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Thread: NBA Moneyball

  1. #1
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    NBA Moneyball

    Heres the deal,

    This Noah garbage about 5 years for 70 million bucks has really got me thinking about the moneyball concept in basketball. For instance, there are guys on the market right now (ie Erick Dampier) that can produce numbers in the same ballpark as Noah for literally a tenth of the price. Why is it that more GMs and owners don't take this approach?

    I see so many crazy contracts being handed out to average talent...and it always seems to bite the team in the behind.

    I don't really know what I was looking for in this thread...except to ask...what contracts do you find rediculous and why do you suppose GMs keep making such dumb deals?

  2. #2
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    In terms of being ridiculous contracts on the least bang for the buck side:

    Elton Brand
    DeSagana Diop
    Matt Carroll
    Andres Nocioni
    Travis Outlaw
    James Posey
    Tyrus Thomas
    Rashard Lewis
    Hedo Turkoglu
    Daniel Gibson
    Emeka Okafor
    Corey Maggette
    Charlie Villanueva
    Ben Gordon
    Joe Johnson
    Rudy Gay
    Marvin Williams
    Luol Deng

    I didn't look through all of these but this is the list I came up with.

    There always seems to be GM's willing to overpay to get players. Sometimes they pay massive amounts when there's no real competition for their services.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by daleja424 View Post
    Heres the deal,

    This Noah garbage about 5 years for 70 million bucks has really got me thinking about the moneyball concept in basketball. For instance, there are guys on the market right now (ie Erick Dampier) that can produce numbers in the same ballpark as Noah for literally a tenth of the price. Why is it that more GMs and owners don't take this approach?

    I see so many crazy contracts being handed out to average talent...and it always seems to bite the team in the behind.

    I don't really know what I was looking for in this thread...except to ask...what contracts do you find rediculous and why do you suppose GMs keep making such dumb deals?
    Noah and Dampier are completely different players.

    Noah has a more complete game, he's a better passer, has more post moves, more speed and quickness, better transition game, and is a better rebounder.

    Dampier is a much better defender but cannot and has not played starter's minutes in years.

    Also, Dampier would be making $1,352,181 if he signs for the minimum vs Noah @ $3,128,536. I'm guessing you are talking about Noah's upcoming salary in 2011-12 which we really don't know about. By then Dampier will be 36 years old and Noah will have a year under one of the better defensive coaches in the league.


    The moneyball concept is going to be different in the NBA because the effect a single player has is magnified.

    I do think Noah is asking for an obnoxious amount.
    Quote Originally Posted by effen5 View Post
    2 years ago, this team was worth 650 million dollars. Derrick Rose has played ten games since and now this team is worth a billion dollars. Clearly, it's Tom Thibodeu.

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    Quote Originally Posted by arkanian215 View Post
    In terms of being ridiculous contracts on the least bang for the buck side:

    Elton Brand
    DeSagana Diop
    Matt Carroll
    Andres Nocioni
    Travis Outlaw
    James Posey
    Tyrus Thomas
    Rashard Lewis
    Hedo Turkoglu
    Daniel Gibson
    Emeka Okafor
    Corey Maggette
    Charlie Villanueva
    Ben Gordon
    Joe Johnson
    Rudy Gay
    Marvin Williams
    Luol Deng

    I didn't look through all of these but this is the list I came up with.

    There always seems to be GM's willing to overpay to get players. Sometimes they pay massive amounts when there's no real competition for their services.
    I didn't have a problem with Tyrus Thomas' contract.


    Guys like Deng and Iguodala are interesting to discuss. Both (and those similar) are very good players but aren't capable of carrying a team. So are they really worth 1/5th of you cap space if they can be good #2's and great #3 options?
    Quote Originally Posted by effen5 View Post
    2 years ago, this team was worth 650 million dollars. Derrick Rose has played ten games since and now this team is worth a billion dollars. Clearly, it's Tom Thibodeu.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiSox219 View Post
    Noah and Dampier are completely different players.

