Advanced Stats Resources and Primers

[DenButsu]

Here are some resources where you can find the stats themselves as well as statistical analysis blogs, primers, essays, and books:


Websites:

Basketball-Reference

82games.com

Basketball Value

HoopData

Hardwood Paroxysm

Basketball Prospectus

APBRmetrics

NBAstuffer.com

PopcornMachine.net

Basketball Geek

Stats by Numbers

Team Rankings

Basketball-Analysis


twitter:

http://twitter.com/tomhaberstroh

http://twitter.com/Hoopdata

http://twitter.com/bball_ref

http://twitter.com/HPbasketball

http://twitter.com/basketballvalue

http://twitter.com/johnhollinger

http://twitter.com/dmorey


Books:

Basketball On Paper, by Dean Oliver


Primers, Glossaries, & Some Introductory Advanced Stats:

And here are a few good elementary primers on some of the main advanced metrics.


Click here for The Basketball Notebook Stats Primer for a good overview.


Two great glossary/dictionary type references can be found at the following links:
The BBR Blog-tionary
-and-
an Advanced Statistics Glossary at APBRmetrics


Here, from Ben Q Rock at the Orlando Pinstriped Post, are a few more detailed primers which introduce some specific stats and concepts:

Advanced Metrics Handbook, Vol. 1: Effective Field Goal Percentage
The formula:
(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA

Advanced Metrics Handbook, Vol. 2: True Shooting Percentage
The formula:
Points / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA))

Advanced Metrics Handbook, Vol. 3: Pace
The formula:
0.96 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TO - OReb


From another thread, here Chronz' explanation of why that ".44" number is in the TS% formula:

Let me word it differently, if 44% of each free throw cost a possession then 1 pair of free throws take .88 right. The other 12% come from either AND1's technicals, flagrants, clear-path fouls, or as the third part of a shooting foul from behind the three-point arc.

Mathematically speaking, you start with a FTA = 1/2 a possession or 0.5, then you deduct for those 12% aforementioned sequences, where 0.5 * 0.12 = 0.06 and 0.5 - 0.06 = 0.44

And also from another thread, here's patsSOXknicks' breakdown of the difference between assist % and assist ratio:

Basketball-reference has Ast% vs. what they have on ESPN and Hoopdata with Assist Ratio. These are different statistics and they do have different meanings.

From basketball-reference

AST%
Assist Percentage (available since the 1964-65 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * AST / (((MP / (Tm MP / 5)) * Tm FG) - FG). Assist percentage is an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on on the floor.
From ESPN

AST: Assist Ratio - the percentage of a player's possessions that ends in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]
Both of these stats are better then assists per game as that completely ignores pace.

A look at the league leaders:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...0_leaders.html

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holli...%3dassistRatio

Pretty different. Why? Well upon closer look, the guys with really high Ast% have higher USG% too compared to the guys with just high Assist Ratios. Lebron is not even on the league leaders for Assist Ratio but he's 5th in Ast%- it's because he's 2nd in the NBA in usage rate. So he's going to Ast on a really high percentage of his teams FG because he's used more (and is obviously a good passer too) then say someone like Jason Kidd who doesn't have everything run through him all the time. So for the possessions that Jason Kidd is involved in, a very high % of them end in an assist but the % of the teams FG that he assisted won't be as high since his USG rate isn't as high and because Ast% is based on the minutes you're on the floor, not on the possessions in which you're involved in.

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If you know of any additional websites, twitterers, books, etc. which you think should be added to the list above, please post them in this thread.

[tredigs]

Might as well just get this one stickied now. Should be the major reference post for both vets and "noobs" to advanced stats alike. Plus, it's going to be nice to have a thread to quickly edit + add on to as newer sites surface. Beyond that, it was this post in the general NBA forum (along with the original lobbying) that got this going, so great work Den.

I've been a lot more busy lately, and will be for the next couple months; but I'm pretty glad to see this forum finally come to fruition. I'll try to help keep her churning as much as possible.

[Hawkeye15]

this needs to be stickied

[Saddler The Gr8]

Might as well just get this one stickied now. Should be the major reference post for both vets and "noobs" to advanced stats alike.

lol

thanks for the thread. this is some good **** and teaches u alot.

