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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Shakedown Street, Japan

    Advanced Stats Resources and Primers

    Here are some resources where you can find the stats themselves as well as statistical analysis blogs, primers, essays, and books:



    Basketball Value


    Hardwood Paroxysm

    Basketball Prospectus


    Basketball Geek

    Stats by Numbers

    Team Rankings




    Basketball On Paper, by Dean Oliver

    Primers, Glossaries, & Some Introductory Advanced Stats:

    And here are a few good elementary primers on some of the main advanced metrics.

    Click here for The Basketball Notebook Stats Primer for a good overview.

    Two great glossary/dictionary type references can be found at the following links:
    The BBR Blog-tionary
    an Advanced Statistics Glossary at APBRmetrics

    Here, from Ben Q Rock at the Orlando Pinstriped Post, are a few more detailed primers which introduce some specific stats and concepts:

    Advanced Metrics Handbook, Vol. 1: Effective Field Goal Percentage
    The formula:
    (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA

    Advanced Metrics Handbook, Vol. 2: True Shooting Percentage
    The formula:
    Points / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA))

    Advanced Metrics Handbook, Vol. 3: Pace
    The formula:
    0.96 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TO - OReb

    From another thread, here Chronz' explanation of why that ".44" number is in the TS% formula:
    Quote Originally Posted by Chronz
    Let me word it differently, if 44% of each free throw cost a possession then 1 pair of free throws take .88 right. The other 12% come from either AND1's technicals, flagrants, clear-path fouls, or as the third part of a shooting foul from behind the three-point arc.

    Mathematically speaking, you start with a FTA = 1/2 a possession or 0.5, then you deduct for those 12% aforementioned sequences, where 0.5 * 0.12 = 0.06 and 0.5 - 0.06 = 0.44

    And also from another thread, here's patsSOXknicks' breakdown of the difference between assist % and assist ratio:
    Quote Originally Posted by patsSOXknicks View Post
    Basketball-reference has Ast% vs. what they have on ESPN and Hoopdata with Assist Ratio. These are different statistics and they do have different meanings.

    From basketball-reference

    Assist Percentage (available since the 1964-65 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * AST / (((MP / (Tm MP / 5)) * Tm FG) - FG). Assist percentage is an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on on the floor.
    From ESPN
    AST: Assist Ratio - the percentage of a player's possessions that ends in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]
    Both of these stats are better then assists per game as that completely ignores pace.
    A look at the league leaders:

    Pretty different. Why? Well upon closer look, the guys with really high Ast% have higher USG% too compared to the guys with just high Assist Ratios. Lebron is not even on the league leaders for Assist Ratio but he's 5th in Ast%- it's because he's 2nd in the NBA in usage rate. So he's going to Ast on a really high percentage of his teams FG because he's used more (and is obviously a good passer too) then say someone like Jason Kidd who doesn't have everything run through him all the time. So for the possessions that Jason Kidd is involved in, a very high % of them end in an assist but the % of the teams FG that he assisted won't be as high since his USG rate isn't as high and because Ast% is based on the minutes you're on the floor, not on the possessions in which you're involved in.

    If you know of any additional websites, twitterers, books, etc. which you think should be added to the list above, please post them in this thread.
    Last edited by DenButsu; 09-27-2010 at 09:42 AM.

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