upcoming MMA odds and gambling thread

[steelcityroller]

Just thought would throw out some of these odds for discussion.

UFC 130

Rampage Jackson -280 (+235 to win by KO/TKO)
Matt Hamill +240 (+345 to win by decision)

Frank Mir -135
Roy Nelson +115 (+325 to win by decision)

Brian Stann -135 (+185 to win by KO/TKO)
Jorge Santiago +115

Travis Browne -165
Stefan Struve +145 (+560 to win by decision)

Thiago Alves -200 (+245 to win inside the distance)
Rick Story +170

Miguel Torres -110
Demetrius Johnson -110

UFC 131

Junior Dos Santos -170
Shane Carwin +150

UFC Live

Nate Marquardt -165
Anthony Johnson +145

UFC 132

Dominick Cruz -120
Urijah Faber +100

Wanderlei Silva -170 (-120 that fight won't go the distance)
Chris Leben +150

Dong Hyun Kim -115
Carlos Condit -105

Ryan Bader -500 (+110 that fight won't go the distance)
Tito Ortiz +400

Melvin Guillard -270
Shane Roller +230

Dennis Siver -130 (+140 that fight won't go the distance)
Matt Wiman +110

UFC 133

Rashad Evans -125
Phil Davis +105

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira -160
Rich Franklin +140

Vitor Belfort -290
Yoshihiro Akiyama +245

UFC 134

Anderson Silva -370
Yushin Okami +310

Shogun Rua -220 (+180 that fight goes the distance)
Forrest Griffin +180

Georges St. Pierre -450
Nick Diaz +330

I put some of the ones that I really like in bold.

[yanks19791024]

I got big money on Nelson and Hamill in a parlay

[steelcityroller]

Some new ones for UFC 131

Mark Munoz -130
Demian Maia +100

Kenny Florian -300
Diego Nunes +220

Dave Herman -260
Jon Olav Einemo +200

I really like Demian Maia at those odds. Also I think that I'm gonna take a shot on Einemo at those odds. He is 6-1 with his only loss being a decision to Fabricio Werdum in Pride. He has world class BJJ and has been training his standup the last couple years with some high level kickboxers at Golden Glory like Alistair Overeem, Semmy Schilt and Sergei Kharitonov.

[steelcityroller]

The more I read about Einemo the more I think he could be a steal at +200. According to what I read on a couple sites he hadn't fought since 2006 and after doing some digging have found that to be false. He is actually 7-1 and fought last summer and won by submission. So he is 7-1 with all 7 wins by submission and the only loss being a close decision to Fabricio Werdum.

Also the guy apparently has been training with Alistair Overeem and Kharitonov for the last 3 years. According to sources from Golden Glory apparently he is now one of the better strikers in their camp. You couple that with the fact that he was the 2003 ADCC champion and has wins against guys like Roger Gracie, Rolles Gracie, Alexandre Ferreira, Fabricio Werdum and Brandon Vera in grappling competition then he could be a huge darkhorse.

[steelcityroller]

I really like this parlay.

Sam Stout over Yves Edwards
Krzysztof over Igor Pokrajac
Cheick Kongo over Pat Barry
Jeremy Stephens over Danny Downes

at +425

[Swagger11]

I really like this parlay.

Sam Stout over Yves Edwards
Krzysztof over Igor Pokrajac
Cheick Kongo over Pat Barry
Jeremy Stephens over Danny Downes

at +425

Why? Barry is going to destroy Kongo with ease.

Siver is an absolute steal, and it'll be the 2nd time in a row he is. I knew he was going to murder G-Sot and I know he's going to murder Wiman. Thats money in the bank.

[steelcityroller]

Why? Barry is going to destroy Kongo with ease.

Siver is an absolute steal, and it'll be the 2nd time in a row he is. I knew he was going to murder G-Sot and I know he's going to murder Wiman. Thats money in the bank.

How do you gather that Barry will destroy Kongo with ease? Pat Barry may have an advantage standing up but Cheick Kongo has a huge advantage wrestling and on the ground. They have 3 fights in common Antoni Hardonk, Dan Evensen and Mirko Crocop. Cheick Kongo won all 3 of those fights while Pat Barry lost to Mirko Crocop. You look at the recent losses for both guys and Kongo has lost to Frank Mir (6-2 in last 8 fights with wins against Nelson, Kongo, Lesnar, Big Nog and Crocop) and Cain Velasquez (undefeated UFC champ) while Pat Barry has lost to Mirko Crocop (2-3 in last 5 fights) and Tim Hague (2-4 in last 6 fights and went 1-4 in the UFC).

