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  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosh View Post
    Bump. DEF: #1, OFF: #16
    tight. we are moving up on offense.

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by shammyguy3 View Post
    Yeah, DRtg isn't that great for an "individual" person. But, for team defense it's great. And, when you have that many guys posting sub-100 DRtgs and low-100 ratings, it shows how great of a defensive team we are.
    Yeah, Drtg is a very good measure of team defense.

    If Thibs doesn't win Coach of the Year, it would be an utter failure on the part of the voters. No one has even come close to getting the most out of his team than Thibs (except maybe Pop). I mean, look at our players defensively. Other than Deng, Brewer, sometimes Taj, and Kurt (man-to-man) we don't have any great defenders. The fact that we have the best defense in the NBA is due completely to Thibodeau. He completely transformed the team from last year.

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by shammyguy3 View Post
    Yeah, DRtg isn't that great for an "individual" person. But, for team defense it's great. And, when you have that many guys posting sub-100 DRtgs and low-100 ratings, it shows how great of a defensive team we are.
    Even disregarding Drtg:

    Boozer:
    PER at SF (33% of his minutes): 22.6
    PER at C (66% of his minutes): 23.5

    opposing PF PER: 20.2
    opposing C PER: 10.6

    differential at SF: +2.4
    differential at C: +12.9


    Rose
    PER at PG: 23.2
    Opposing PG PER: 14.1
    Differential: +9.1


    Brewer
    PER at SG: 14.5
    Opposing SG PER: 12.5
    Differential: +2.0


    Deng
    PER at SF (80% of his minutes): 13.6
    PER at PF: (20% of his minutes): 19.6

    Opposing SF PER: 11.7
    Opposing PF PER: 11.8

    Differential at SF: +1.9
    Differential at PF: +7.8


    Noah
    PER at C: 20.8
    Opposing C PER: 20.2
    Differential: +0.6


    Thomas
    PER at PF (70% of his minutes): 11.2
    PER at C (30% of his minutes): 9.5

    Opposing PF PER: 8.4
    Opposing C PER: 15.2

    Differential at PF: +2.8
    Differential at C: -5.7






    Bogans' differential at SG is -7.9, however.







    Also, if you use Drtg with other stuff, and not just by itself, it's OK for individuals....better than just relying on steals and blocks, anyway.

  4. #154
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    Wow deng is more productive at pf. No wonder thibs has a hard on for deng

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by D1RoseJM View Post
    Wow deng is more productive at pf. No wonder thibs has a hard on for deng
    And Boozer at Center. No wonder the small lineup works so well, particularly because it's utilized well by Thibs.

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iggz53 View Post
    Yeah, Drtg is a very good measure of team defense.

    If Thibs doesn't win Coach of the Year, it would be an utter failure on the part of the voters. No one has even come close to getting the most out of his team than Thibs (except maybe Pop). I mean, look at our players defensively. Other than Deng, Brewer, sometimes Taj, and Kurt (man-to-man) we don't have any great defenders. The fact that we have the best defense in the NBA is due completely to Thibodeau. He completely transformed the team from last year.
    totally agree

    Quote Originally Posted by weneedpitching View Post
    Also, if you use Drtg with other stuff, and not just by itself, it's OK for individuals....better than just relying on steals and blocks, anyway.
    Yeah, but the other stuff is all subjective really. Rodman, great defender, had little block and steal totals. Defense really comes down to just watching the game. Which, is good so then it's not completely depended on stats. It's nice to actually have to watch the game to notice certain things too ya know. (goes for offense too)

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by shammyguy3 View Post
    Yeah, but the other stuff is all subjective really. Rodman, great defender, had little block and steal totals. Defense really comes down to just watching the game. Which, is good so then it's not completely depended on stats. It's nice to actually have to watch the game to notice certain things too ya know. (goes for offense too)
    Yeah, individually I don't trust any stat out there for defense. Literally none. There are just too many variables to consider when assessing this because defense relies so heavily on others helping out and the system you play for.

  8. #158
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    Also, using PER for and PER against isn't entirely fair. Because PER doesn't take into account for any real defensive value but it does account for things like blocks and steals, many of which are probably not actually Thomas being blocked or stolen from. And somebody like, say, Thomas, could allow GREAT PER's against him, but if he's doing it while keeping his guy to a very low shooting percentage and not putting him at the line often, then he may well allow a high PER, but it's very possible it's an inefficient PER.

    And then. He made them pancakes.

  9. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iggz53 View Post
    Yeah, individually I don't trust any stat out there for defense. Literally none. There are just too many variables to consider when assessing this because defense relies so heavily on others helping out and the system you play for.
    Yea, see, that's the other stuff I'm talking about. I understand where you are coming from, and I agree, there are many subjective components to both offense and defense, and you pick up a lot by simply watching a team over time. But, completely disregarding all defensive statistics just doesn't seem logical to me.

