Honestly, who has been the best pitcher for Boston, Lester or Bucholz?

[baseballguru3]

Whether you like it or not, ERA in this situation is the most valid stat someone can throw out there with innings pitched the next one because they both play for the same defense behind them, both play the same teams, etc....there is no context between the two since both pitch for the same team.

And when you factor in Lester has been lucky with his runners left on while exiting and Buchholz has been a little unlucky, however still has a superior ERA.....I just don't understand how Lester is "better" this year. At the very least, they've been equals.

[bagwell368]

I'm sorry reality is the only measure here. If we want to play that game, give Lester back his games lost to fighting C.

I'm fairly willing to agree that they are generally equally effective this year, but, not when a newbie tries to force that opinion out of me. No way. Then it's facts and figures and 86.6% higher WAR for Lester and K/BB rates, and the quality of the opponents, etc.

Not so fast.

After CB's last performance before his vacation, he was 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA

After July 3rd outing Lester was 10-3 with a 2.76 ERA. He didn't get any break, and 3 of his next 4 starts were meh.

If you are going to claim Buchholz should get those extra innings "given" to him, then I'm going to claim his ERA would be higher because he wouldn't have gotten his break.

[Gigantes4Life]

Not so fast.

After CB's last performance before his vacation, he was 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA

After July 3rd outing Lester was 10-3 with a 2.76 ERA. He didn't get any break, and 3 of his next 4 starts were meh.

If you are going to claim Buchholz should get those extra innings "given" to him, then I'm going to claim his ERA would be higher because he wouldn't have gotten his break.

Why do you bother?

[bagwell368]

Whether you like it or not, ERA in this situation is the most valid stat someone can throw out there with innings pitched the next one because they both play for the same defense behind them, both play the same teams, etc....there is no context between the two since both pitch for the same team.

And when you factor in Lester has been lucky with his runners left on while exiting and Buchholz has been a little unlucky, however still has a superior ERA.....I just don't understand how Lester is "better" this year. At the very least, they've been equals.

Given all the injuries, you claim that they played in front of the same defenders? Phreeehaa...

I like ERA, and wager I know its variants such as dERA, tRA, xFIP better then you do, in fact let's leave ERA for a moment.

#1. To take your logic to an absurd degree a guy that pitches a 10 IP shutout and never pitches again is the greatest pitcher of all time. Ridiculous? Surely, but by considering ERA alone w/o innings pitched you can no longer be sure of what you are looking at, or talking about. That's why stats like PRAA and WAR exist.

Lester: RAR: 46
CBuch: RAR: 40

#2. BA/OBP/SLG

Lester: .217/.291/.323
CBuch: .224/.327/.370

Whoa, Lester crunches CB.

#3. ERAish

Lester: tERA: 3.06 FIP: 3.02 xFIP: 3.25
CBuch: tERA: 3.83 FIP: 3.65 xFIP: 4.22

Mother of god...

#4. Value

Lester: WARP 5.7 WAR: 4.6 WAR $: $18.4M
CBuch: WARP 5.2 WAR: 2.8 WAR $: $11.1M

Wow, what a walk over for Lester..... biff! pow! boooom!

All Buchholz has is raw ERA and ERA+ - which to SABR guys are of much less interest and trust then tERA and xFIP or RAR or BA/OBP/SLG. Let me know if you have any factual comebacks.

[bagwell368]

Why do you bother?

Because the past few days I can't walk more then about 40 feet a day, so to amuse myself I pick the wings off of flies (not you Crucis).

[baseballguru3]

See, you're using these advanced stats that PREDICT what will happen in the future like FIP & XFIP....and WAR that is so deviant that baseball references have buchholz in the 4's I believe but fan grapsh have him in the 2's...... I don't care aboout all those advanced stats if both pitchers play for the same team, behind the same defense in the same parks....

By the way, are you saying they haven't played in front of the same defense? Because I'm pretty sure they have, for the most part....It's not like one has Papi out in the field and the other has/had Youk or Vic in his start.

Like i said, ERA and innings pitched is all we need here because there isn't any context between the two that needs to be sorted out since all their variables are the same (ball park, defense, teams faced, etc) and when you come to a conclusion, if you take Lester it's because you value 28 more innings pitched and believe that not only cancels out, but trumps the ERA difference of about 0.5 runs per 9 innings that Buchholz holds over him this year.

And if that's the case, then you must put CC Sabathia on or above Lesters level for this year only because he has 20 more innings pitched and Lester only has a 0.3 edge in ERA...... and you must be of the opinion that Felix Hernendez is the Cy Young award winner since he has 20 more innings pitched than your most talked about Cy Young Candidates (Lester, Price, Lee) all while having a better ERA to boot and virutally tied with any of the three in ERA+

Just saying.

[bagwell368]

See, you're using these advanced stats ...and WAR that is so deviant that baseball references have buchholz in the 4's I believe but fan grapsh have him in the 2's...... I don't care aboout all those advanced stats if both pitchers play for the same team, behind the same defense in the same parks....