    Noah has a more complete game, he's a better passer, has more post moves, more speed and quickness, better transition game, and is a better rebounder.

    Dampier is a much better defender but cannot and has not played starter's minutes in years.

    Also, Dampier would be making $1,352,181 if he signs for the minimum vs Noah @ $3,128,536. I'm guessing you are talking about Noah's upcoming salary in 2011-12 which we really don't know about. By then Dampier will be 36 years old and Noah will have a year under one of the better defensive coaches in the league.


    The moneyball concept is going to be different in the NBA because the effect a single player has is magnified.

    I do think Noah is asking for an obnoxious amount.
    what chisox said

    but i'll add,contract negotiations dont upset and try the dickens to avoid getting wrapped up in any rumor/talk about them as the only part of it that matters is the final numbers.only then do i form my opinion...but even at that point i still dont get upset,i'm not the owner so meh.

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    Centers 8/10 times get overpaid just for the fact there's not a lot of talent in that position so GM's,owner's overpay just to wrap that talent up. Even if it's average and yeah i also agree Noah is asking for way to much

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    Quote Originally Posted by daleja424 View Post
    Heres the deal,

    This Noah garbage about 5 years for 70 million bucks has really got me thinking about the moneyball concept in basketball. For instance, there are guys on the market right now (ie Erick Dampier) that can produce numbers in the same ballpark as Noah for literally a tenth of the price. Why is it that more GMs and owners don't take this approach?

    I see so many crazy contracts being handed out to average talent...and it always seems to bite the team in the behind.

    I don't really know what I was looking for in this thread...except to ask...what contracts do you find rediculous and why do you suppose GMs keep making such dumb deals?
    This is probably the weakest run of NBA centers in history so if you have one who is young and can contribute you lock him up long-term. Especially if you are already over the cap and using bird rights. However, that contract (Noah's) is definately high when you factor in what percent of the total cap it would be. Very interesting topic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KnicksorBust View Post
    This is probably the weakest run of NBA centers in history so if you have one who is young and can contribute you lock him up long-term. Especially if you are already over the cap and using bird rights. However, that contract (Noah's) is definately high when you factor in what percent of the total cap it would be. Very interesting topic.
    Sure there is a shortage of quality centers in the NBa but a guy like Noah is just not worth more than 10mil a year. Especially if you don't know how the new CBA will shape up, it could cripple your organisation for years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KnicksorBust View Post
    This is probably the weakest run of NBA centers in history so if you have one who is young and can contribute you lock him up long-term. Especially if you are already over the cap and using bird rights. However, that contract (Noah's) is definately high when you factor in what percent of the total cap it would be. Very interesting topic.
    Thats the point though... Noah is not anything special. Guys like Noah come along all the time. I don't see why you sign him to a near max contract when you can bring in a vet on the min that can produce similarly.

    Thats the way you get contract values under control...stop handing them out like candy for every joe shmo...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Patman View Post
    Sure there is a shortage of quality centers in the NBa but a guy like Noah is just not worth more than 10mil a year. Especially if you don't know how the new CBA will shape up, it could cripple your organisation for years.
    I wouldn't even pay him that much. 8 mill max IMO

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    Quote Originally Posted by daleja424 View Post
    Thats the point though... Noah is not anything special. Guys like Noah come along all the time. I don't see why you sign him to a near max contract when you can bring in a vet on the min that can produce similarly.

    Thats the way you get contract values under control...stop handing them out like candy for every joe shmo...
    I disagree that Dampier would produce similarly. The current Bulls team should be at least a 2nd round team. With Dampier, I can't say that. It's what should be called the Rashard Lewis Correlation. Overpaying someone is okay if it's going to sustain or contribute to elite nba status.

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    Well I do think paying Noah that much is a lot. Personally I would only give someone like him that much if we are a top 2-3 team favorite to win it all.
    "Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships."
    - Michael Jordan

    Thanks MJ-Bulls for the picture.

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