upcoming MMA odds and gambling thread

[zn23]

odds for first fox card came out on sportbook:

Henderson is a big fav. over Diaz. -300. I'm guessing they are taking into account the fact that he is a champ, that he beat Frankie, that he pretty much can't lose a close decision, and that his grappling skills are very good considering he destroy Jim Miller and performed well against Bocek. He also has leg kicks, and he Diaz never checks leg kicks.

I think Diaz is a good play here at +240. But can't underestimate Ben Henderson who is the best LW in the world.

Gustaffson is a slight favorite over Shogun at -145. I'm guessing what they took into account was Gus' 5 straight wins, his performance against Thiago Silva. Also took into account Shogun's performance against Vera.

If I was betting, I would probably go with Shogun here a +115, I don't think you will find better odds for future Shogun fights than that. Unless he fights someone like Rashad.

No surprise BJ is a big underdog against Rory. I wish BJ would take this fight seriously but that seems unlikely. If Rory loses this fight, it's going to say a lot about him.

Chael is no surprise a big fav. over Forrest, -265. This fight is ridiculous, no way to bet on Forrest anymore.

[steelcityroller]

odds for first fox card came out on sportbook:

Henderson is a big fav. over Diaz. -300. I'm guessing they are taking into account the fact that he is a champ, that he beat Frankie, that he pretty much can't lose a close decision, and that his grappling skills are very good considering he destroy Jim Miller and performed well against Bocek. He also has leg kicks, and he Diaz never checks leg kicks.

I think Diaz is a good play here at +240. But can't underestimate Ben Henderson who is the best LW in the world.

Gustaffson is a slight favorite over Shogun at -145. I'm guessing what they took into account was Gus' 5 straight wins, his performance against Thiago Silva. Also took into account Shogun's performance against Vera.

If I was betting, I would probably go with Shogun here a +115, I don't think you will find better odds for future Shogun fights than that. Unless he fights someone like Rashad.

No surprise BJ is a big underdog against Rory. I wish BJ would take this fight seriously but that seems unlikely. If Rory loses this fight, it's going to say a lot about him.

Chael is no surprise a big fav. over Forrest, -265. This fight is ridiculous, no way to bet on Forrest anymore.

I will absolutely take Nate Diaz at those odds. But I'm not touching the other 2 fights...

[zn23]

Diaz is a strong play. But I would have to hedge the pick, cause I don't think he can win a decision especially if its a close decision.

I would consider Diaz to win via Submission straddled with Henderson to win via Decision.

[zn23]

Some odds I found interesting for upcoming bout...

Matt Wiman -115
Paul Sass -125

Call my a skeptic but I haven't been impressed with Paul Sass. Mainly because I haven't seen anything other than his ground game. I think there is great value here for taking Wiman to win the fight. Wiman is so much more well rounded. The last two wins that Sass has, have come from two big mistakes by his opponents. Michael Johnson aimlessly exposed his leg. Volkmann has no submission defense. Obviously that's what happens when you get submitted, one guy makes a mistake. But I can't see that in this fight I have Matt Wiman all the way.

Akira Corrasani +110
Ogle -150

I'm not considering betting on this fight but I laughed at the line. Cause Ogle is not good at all. Akira hasn't proven much either, and I question his endurance coming off a big lay-off. But from what I've seen at TUF I would say Akira is clearly the better guy.

Jimi Manuwa -160
Kyle Kingsbury +120

Those odds are about right. I would not bet on Kingsbury, especially against a prospect. I've seen some of Manuwa's fights. He's a beast with huge punching power. Has good wrestling skills. He's a good bet.

[steelcityroller]

Some odds I found interesting for upcoming bout...

Matt Wiman -115
Paul Sass -125

Call my a skeptic but I haven't been impressed with Paul Sass. Mainly because I haven't seen anything other than his ground game. I think there is great value here for taking Wiman to win the fight. Wiman is so much more well rounded. The last two wins that Sass has, have come from two big mistakes by his opponents. Michael Johnson aimlessly exposed his leg. Volkmann has no submission defense. Obviously that's what happens when you get submitted, one guy makes a mistake. But I can't see that in this fight I have Matt Wiman all the way.

