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  1. #1
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    Expected Win/Loss or SRS Rating, which the better measurement?

    This year,

    Bulls
    62-20
    PTS/G: 98.6 (20th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 91.3 (2nd of 30)
    SRS: 6.53 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (23rd of 30)
    Off Rtg: 108.3 (11th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (1st of 30)
    Expected W-L: 61-21 (1st of 30)

    Miami
    58-24
    PTS/G: 102.1 (8th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.6 (6th of 30)
    SRS: 6.76 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.9 (20th of 30)
    Off Rtg: 111.7 (3rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.5 (5th of 30)
    Expected W-L: 61-21 (2nd of 30)


    So if the two teams square off in a playoff series right now, whose stats seem stronger? Miami's SRS or Chicago's Expected W-L?
    Last edited by JordansBulls; 05-11-2011 at 11:34 AM.
    "Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships."
    - Michael Jordan

    Thanks MJ-Bulls for the picture.

  2. #2
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    SRS is my go-to statistic because it factors in the most important things: point differential and strength of schedule. I actually incorrectly assumed those two stats went hand and hand but this shows there can be a slight discrepancy. To be honest I don't know how Expected W-L is calculated. Can anyone enlighten me on that?

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnicksorBust View Post
    SRS is my go-to statistic because it factors in the most important things: point differential and strength of schedule. I actually incorrectly assumed those two stats went hand and hand but this shows there can be a slight discrepancy. To be honest I don't know how Expected W-L is calculated. Can anyone enlighten me on that?
    bump

  4. #4
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    Updated
    "Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships."
    - Michael Jordan

    Thanks MJ-Bulls for the picture.

  5. #5
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    Expected W-L is just another name for Pythagorean W-L. Basically, its an extension of Bill James work in baseball to basketball.

    From the basketball-reference glossary:

    Pythagorean Wins; the formula is G * (Tm PTS14 / (Tm PTS14 + Opp PTS14)).
    Patriots Forum HOF Class of 2011

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by patsSOXknicks View Post
    Expected W-L is just another name for Pythagorean W-L. Basically, its an extension of Bill James work in baseball to basketball.

    From the basketball-reference glossary:
    So record based solely on point differential.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnicksorBust View Post
    So record based solely on point differential.
    Yup, thats why I would prefer SRS.
    Patriots Forum HOF Class of 2011

  8. #8
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    BBall Reference has updated this now. I think what is happening is now that Bball reference is combining the SRS rating of the regular season and playoffs together and uses that one as the new average for the SRS rating

    Miami for 2011 is 6.58 now and Chicago 6.13 (went down)

    Dallas's went from 4.41 to now 5.31. Lakers went from 6.01 to 5.29

    2011 Dallas Mavericks
    57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
    Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)

    SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ? Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
    Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ? Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
    Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)

    SRS: 6.01 (3rd of 30) ? Pace: 90.7 (21st of 30)
    Off Rtg: 111.0 (6th of 30) ? Def Rtg: 104.3 (6th of 30)
    Expected W-L: 58-24 (3rd of 30)
    "Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships."
    - Michael Jordan

    Thanks MJ-Bulls for the picture.

  9. #9
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    It just goes to show you shocking the Mavericks winning the title really was statistically.

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