    Some of them are actually very well thought-out (conceptually) and at least make a nice attempt to incorporate contested shots, charges, and other things beyond steals and blocks. Used in conjunction with things like STL%, BLK%, and counterpart production; and taking into consideration style of play, how the player is used, and the system the player plays in and the strength of his team's defense, something like Drtg can really help you get some sense of how a guy plays on the defensive end.

    Are there flaws with defensive stats...absolutely, but the same goes for all stats. PPG sucks, PER sucks, WS/48 min sucks, APG sucks....all of these things can be manipulated.

    Does anyone really believe Kevin Love is as good as Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade? Hell no, but because of the weak-*** team he plays on and their crappy system, that's where Win shares and PER puts him.

    Is Rajon Rondo really the best passer in the league? Probably not, but he's averaging 12.5 APG, to lead the league.

    Is Carmelo Anthony a top 10 player in the league? Hell no, but PPG says he is.

    Is Steve Nash still better than Derrick Rose and Deron Williams? No way, but PER says he is.

    Is Russell Westbrook the 5th best player in the entire NBA? Is he better than Kevin Durant? Nope, but that's where APER puts him.

    The point is, all stats suck by themselves, or out of context.

    You ALWAYS also need to watch the games, whether you are talking about offense or defense. But, just like with offensive stats, defensive stats can supplement what you see, make you question what you see, and make you look at things a little differently when you do watch.

    So, I guess, the point of this rant is, completely ignore defensive statistics if you want, but I just don't think it's all that smart or beneficial.

  10. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    Also, using PER for and PER against isn't entirely fair. Because PER doesn't take into account for any real defensive value but it does account for things like blocks and steals, many of which are probably not actually Thomas being blocked or stolen from. And somebody like, say, Thomas, could allow GREAT PER's against him, but if he's doing it while keeping his guy to a very low shooting percentage and not putting him at the line often, then he may well allow a high PER, but it's very possible it's an inefficient PER.
    Sorry, but this makes no sense. PER is Player Efficiency Rating. It is very much dependent on FG%, 3PFG%, FT% (TS%, basically). So, really it's not possible to have an inefficient high PER. If Thomas' guy is shooting a low percentage, his PER goes down. If Thomas' guy is not getting to the line, his PER will likely be low.

    Actually, this is exactly what the numbers I posted above show. Thomas' is holding opposing PF's to a 8.4 PER. A league average player is a 15.0 PER player. Thomas is basically holding opposing PFs to the production of half of a league average PF, which actually jives with what I see from Thomas on the floor. He's a defensive stud. These numbers just show that on paper.

    PER is not Points Per Game.
    Last edited by weneedpitching; 02-04-2011 at 09:50 PM.

  11. #161
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    While all the stats you mentioned have flaws, some HUGE ones, Iggz stated, basically, that he feels all defensive stats are so flawed that they are worthless.

    Ergo, paying any attention to them would be stupid on his part.

    And then. He made them pancakes.

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by weneedpitching View Post
    Sorry, but this makes no sense. PER is Player Efficiency Rating. It is very much dependent on FG%, 3PFG%, FT% (TS%, basically). So, really it's not possible to have an inefficient high PER. If Thomas' guy is shooting a low percentage, his PER goes down. If Thomas' guy is not getting to the line, his PER will likely be low.

    PER is not Points Per Game.
    No, PER doesn't care how efficient someone is. For example, last year, PER really doesn't care how efficient someone is. As long as they score a lot of points, they will have a very high PER. If you score 100 points on 100 shots, your PER will be incredibly high. If you score 30 shots and get 30 points, you'll still have a damn nice looking PER.

    PER may have efficiency in its name, but it doesn't actually care about efficiency.

    And then. He made them pancakes.

  13. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    No, PER doesn't care how efficient someone is. For example, last year, PER really doesn't care how efficient someone is. As long as they score a lot of points, they will have a very high PER. If you score 100 points on 100 shots, your PER will be incredibly high. If you score 30 shots and get 30 points, you'll still have a damn nice looking PER.

    PER may have efficiency in its name, but it doesn't actually care about efficiency.
    Seriously?

    You are completely wrong here.

    Would you like an example...Monta Ellis

    He scored 25.5 PPG last year, good for 6th in the entire NBA.

    Despite this, his PER was an awful 16.7, which is 78th in the NBA. So no, scoring a lot does not automatically mean a high PER

    This year, he is again 6th in the NBA in PPG at 25.1, but he's doing it a little more efficiently. But still, his PER is only 19.0, which is 41st in the NBA.

    Same with Carmelo Anthony....9th in the NBA in PPG, but 33rd in the NBA in PER.