Akira Corrasani +110
Ogle -150

I'm not considering betting on this fight but I laughed at the line. Cause Ogle is not good at all. Akira hasn't proven much either, and I question his endurance coming off a big lay-off. But from what I've seen at TUF I would say Akira is clearly the better guy.

Jimi Manuwa -160
Kyle Kingsbury +120

Those odds are about right. I would not bet on Kingsbury, especially against a prospect. I've seen some of Manuwa's fights. He's a beast with huge punching power. Has good wrestling skills. He's a good bet.

I agree with you on the first two fights. Wiman and Akira both have clear ways that they can win those fights and are solid dogs.

[Thumper 88]

I talked about something like this before. Like if a fighter loses and he should have won.

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2012...efunds-to.html

[zn23]

That will never happen in combat sports. There has been several situations where they have not overturned calls. For example Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater. The referee admitted he made a mistake but it still goes on Silva's record as a DQ loss. Same thing happened with Manny Pacquiao and Tim Bradley. An overwhelming amount of experts felt Pacquiao won the fight by a large margin and they did not overturn the call.

[Thumper 88]

O yeah I hear ya. Do you that casino opened the door or are they just making waves?

[steelcityroller]

O yeah I hear ya. Do you that casino opened the door or are they just making waves?

There have been a few give refunds for blown calls or judgements in fights. There was a couple books that refunded all wagers on that Manny vs Bradley fight.

[Thumper 88]

Good for them. I bet they get all their business back and then some.

[zn23]

UFC 155...

The bets I like are...

Eddie Wineland at -120 (even odds) to beat Brad Pickett. I consider Wineland one of the best fighters in that division. His demolition of Scott Jorgensen was highly impressive. One of the best parts about his game is that he uses his range really well. Both guys have almost identical reach, but Eddie moves better in the ring than Brad, who is more of a stalker type of fighter. I'm expecting a knockout win.

Costa Phillipou at -120 over Tim Boetsch. If there was a most improved fighter award it would go to Phillipou. I was highly impressed with his victory over Riki Fukuda. I think he's going to the same to Boestch as Okami. He's got far superior boxing and moves really well, he's good at slipping punches. Has very good TDD. I can't see Boetsch winning this fight.

The main event I like Cain Velasquez at +160. If you evaluate both fighters I think you'll see that Cain has more ways to win the fight than Junior. I believe Cain is the better fighter. If Cain will follow the gameplan to go in and takedown Junior and hold him down he can win this fight easily. We haven't seen Junior off of his back. But after watching Big Foot get completely neutralized on the ground I can't imagine Junior having much success either.

[zn23]

Tonight was a very good night lol. :P

[TheRedMarauder]

I won with Derek Brunson at +160.

[zn23]

I won with Derek Brunson at +160.

nice pick.

[zn23]

There are some one-sided matchups in the card, but a couple of fights I really like...

I love Evan Dunham at +100 over Gleison Tibau. I'm kind of surprised that he's an underdog considering he recently had a very good fight with TJ Grant who is becoming a threat in that division. Dunham is very well rounded in every part of the game. I think his stand up is overwhelmingly better than Tibau's. He's got great TDD. I see this is a clear UD win for Dunham. I'm jumping on this line right away.


Jose Aldo winning over Frankie Edgar inside the distance at +150. That's the best odds you will get for taking Aldo. While Frankie is good and he has heart, he has flaws. He moves his feet well, but he doesn't move his head well and he eats a lot of punches, as evident by his face at the end of fights. Don't believe me? Look at the fight metric stats for his last 5 fights. This is against slower opponents. Aldo on the other hand, doesn't get hit a lot. The last person to land a lot of punches on Aldo was Hominick and that was because Aldo gassed out in round 4-5 and got taken down. I don't think that happens here. I think he knocks out Frankie Edgar inside the distance.