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  1. #46
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    California
    Posts
    69,978
    Quote Originally Posted by Crucis View Post
    Bags, I'm not that much of an advanced stats guy, though I don't diss them as some do. Your explanation of ERA+ makes sense. I realized that ERA+ was on a scale where higher was better. Still, I guess that I still don't like it because it doesn't sync up to the actual game. It is a comparison to "average"... but what IS the average number of runs per 9 innings? I guess that if I wanted to look at a non-defense affected ERA stat, I'd want it to be on the same R/9 scale as raw ERA, since that number means more to me.
    Well if you want that rate stat then you would want a FIP, or a tRA like statistic.

    People make jokes about ERA a lot, but the truth is, the logic behind it is sound. You want to figure out how many runs a pitcher would allow per 9 innings. Perfectly reasonable. But to adjust for defense, ballpark, league and simple random variation you use a statistic that adjusts for those things.

    ERA+ attempts to adjust for ballpark and league, but it's a straight up adjustment and does simply not account for all factors and the previously mentioned factors correctly. It has it's uses, but is still limited (simply because ERA is limited itself).

  2. #47
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    connecticut
    Posts
    24,969
    this year bucholz easily but lester has also been pretty damn good

  3. #48
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    42,648
    Quote Originally Posted by yankeefan54 View Post
    this year bucholz easily but lester has also been pretty damn good
    As of today Lester has been better - a lot better

    Stat - Lester - Buchholz (Red is much worse then the other guy, magenta is not as good)

    Code:
    WAR     5.4      3.1
    QS%    62%       64%
    IP      190    152.2
    BA     .221     .231
    K's     208     104
    BB/9    3.36    3.54
    WHIP    1.174   1.238
    FIP    3.00     3.67
    xFIP   3.19     4.25
    tERA   3.10     3.95
    Not only does Lester beat Buchholz in these counting and rate stats - in some cases by a good deal, but the big one is the 37.1 extra innings (19.7% more) Buchholz is behind (plus the rest he got, while Lester was going out every fifth game hanging it out there).

    Cream rises to the top. Buchholz has had a fine year, much better then I expected, but he's some way from being the ace of the Sox as some fans have somehow convinced themselves. The fact that Lester was also in the top 5-7 SP's in the AL the prior two years while Buchholz was still growing up also seals Lester as team ace.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 09-14-2010 at 11:34 AM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  4. #49
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    200
    lester

  5. #50
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    42,648
    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantes4Life View Post
    Well if you want that rate stat then you would want a FIP, or a tRA like statistic.

    People make jokes about ERA a lot, but the truth is, the logic behind it is sound. You want to figure out how many runs a pitcher would allow per 9 innings. Perfectly reasonable. But to adjust for defense, ballpark, league and simple random variation you use a statistic that adjusts for those things.

    ERA+ attempts to adjust for ballpark and league, but it's a straight up adjustment and does simply not account for all factors and the previously mentioned factors correctly. It has it's uses, but is still limited (simply because ERA is limited itself).
    But ERA+ is easier to explain then FIP or xFIP for the non initiated. I like tERA better, but I look at them all. Even DERA and DIPS when I can find them.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

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