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  1. #91
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    I understand, but FG% does have its place. When judging a player's worth, you must look at numerous stats. Also, stats never tell the whole story.

    I like to think of FG% as a marker for how good and smart a shooter is. A good shooter could have a low percentage if he does not take good shots. A bad shooter could have a high FG% if he is taking good shots. A dumb shooter cannot have a high FG% unless he is just lights out on all shots. A smart shooter cannot have a low FG% unless he just cannot shoot.

  2. #92
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    Actually, if the OP wouldn't mind, I think it would be good if the thread title could be changed, maybe to simply, "Advanced NBA Statistics". If we can't have a forum to discuss them, a thread, at least, would be good.
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  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by thescore53 View Post
    chronz should destroy this thread. if he hasnt so far. too lazy to read the other pages
    http://bit.ly/bqx8f6
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  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenButsu View Post
    Actually, if the OP wouldn't mind, I think it would be good if the thread title could be changed, maybe to simply, "Advanced NBA Statistics". If we can't have a forum to discuss them, a thread, at least, would be good.
    Can we just have a brand new thread, instead?

    That way it's immediately discussing the topic at hand rather than delving into one particular case for 4 pages.

    Don't hate me, KoB. Great thread.

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wade>You View Post
    I see a lot of crying about FG%, I just don't many people backing it up as to why it's flawed, only a few people have explained themselves. Even then, their reasoning is "TS% and eFG% have a different purpose."

    I wonder if it's because your favorite player is exposed as a poor FG% shooter, but his 3pters and FTMs make him better, so it must be flawed?
    http://www.82games.com/locations.htm

    The 3 point shot is pretty important and for FG% to ignore it and give equal weight does make it a poor statistic.
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  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hustla23 View Post
    Can we just have a brand new thread, instead?

    That way it's immediately discussing the topic at hand rather than delving into one particular case for 4 pages.

    Don't hate me, KoB. Great thread.
    That's probably a good idea, actually. I'd agree with that.
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  7. #97
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    Assist Ratio vs. Ast%

    I thought I'd keep the discussion going with the Advanced statistics.

    Basketball-reference has Ast% vs. what they have on ESPN and Hoopdata with Assist Ratio. These are different statistics and they do have different meanings.

    From basketball-reference

    AST%
    Assist Percentage (available since the 1964-65 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * AST / (((MP / (Tm MP / 5)) * Tm FG) - FG). Assist percentage is an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on on the floor.
    From ESPN

    AST: Assist Ratio - the percentage of a player's possessions that ends in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]
    Both of these stats are better then assists per game as that completely ignores pace.

    A look at the league leaders:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...0_leaders.html

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holli...%3dassistRatio

    Pretty different. Why? Well upon closer look, the guys with really high Ast% have higher USG% too compared to the guys with just high Assist Ratios. Lebron is not even on the league leaders for Assist Ratio but he's 5th in Ast%- it's because he's 2nd in the NBA in usage rate. So he's going to Ast on a really high percentage of his teams FG because he's used more (and is obviously a good passer too) then say someone like Jason Kidd who doesn't have everything run through him all the time. So for the possessions that Jason Kidd is involved in, a very high % of them end in an assist but the % of the teams FG that he assisted won't be as high since his USG rate isn't as high and because Ast% is based on the minutes you're on the floor, not on the possessions in which you're involved in. I'm not sure if I did the best job explaining this but it does make sense in my head lol.

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by PatsSoxKnicks; 09-04-2010 at 01:58 AM.
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  8. #98
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    FG% isn't flawed....FG% simply tells you ones makes vs misses of shots taken. Bottom line is, the closer you are to converting half of those shots, the better.

  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wade>You View Post
    It's fine by me if people want to use it, because it does have a purpose. But IMO FG% is a better indicator of who puts the ball in the basket more often (when PPG is close enough) than TS%. Since the majority of the game is played from the field, and FG% already includes attempts/makes from 3pt range, it tells me (at least) everything I want to know for that player's ability to score.
    agreed

    Low FG% = bad IQ on good shots vs bad shots

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenButsu View Post
    If what you don't like about TS% is the inclusion of free throws, then you might like the eFG%:



    But really, all this comes down to in the end is making sure that it's understood what each stat measures, so that when you're asking a question you choose the correct kind of information that will help you answer that question. And the problem with simple FG% is that it is less revelatory than more advanced shooting stats, which limits its ability to answer deeper questions for us.