    The ****ing formula for PER is:

    (1 / MP) *
    [ 3P
    + (2/3) * AST
    + (2 - factor * (team_AST / team_FG)) * FG

    + (FT *0.5 * (1 + (1 - (team_AST / team_FG)) + (2/3) * (team_AST / team_FG)))
    - VOP * TOV
    - VOP * DRB% * (FGA - FG)
    - VOP * 0.44 * (0.44 + (0.56 * DRB%)) * (FTA - FT)
    + VOP * (1 - DRB%) * (TRB - ORB)
    + VOP * DRB% * ORB
    + VOP * STL
    + VOP * DRB% * BLK
    - PF * ((lg_FT / lg_PF) - 0.44 * (lg_FTA / lg_PF) * VOP) ]

    where:
    factor = (2 / 3) - (0.5 * (lg_AST / lg_FG)) / (2 * (lg_FG / lg_FT))
    VOP = lg_PTS / (lg_FGA - lg_ORB + lg_TOV + 0.44 * lg_FTA)
    DRB% = (lg_TRB - lg_ORB) / lg_TRB

    Look, the bold stuff is factoring in 3PFG, 2PFGs and FTs.

    You can keep denying it, but you are totally wrong, Player Efficiency Rating is VERY dependent on efficiency.

  14. #164
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    I already know the PER formula. But it still doesn't take into account efficiency very well. It also uses team factors. Which hurts it considerably. I'm very aware what the PER formula is though, I have the thing saved in a spreadsheet.

    And then. He made them pancakes.

  15. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by weneedpitching View Post
    Yea, see, that's the other stuff I'm talking about. I understand where you are coming from, and I agree, there are many subjective components to both offense and defense, and you pick up a lot by simply watching a team over time. But, completely disregarding all defensive statistics just doesn't seem logical to me.

    Some of them are actually very well thought-out (conceptually) and at least make a nice attempt to incorporate contested shots, charges, and other things beyond steals and blocks. Used in conjunction with things like STL%, BLK%, and counterpart production; and taking into consideration style of play, how the player is used, and the system the player plays in and the strength of his team's defense, something like Drtg can really help you get some sense of how a guy plays on the defensive end.

    Are there flaws with defensive stats...absolutely, but the same goes for all stats. PPG sucks, PER sucks, WS/48 min sucks, APG sucks....all of these things can be manipulated.

    Does anyone really believe Kevin Love is as good as Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade? Hell no, but because of the weak-*** team he plays on and their crappy system, that's where Win shares and PER puts him.

    Is Rajon Rondo really the best passer in the league? Probably not, but he's averaging 12.5 APG, to lead the league.

    Is Carmelo Anthony a top 10 player in the league? Hell no, but PPG says he is.

    Is Steve Nash still better than Derrick Rose and Deron Williams? No way, but PER says he is.

    Is Russell Westbrook the 5th best player in the entire NBA? Is he better than Kevin Durant? Nope, but that's where APER puts him.

    The point is, all stats suck by themselves, or out of context.

    You ALWAYS also need to watch the games, whether you are talking about offense or defense. But, just like with offensive stats, defensive stats can supplement what you see, make you question what you see, and make you look at things a little differently when you do watch.

    So, I guess, the point of this rant is, completely ignore defensive statistics if you want, but I just don't think it's all that smart or beneficial.
    The things you pointed out above are beside what I'm talking about. PPG tells you how exactly that, how many points a player scores. TS% tells you his efficiency in doing so. AST% tells you how good of a passer/what kind of game the player is/has. I take every stat EXACTLY for what it's for.

    But to be honest, PER and APER to me are both fantasy stats because they both just measure up a given player's stats (yes, including TS% but you still get my point). Last year, Josh Smith had a 21 PER. Now compare that to Lamar Odom, who had a 16 PER. It's pretty obvious to me which of them is the better player despite PER. This is why I never take any metrics seriously that combine stats used to measure completely different things.

    As for defensive stats, I literally have never seen any legitimate stat that actually gives the credit players deserve on defense. Things like Drtg tell you more than anything how good of a defensive team you are playing on, and how many statistically significant defensive plays you contribute to that defense. Things like Opponents PER do the same thing because again, defense is a team game. Players on good defensive teams will always have higher stats than those on bad defensive teams. Again, not a good individual measure at all.

    So I'll sign off with this. I obviously know no stat tells you everything. Just like I mentioned above, different offensive stats tell you completely different things and it is up to you or anyone else to assess them as such, taking in all the information provided. I don't need someone to tell me how good of a player someone is with one number because I know that's ********. It doesn't take into account someone's role on a team or defense, among many other things. Ryan Anderson is not a Top 20 player. And in exactly the same way, there is nothing out there that I have ever seen that properly measures defense, as I have used Shane Battier and Bruce Bowen as examples.

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