[steelcityroller]

Some new odds that I like on this card.

Carwin vs Junior Dos Santos to end inside 2 rounds -160

Jon Olav Einemo to win by submission +400

[steelcityroller]

If Kenny Florian, Demian Maia and Einemo all win then I'm gonna be a very happy man tonight.

[Swagger11]

How do you gather that Barry will destroy Kongo with ease? Pat Barry may have an advantage standing up but Cheick Kongo has a huge advantage wrestling and on the ground. They have 3 fights in common Antoni Hardonk, Dan Evensen and Mirko Crocop. Cheick Kongo won all 3 of those fights while Pat Barry lost to Mirko Crocop. You look at the recent losses for both guys and Kongo has lost to Frank Mir (6-2 in last 8 fights with wins against Nelson, Kongo, Lesnar, Big Nog and Crocop) and Cain Velasquez (undefeated UFC champ) while Pat Barry has lost to Mirko Crocop (2-3 in last 5 fights) and Tim Hague (2-4 in last 6 fights and went 1-4 in the UFC).

MMA math doesnt mean squat. Simple fact, Berry is 10X the striker Kongo is. Kongo won't take him down, and will get dropped harder than when he did vs Frank Mir.

[steelcityroller]

MMA math doesnt mean squat. Simple fact, Berry is 10X the striker Kongo is. Kongo won't take him down, and will get dropped harder than when he did vs Frank Mir.

In his last 10 fights the only fight where he hasn't at least attempted one takedown was against Frank Mir and it's pretty obvious why in that fight. Kongo is seen as a big striker but the reality is that he has a 70% takedown rate and his last 4 wins have come on the ground.

He didn't stand and bang with Mirko Crocop. He didn't stand and bang with Antoni Hardonk. He didn't stand and bang with Heath Herring. He didn't stand and bang with Paul Buentello. Those guys are all known as strikers and Kongo didn't stand with those guys. Why would you expect anything different against Pat Barry? Especially considering that Kongo is 1-2-1 in his last 4 fights and on the verge of being cut.

There is only two outcomes in my eyes. Either Pat Barry knocks Kongo out or Cheick Kongo gets him against the cage or on the ground and grinds him to death. I look at the fighters and Pat Barry is better than Cheick Kongo standing up but Cheick Kongo is alot better than Pat Barry on the ground.

[Metal Militia]

Looks like JDS is the early favorite at -125 against Cain Velasquez -105

http://www.mmamania.com/2011/6/13/22...ned-as-the-125

According to linesmaker Nick Kalikas of BetonFighting.com, it's number one contender Junior dos Santos, who was immediately inserted as the -125 favorite in his still unscheduled upcoming bout against Cain Velasquez.

The heavyweight champion stands as the slight underdog at -105.

Anyone jumping on this line with wallets wide open? Or do you expect a dramatic shift as we get closer and closer to fight night, whenever that may be?

There are obviously a few factors at play here.

Dos Santos just blasted past Shane Carwin, emphatically putting a stamp on his status as the second best heavyweight in the division with a convincing win at UFC 131.

Add that with Velasquez coming off a long layoff and a serious shoulder injury, which required even more serious surgery, and it's easy to see why the oddsmakers have inserted "Cigano" as the early favorite.

The lines will shift and move as the betting dictates, of course, but the consensus opinion seems to be that they'll hold steady right where they are now.

[steelcityroller]

Looks like JDS is the early favorite at -125 against Cain Velasquez -105

http://www.mmamania.com/2011/6/13/22...ned-as-the-125

I wish my book would hurry up and release those odds out because I will certainly take Velasquez at -105 in that fight.

[steelcityroller]

Michael Bisping -225
Mayhem Miller +185

[steelcityroller]

On my books here are some that I found interesting

Cain Velasquez -150
Junior Dos Santos +120

Jon Jones -385
Rampage Jackson +325

Diego Sanchez -215
Matt Hughes +170

Brendan Schaub -220
Big Nog +180