[lakers4sho]

I have a copy of Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper, and it is a really good read.

[Patman]

I have a copy of Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper, and it is a really good read.

Ordered it yesterday, but it will take at least 2 weeks until they can deliver it.
Nice thread i think it covers all the Sites that are relevant and has some good explanation.

[Wilson]

Thanks for posting all of this Den.

I've used basketball-reference and 82games a little bit in the past, I had no idea there was this much material available for advanced stats though. I'm hoping to become more knowledgeable in this area over the course of the season

[DenButsu]

For those who said this should be stickied: I humbly agree, and thank you.

For those who have read before or ordered or are thinking of ordering Dean Oliver's book: I just received it, but I have had friends from abroad come here in the past 3 days, and I haven't read it yet.

But I will. And, without having read it, just by skimming through it, it's easy to see that anyone who takes this stuff seriously would benefit a hell of a lot by reading it. But for now all I can do is tip my hat, and be thankful that it's my team he works for.

------------------------------------------

My first question in this thread, in seeking to define what some of the main stats mean:

Which is more important as a measure of shooting efficiency for small forwards, TS%, or eFG%?

[lakers4sho]

Well, eFG% and TS% measure two different things. eFG% is probably the stat that is much closer to the traditional FG%, because essentially it is still FGM/FGA, with 3PT given a little bit more weight.

Looking at the formula, TS%, on the other hand, seems to measure points scored relative to the shooting possessions used by the player. The formula can be simplified as Points / 2 * (possessions used).

I don't think one measure is "better" than the other. But, with both things considered, I think TS% is more important, especially for wings, because it shows you if a player can squeeze in as many points in the least number of shooting possessions possible, which I think is the definition of efficiency.

However, I think it can be improved by adding TOs in the denominator of the TS% formula. In my opinion, turnovers hurt the offensive efficiency of a player because with a turnover he can't even get a shot off.

[abe_froman]

However, I think it can be improved by adding TOs in the denominator of the TS% formula. In my opinion, turnovers hurt the offensive efficiency of a player because with a turnover he can't even get a shot off.

that is actually a pretty good point,one i hsavent even thought of until just now.

[Basketash]

Awesome!

[baller101200]

Thanks Den.

[baller101200]

Well, eFG% and TS% measure two different things. eFG% is probably the stat that is much closer to the traditional FG%, because essentially it is still FGM/FGA, with 3PT given a little bit more weight.

Looking at the formula, TS%, on the other hand, seems to measure points scored relative to the shooting possessions used by the player. The formula can be simplified as Points / 2 * (possessions used).

I don't think one measure is "better" than the other. But, with both things considered, I think TS% is more important, especially for wings, because it shows you if a player can squeeze in as many points in the least number of shooting possessions possible, which I think is the definition of efficiency.

However, I think it can be improved by adding TOs in the denominator of the TS% formula. In my opinion, turnovers hurt the offensive efficiency of a player because with a turnover he can't even get a shot off.

Pretty much summed it up for me right here. I prefer ts% as it seems to be an indicator of a player's overall efficiency. The fact that it pretty much integrates all aspects of a players scoring arsenal makes it a better stat to go by for me.

I like you're idea about adding TO's as well. However, ts% is simply a statistic based on shooting percentages alone (makes and misses). I think your idea could just be an entirely new stat in itself.

[lakers4sho]

I agree that TS concerns mostly with "shooting". But if we're talking about "offensive efficiency", and if TS% is to be considered an "offensive efficiency" stat, I think TOs should be somehow incorporated within the formula.

Because like I said, turnovers should hurt a player's efficiency, or at least I think it should.

[baller101200]

I agree that TS concerns mostly with "shooting". But if we're talking about "offensive efficiency", and if TS% is to be considered an "offensive efficiency" stat, I think TOs should be somehow incorporated within the formula.

Because like I said, turnovers should hurt a player's efficiency, or at least I think it should.

Yeah, I agree with this completely. My only concern is that ts% is strictly a statistic based off of shooting efficiency, and I think adding TO's would digress from that.

Either way, I think a statistic using your idea would be a valuable one.