    So, for example, if we ask the question, "Who is the more effective scorer, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups or J.R. Smith?", then we can look at their stats from last season:
    Code:
    	FG%	TS%	eFG%
    Melo	.458	.548	.478	
    Billups	.418	.601	.499
    Smith	.414	.515	.491
    If you use only the simple FG% stat to compare them, then you'll conclude that while Billups' and Smith's scoring effectivenes is nearly identical, Melo clearly has both of them beat. But that's not the case.

    One thing Billups and Smith have in common is that they both rely a lot on the 3 for a good chunk of their scoring. And hitting a good number of 3s at a good percentage is a very efficient way to score, so we see thier eFG% spike up quite a bit (since it takes into account 3 point shots being more valuable than 2 point shots), while Melo's only creeps up a little, and he actually gets passed by.

    But then when you look at the TS%, the importance of being able to get to the line and knock down those FTs emerges. And it's really there where I think we see the correct order of things: That Billups is the most efficient scorer, followed by Melo, and then by J.R. Melo and CB both get to the line a lot, and Billups of course is an amazing FT shooter.

    None of which, of course, takes into account things which can only be understood from watching the games, such as the fact that Melo is nearly always double- or triple-teamed, while J.R. usually gets fairly open looks on his 3s (which means we need to interpret the above stats more favorably for Melo and less so for J.R.).

    But I think the main point, that simple FG% alone tells one kind of story, but it's a limited and incomplete story (and all stats are incomplete, but some tell us more than others), is pretty clear with this kind of example.
    Melo is easily the more eff scorer IMO. What people fail to realize is the more actual missed shots you have (especially for volume shooters) leads to more off balance defense for your teams and easier scores for the other team

  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by patsSOXknicks View Post
    I thought I'd keep the discussion going with the Advanced statistics.

    Basketball-reference has Ast% vs. what they have on ESPN and Hoopdata with Assist Ratio. These are different statistics and they do have different meanings.

    From basketball-reference



    From ESPN



    Both of these stats are better then assists per game as that completely ignores pace.

    A look at the league leaders:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...0_leaders.html

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holli...%3dassistRatio

    Pretty different. Why? Well upon closer look, the guys with really high Ast% have higher USG% too compared to the guys with just high Assist Ratios. Lebron is not even on the league leaders for Assist Ratio but he's 5th in Ast%- it's because he's 2nd in the NBA in usage rate. So he's going to Ast on a really high percentage of his teams FG because he's used more (and is obviously a good passer too) then say someone like Jason Kidd who doesn't have everything run through him all the time. So for the possessions that Jason Kidd is involved in, a very high % of them end in an assist but the % of the teams FG that he assisted won't be as high since his USG rate isn't as high and because Ast% is based on the minutes you're on the floor, not on the possessions in which you're involved in. I'm not sure if I did the best job explaining this but it does make sense in my head lol.

    Thoughts?
    better than apg,i agree.but assists stats still bug me as its to subjective

  12. #102
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    Who cares. Danilo Galinari still sucks. In those two back to back games against the bulls he looked drunk. His shots were hitting off the top of the backboard and air balling like crazy.

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by chitownbears89 View Post
    Who cares. Danilo Galinari still sucks. In those two back to back games against the bulls he looked drunk. His shots were hitting off the top of the backboard and air balling like crazy.
    Nice.....judge a player off a small sample size of 2 games. You'd make an excellent GM

    And you completely ignored the point of the original post. It was not to show anything about Gallinari, it was to show that TS% is a better tool to evaluate a player then FG%.
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  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by abe_froman View Post
    better than apg,i agree.but assists stats still bug me as its to subjective
    I mean a poor pass can be caught because of excellent hands on the recipient end etc. so I see what you mean but I would guess that over a large sample size, thats not much of a problem.
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  15. #105
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    Okay, peoples, I just made a more general advanced stats thread here:

    http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums...d.php?t=529515

    That's probably what I should have done in the first place. Sorry for bumping this old one.
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