Well... as I pointed out already baseball-reference has CB trailing JL by a notable amount. BTW, FanGraphs group of SABR stats seem to be more respected among the cognescenti then BR - so there isn't much ground for your complaint - except the typical reason - you don't like it.

By the way, are you saying they haven't played in front of the same defense? Because I'm pretty sure they have, for the most part....It's not like one has Papi out in the field and the other has/had Youk or Vic in his start.

What nonsense. Unless you are going to count up the innings played by Hall, Nava, etc. behind each pitcher, then your claim "for the most part" is specious.

Like i said, ERA and innings pitched is all we need here because there isn't any context between the two that needs to be sorted out since all their variables are the same (ball park, defense, teams faced, etc) and when you come to a conclusion, if you take Lester it's because you value 28 more innings pitched and believe that not only cancels out, but trumps the ERA difference of about 0.5 runs per 9 innings that Buchholz holds over him this year.

Like you said? You don't know what the H/R split is, or who was in the line-ups for the other team, or who was the opposing pitcher - do you? Therefore I reject your soft peddling of the differences that they have faced this year. In fact a quick look at the teams they faced and the pitchers that they faced seems to lean on Lester's side as being more difficult.

And if that's the case, then you must put CC Sabathia on or above Lesters level for this year only because he has 20 more innings pitched and Lester only has a 0.3 edge in ERA......

I must do nothing of the sort. I must figure out the runs saved per inning and then multiply by the IP pitched. As for a NYY pitcher, why must I accept raw ERA for him? Does he also play under the same conditions as CB and JL? Bah.

Consider this real world example:

[INDENT]Pedro - a 154 ERA+ - the best ERA+ of any pitcher over 1200 IP.
Clemens - a 143 ERA+ near the top all time.

On a per inning basis, Pedro wins. How about value/utility to a team?

Pedro pitched 2827 IP in his career - more then Koufax, but only 57.5% as much as Clemens massive 4916 IP. Pedro's ERA+ advantage is only 7.1% over Clemens. So the basic question is - who is more valuable - a guy with almost double the innings and just off 7.1% in ERA+?

Let's try a batter as well:

J. D. Drew 162 game averages: SB: 10 BB: 91 2B: 30 3B: 5 HR: 26 R: 101 RBI: 85

How would you like to see that guy? Well I'd like to see Buchholz tied at the league lead for IP. So, Lester is more valuable this year because he's pitched more innings - very possibly against tougher teams/pitchers then Buchholz.

and you must be of the opinion that Felix Hernendez is the Cy Young award winner since he has 20 more innings pitched than your most talked about Cy Young Candidates (Lester, Price, Lee) all while having a better ERA to boot and virutally tied with any of the three in ERA+

Just saying.

You have just proven then raw ERA isn't to be trusted with this post - good catch. You also may have problems considering two key vectors of performance at the same time - just saying.

[Algmuskrats]

There really arent that many Left Handed strike out pitchers out there who throw such a powerful fast ball like Lester does. He has more meaning.

[bagwell368]

And? Signing him was also a better move than giving 100M to Joe Schmoe # 1. It doesn't detract from the fact that he's overpaid for career norms and still not even doing that crappy, so he's doubly underperforming his contract. I knew it was a horrible signing from the start and it will only get worse as he gets older.

You can make that assertion, but until the deal is done, there is no way to know. I see some evidence that Lackey is getting used to the AL East, and I also see that he's pretty adapted to throwing w/o his stuff that he had in '02. Beckett OTOH doesn't seem to be learning how to deal with not being a flame thrower as well. So if Lackey is better then Beckett the fromt the start of '10 on - then automatically you're wrong.

Personally as I made clear in the offseason, I wanted Holliday and a RP, and no Lackey and no Cameron.

[Crucis]

I haven't read this thread in a bit (mostly because it's not in the Red Sox forum where it really should be), but it is interesting.

Looking back at your post from 8-19 to the (sarcasm intended) so-called baseball guru, while I can see that there would be much greater similarity between two starters from the same team (as opposed to starters from different teams) in terms of defense and ballpark factors, "greater similarity" is NOT total equality. Guru, can you say that Lester and Buchholz pitched the exact same number of road and away games? Can you say that they had the exact same defense composition behind them in equivalent numbers of games? Can you say that each has faced the same opponents equal numbers of times? And so forth. Of course not. One night Buchholz may have Vmart catching, and the next night, Lester might have had Varitek catching. Or MacDonald in LF one night and Nava the next night. Or Buchholz may have two more games against the Orioles while Lester has two more games against the Rays. Similarity is not total sameness.



