Would a Boise State TCU National Championship be possible?

[ericchow]

If Boise and TCU run the table and Auburn and Oregon lost a game each do you think it would be Boise v TCU or would a one loss team jump over one or both of them? Would you enjoy a Boise TCU game?

[Rivera]

one maybe no way both makes it

if oregon lost one game they will still prolly win the pac 10 and go jump one of these teams

if auburn beats georgia and looses to alabama they will still go to SEC champ n if they win that they r going automatically

[Pierzynski4Prez]

That is what I am hoping for.

[sfbayareafan]

Strength of schedule:

Auburn #2
LSU #5
Boise State #58
TCU #61
Oregon #80

Yes^ thats what it would look like if everything holds the same at the end of the year. So in this hypothetical scenario, Boise State has a harder strength of schedule than oregon. And the sec, obviously, have a much tougher schedule than the rest. So looking at that information, objectively unless both sec teams have 2 losses, a non aq championship shouldnt happen. And that would be a tragedy if a 1 loss oregon jumped boise especially when looking at their strength of schedule. Also, boise should be ahead of tcu according to this as well.

[BradyIsTheMan12]

I may be mistaken but I thought Sagarin had Oregon's SOS at 36 this week? If that's the case, there is no way Oregon's SOS ends up at 80 with Cal, Arizona, and OSU left; again I could be mistaken though.

[sfbayareafan]

I may be mistaken but I thought Sagarin had Oregon's SOS at 36 this week? If that's the case, there is no way Oregon's SOS ends up at 80 with Cal, Arizona, and OSU left; again I could be mistaken though.

maybe... ill check. Someone emailed me a link showing uo at 80 by the end of the year. Ill make sure thats correct.

[sfbayareafan]

http://www.gberatings.com/sos/

well I found this, dont know how accurate it is.

as of november 6 it says

# 78

* Boise State

# 107

* Oregon

a 20+ jump in the rankings by the end of the year would leave oregon around the 80 mark and make sense considering their final 3 games. Meanwhile Boise still has to play nevada and a 6-2 fresno state, and I think they play one more game than oregon overall. That should make them jump 20 spots leaving them around the 50 mark.

[ChiSoxJuan]

You guys are assuming to much of the human polls. They obviously like TCU over Boise St. So an undefeated TCU is likely playing in the NC game if either Oregon or Auburn stumble. While I think an undefeated Boise St gets the nod of a 1 loss Oregon, it won't over a 1 loss Auburn. Auburn can afford to lose to Ala as long as it wins the SEC championship. The human polls love their BIG conference champions.

The wild card for Boise St though is whether or not the humans decide to punish Auburn for the alledged infractions involving Cam Newton.

[desertrat218]

http://www.gberatings.com/sos/

well I found this, dont know how accurate it is.

as of november 6 it says

# 78

* Boise State

# 107

* Oregon

a 20+ jump in the rankings by the end of the year would leave oregon around the 80 mark and make sense considering their final 3 games. Meanwhile Boise still has to play nevada and a 6-2 fresno state, and I think they play one more game than oregon overall. That should make them jump 20 spots leaving them around the 50 mark.

I've never heard of GBE, but I can immediately see they are way off. Take a look at Sagarin, his poll is actually part of the BCS formula.
http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm

Also notice that the Pac 10 is rated as the toughest conference overall with the Big 12 2nd and the SEC 3rd.

[haggis]

^that.
Those other SOS polls don't matter, Sagarin is the one's who is used in the BCS.

Oregon 36
Auburn 40
TCU 62
BSU 72

[BradyIsTheMan12]

I thought I was correct, good find guys.

[sfbayareafan]

I've never heard of GBE, but I can immediately see they are way off. Take a look at Sagarin, his poll is actually part of the BCS formula.
http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm

Also notice that the Pac 10 is rated as the toughest conference overall with the Big 12 2nd and the SEC 3rd.

^that.
Those other SOS polls don't matter, Sagarin is the one's who is used in the BCS.

Oregon 36
Auburn 40
TCU 62
BSU 72

GBE is a component of the Massey rankings which is, you know, also used in the bcs rankings so it also matters. Interesting to see two different perspectives on this. Just another reason why the bcs is messed up, they have formulas which consist of widely differing rankings.

[desertrat218]

GBE is a component of the Massey rankings which is, you know, also used in the bcs rankings so it also matters. Interesting to see two different perspectives on this. Just another reason why the bcs is messed up, they have formulas which consist of widely differing rankings.

I did a little digging to see who makes the GBE system since it seemed obviously biased towards the SEC. This is what I found: http://www.eng.lsu.edu/about/des/fac...eorge.eldredge

I got his name from here: http://www.nutshellsports.com/wilson/

[NYYankees12]

Yes and No.

If Auburn loses to Georgia or Alabama and wins the SEC Championship. They're in

If Auburn loses to Georgia AND Alabama and LSU wins out. They (LSU) plays in the SECCG and if they win, they are in. If Auburn or LSU play in the SECCG and lose, neither will get in.

If Oregon wins out, they're in.

If Oregon loses, they're out.

TCU needs One of the losing situations above to happen to make the Championship game.

Boise St needs one of the losing situations above to happen AND TCU to lose to make the Championship game. OR 2 of the situations above to happen and then ply TCU.

Honestly, too much needs to happen for Stanford, Wisconsin or Nebraska to make it.

[Catfish1314]

If Auburn loses to Georgia or Alabama and wins the SEC Championship. They're in

If Auburn loses to Georgia (10 games into the season is not bowl eligible) at home I can't see them getting in over TCU.

If Auburn heads into the SEC Championship Game with Alabama as their only loss, a win in Atlanta may not be enough. What if the winner of tomorrow's game (Florida/South Carolina) loses its annual game against their ACC rival (FSU/Clemson)? Chances are that team wouldn't even be ranked when Auburn plays them. So Auburn could potentially be playing an 8-4 unranked team for the SEC Championship. A victory there may not even be enough to climb ahead of TCU, who would certainly jump them if they lost to Alabama.

The SEC most likely won't have an undefeated champion this year. Beating Auburn is basically Alabama's season now. Unless something crazy happens, all they have to look forward to is the Iron Bowl and a January bowl. And this year, the amount of respect for teams like Boise State and TCU is clearly higher than it has ever been.

Say Alabama beats Auburn. Oregon, TCU, and Boise win out. I honestly think a loss that late in the season would kill Auburn and Oregon and TCU would play for the title. Like I said before, I'm as SEC as they come.

LSU in 2007 lost two overtime games, but got in because the teams ahead of them kept losing. Florida in 2008 benefitted from an early season loss and then destroyed almost every team they played the rest of the year. If Auburn loses to Alabama, I don't think they'll have time to make up the ground just by beating a 9-3 or 8-4 SEC East champ. Unless they absolutely dominate.