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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crucis View Post
    Bags, I'm not that much of an advanced stats guy, though I don't diss them as some do. Your explanation of ERA+ makes sense. I realized that ERA+ was on a scale where higher was better. Still, I guess that I still don't like it because it doesn't sync up to the actual game. It is a comparison to "average"... but what IS the average number of runs per 9 innings? I guess that if I wanted to look at a non-defense affected ERA stat, I'd want it to be on the same R/9 scale as raw ERA, since that number means more to me.
    Well if you want that rate stat then you would want a FIP, or a tRA like statistic.

    People make jokes about ERA a lot, but the truth is, the logic behind it is sound. You want to figure out how many runs a pitcher would allow per 9 innings. Perfectly reasonable. But to adjust for defense, ballpark, league and simple random variation you use a statistic that adjusts for those things.

    ERA+ attempts to adjust for ballpark and league, but it's a straight up adjustment and does simply not account for all factors and the previously mentioned factors correctly. It has it's uses, but is still limited (simply because ERA is limited itself).

  2. #47
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    this year bucholz easily but lester has also been pretty damn good

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by yankeefan54 View Post
    this year bucholz easily but lester has also been pretty damn good
    As of today Lester has been better - a lot better

    Stat - Lester - Buchholz (Red is much worse then the other guy, magenta is not as good)

    Code:
    WAR     5.4      3.1
    QS%    62%       64%
    IP      190    152.2
    BA     .221     .231
    K's     208     104
    BB/9    3.36    3.54
    WHIP    1.174   1.238
    FIP    3.00     3.67
    xFIP   3.19     4.25
    tERA   3.10     3.95
    Not only does Lester beat Buchholz in these counting and rate stats - in some cases by a good deal, but the big one is the 37.1 extra innings (19.7% more) Buchholz is behind (plus the rest he got, while Lester was going out every fifth game hanging it out there).

    Cream rises to the top. Buchholz has had a fine year, much better then I expected, but he's some way from being the ace of the Sox as some fans have somehow convinced themselves. The fact that Lester was also in the top 5-7 SP's in the AL the prior two years while Buchholz was still growing up also seals Lester as team ace.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 09-14-2010 at 11:34 AM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  4. #49
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    lester

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantes4Life View Post
    Well if you want that rate stat then you would want a FIP, or a tRA like statistic.

    People make jokes about ERA a lot, but the truth is, the logic behind it is sound. You want to figure out how many runs a pitcher would allow per 9 innings. Perfectly reasonable. But to adjust for defense, ballpark, league and simple random variation you use a statistic that adjusts for those things.

    ERA+ attempts to adjust for ballpark and league, but it's a straight up adjustment and does simply not account for all factors and the previously mentioned factors correctly. It has it's uses, but is still limited (simply because ERA is limited itself).
    But ERA+ is easier to explain then FIP or xFIP for the non initiated. I like tERA better, but I look at them all. Even DERA and DIPS when I can find them.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

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