Now to be fair, I'm not entirely fond of some of the modern stats because they seem to lack an intuitive sense of meaning. That is, raw ERA represents the number of earned runs per 9 innings. What does that ERA+ number represent? I realize (IIRC) that ERA+ is supposed to be an ERA stat with defense issues removed, but what does the number mean? It's not particularly intuitive. Last I noticed, Buchholz' ERA+ was in the 190's. 190 what? At least when someone says that a pitcher has an ERA of 2.36, I instantly know that it means 2.36 runs per 9 innings. I guess that I'd lile an ERA+ like stat if it was measured on the same "runs per 9 innngs" scale as ERA. It would be more intuitive to me, and many other people, I suspect.

[Gunzito22]

what a bunch of females, Jesus Christ!!!!!

OK if the question is "Who has been more valuable to the Red Sox in 2010" or even "who has been the better pitcher for Boston since breaking in", Imma go with Lester for two reasons: IP and South-Pawedness. Lester has been healthier in 2010 and has spent more time in the show than Clay. No knock on the kid, he has the goods, but Lester has been here longer, so to speak....

Who will be better? who knows... who cares...

OK get back to ur catfighting, ladies

[Gigantes4Life]

I haven't read this thread in a bit (mostly because it's not in the Red Sox forum where it really should be), but it is interesting.

Looking back at your post from 8-19 to the (sarcasm intended) so-called baseball guru, while I can see that there would be much greater similarity between two starters from the same team (as opposed to starters from different teams) in terms of defense and ballpark factors, "greater similarity" is NOT total equality. Guru, can you say that Lester and Buchholz pitched the exact same number of road and away games? Can you say that they had the exact same defense composition behind them in equivalent numbers of games? Can you say that each has faced the same opponents equal numbers of times? And so forth. Of course not. One night Buchholz may have Vmart catching, and the next night, Lester might have had Varitek catching. Or MacDonald in LF one night and Nava the next night. Or Buchholz may have two more games against the Orioles while Lester has two more games against the Rays. Similarity is not total sameness.



Now to be fair, I'm not entirely fond of some of the modern stats because they seem to lack an intuitive sense of meaning. That is, raw ERA represents the number of earned runs per 9 innings. What does that ERA+ number represent? I realize (IIRC) that ERA+ is supposed to be an ERA stat with defense issues removed, but what does the number mean? It's not particularly intuitive. Last I noticed, Buchholz' ERA+ was in the 190's. 190 what? At least when someone says that a pitcher has an ERA of 2.36, I instantly know that it means 2.36 runs per 9 innings. I guess that I'd lile an ERA+ like stat if it was measured on the same "runs per 9 innngs" scale as ERA. It would be more intuitive to me, and many other people, I suspect.

Well ERA+ isn't very good and isn't exactly a very good advanced statistic.

[Crucis]

Well ERA+ isn't very good and isn't exactly a very good advanced statistic.

That may or may not be true, Gigantes. My problem is that it's not on the same intuitive "scale" as raw ERA, i.e. that of runs per 9 innings. Runs per 9 innings is a scale that makes intuitive sense. It syncs up well to the game. You can say that a pitcher with a 3.00 ERA who pitched a complete 9 inning game would on average give up 3 runs. It makes sense without any complex explanation.

Batting Average are also on scales that make sense. Hits per AB. If you have a 0.300 BA you know without any complex explanation that that means that the hitter should get 3 hits for every 10 at-bats.

For me, ERA+ fails in this regard as the number produced just doesn't see intuitively linked to the game.

[bagwell368]

Try this.

In a given league, in a given year, adjusted for ball park - a 100 ERA+ means dead on average. As in 100%.

That means that in 3 years if you have a pitcher with a 4.22, 4.56, 4.41 ERA, and they all happen to be 100+ seasons, then you lose the "errata/noise" of the 3 different ERA's.

It's means that Buchholz having a 190-something ERA+ means he is performing on average at 90-something percent over average.

If you look at the history of baseball since the Cy Young, consideration usually starts around 130, serious top 3 of the league is over 145, and 160 or above means maybe only 1 or 2 guys to talk about. Buchholz's big issue is lack of innings. If he throws a CG, at an average of 1.50 ERA the rest of the way, he might end with 20 wins, and a 200 ERA+, and even if he is 20-35 IP short, he may just win.

I love ERA+ as a metric because it is simple to understand, DERA as well since 100 ERA+ happens to be 4.50 DERA. FIP, tERA and other ERA type stats suffer from the ???? does it mean in context. You have to see the others in the league before you can get a full meaning for it. In fact WAR makes such meaning out of FIP, and includes the the innings worked as well, which a simple rate stat cannot do.

And yes, to get a real deep view of a guy I don't just use ERA+, it's not perfect.

[Crucis]

Bags, I'm not that much of an advanced stats guy, though I don't diss them as some do. Your explanation of ERA+ makes sense. I realized that ERA+ was on a scale where higher was better. Still, I guess that I still don't like it because it doesn't sync up to the actual game. It is a comparison to "average"... but what IS the average number of runs per 9 innings? I guess that if I wanted to look at a non-defense affected ERA stat, I'd want it to be on the same R/9 scale as raw ERA, since that number means more to me.