off tommy john who has proven to me that he isn't ready to get to be who he can really be. Also i did it your way i showed you numbers and sure you can find some stats that show he has good in him but when you look at the major stats people look at he is terrible i would like for him to maybe have shown up on another team on a minor league deal with a invite that's what he is worth to me.

  11. #11
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    You claim i want the best pitchers out there no im happy with ricky and phil there not top tier at least in my opinion i want pitchers who can get the job done not necessarily someone who is over the top but a player i can put faith into and pelfrey isn't there yet.

  12. #12
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    To you who want's me to show who i would like i would like jason hammel, jeff niemann, jerome williams.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by viksalltheway! View Post
    And what does he provide exactly? with a 5.19 ERA 5-13 W-L record 1.55 WHIP and .300 BAA?
    Quote Originally Posted by viksalltheway! View Post
    i mean there's no excuse for this contract
    Quote Originally Posted by viksalltheway! View Post
    What i see is a pitcher off tommy john who has proven to me that he isn't ready to get to be who he can really be. Also i did it your way i showed you numbers and sure you can find some stats that show he has good in him but when you look at the major stats people look at he is terrible i would like for him to maybe have shown up on another team on a minor league deal with a invite that's what he is worth to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by viksalltheway! View Post
    You claim i want the best pitchers out there no im happy with ricky and phil there not top tier at least in my opinion i want pitchers who can get the job done not necessarily someone who is over the top but a player i can put faith into and pelfrey isn't there yet.
    2012 Hughes ERA - 5.19
    2012 Pelfrey ERA - 5.19

    Anyone can use google to find stats to back up their point. Being able to look up stats with a clean non opinionated slate then formulate an opinion based on the statistics you see is a skill.
    Quote Originally Posted by viksalltheway! View Post
    guys like me would be more like an assistant to the GM

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by WSU Tony View Post
    2012 Hughes ERA - 5.19
    2012 Pelfrey ERA - 5.19

    Anyone can use google to find stats to back up their point. Being able to look up stats with a clean non opinionated slate then formulate an opinion based on the statistics you see is a skill.
    Using google is skill? Lol here's the thing whose gotta better track record phil hughes or pelfrey think about that. Who do you see making a bigger impact and please don't say pelfrey.

  15. #15
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    Using google doesn't take a skill. Reading stats to develop your opinion (rather than finding stats to support an opinion) is a skill.

    Using your stats.

    ERA
    Pelfrey 4.48
    Hughes 4.54

    WHIP
    Pelfrey 1.47
    Hughes 1.32

    I wouldn't say either of your stats show a better track record. W/L will be dropped from the discussion because A: it's a terrible way to judge a pitcher and B: Playing for the Yankees will always inflate your record.

    I see Hughes making a bigger impact than Pelfrey but not because of your stats. Look up baseball reference and check the home/away splits.

    Now we're talking stats.
    Quote Originally Posted by viksalltheway! View Post
    guys like me would be more like an assistant to the GM

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