Prospect Updates, Part 2!

[TheIlladelph16]

Uhg. That's a pretty ugly list.

A little surprised Valle was bumped entirely. I guess they really don't like his plate approach. Also surprised about Quinn at #2. Must be purely about upside since most of the guys below him have limited upside.

Quinn has game-changing speed and batted very well in his first year of switch hitting, so I believe that's why he got bumped so high. While there are no blue chip prospects there, I think you might be underselling a little bit by saying its an ugly list.

[koldjerky]

It's at least decent to see some position prospects in there. Especially infieelders

[Dark Donnie]

Baseball America released the organization's Top 10 rankings with our prospects:

1. Jesse Biddle, LHP
2. Roman Quinn, SS
3. Tommy Joseph, C
4. Jon Pettibone, RHP
5. Adam Morgan, LHP
6. Ethan Martin, RHP
7. Cody Asche, 3B
8. Maikel Franco, 3B
9. Darin Ruf, 1B/OF
10. Carlos Tocci, OF

The list was about what I expected with Quinn surprising me going up to #2 and Tocci all the way up to #10.

Good to see Morgan up there...also like Martin as well. Considered almost a throw in at the time of the Victorino trade, he had a nice season.

[k_dol50]

It's at least decent to see some position prospects in there. Especially infieelders

Yeah, but does that say good things about Quinn, Asche, and Franco, or does it just mean that the system is so bad that what was once considered an organizational strength (pitching) isn't even that good anymore?

[TheIlladelph16]

Good to see Morgan up there...also like Martin as well. Considered almost a throw in at the time of the Victorino trade, he had a nice season.

I'm a big fan of Morgan. Scouts were talking about him as a "sneaky" prospect in that he was going to surprise some people.

From what I see, our strengths obviously are in BP and SPs. No bonafide aces, but Biddle, Morgan, and Martin all have the potential to be good-to-great #2 pitchers. Pettibone has the highest floor out of any of them and should be a mid to back end fixture in our rotation.

Position wise, I'm high on Joseph, Quinn, Franco and Tocci with Tocci being the furthest from the majors. If his body develops some natural power, he could be really good in the future. I'm not sold on Ruf or Valle at this point, but both can contribute at some point. Asche is another question mark for me as well.

[koldjerky]

Yeah, but does that say good things about Quinn, Asche, and Franco, or does it just mean that the system is so bad that what was once considered an organizational strength (pitching) isn't even that good anymore?

As theilla said, the pitching isn't top of the line stuff but still some potential number 2 type guys. I'm actually really high on Biddle. Should do well in AA this season.

That said, I'd rather see solid position prospect than solid pitching prospects because they seem to flame out in the phillies system more regularly as evident by most of the guys they've given up. It's all hindsight and obviously players aren't all the same but Drabek was probably the highest regarded pitching spec we've seen since Hamels. Not exactly showing much even though he's young.

Plus we haven't seen some highly regarded infield specs in a while

[TheIlladelph16]

I'm also intrigued with the 16th pick in this draft. It doesn't seem like there are any compensation-type FAs left, and if there are, Ruben doesn't seem to be pursuing them at this time. This will be our highest draft pick since we took Gavin Floyd in the Top 10. I don't quite follow the draft classes, but it could be our shot a true blue-chip prospect... The question is where does the pick get used: Pitching or Position?

[k_dol50]

That's what I'm asking, though. How highly regarded are these infield specs? Or is it just that the rest of the system is so sub-par that they just happen to be the best we've got?

[TheIlladelph16]

That's what I'm asking, though. How highly regarded are these infield specs? Or is it just that the rest of the system is so sub-par that they just happen to be the best we've got?

From what I've read, I would say our Farm ranks anywhere between the 18-25 range in team rankings. None of our infield specs are "highly" regarded at this point like your asking. Quinn just finished his first season in the minor leagues, so he is too far away at this point.

Our most highly regarded infield spec would probably be Franco at 3B. Our infield strength is mostly in the lower levels, so its hard to project those players unless they are true blue chip guys.

[Mandrew]

The young guys that I'm going to be watching are Maikel Franco, Carlos Tocci, and Dylan Cozens. I'm really hoping the Phillies got a steal in Cozens. He's a mammoth with big time power.

Those three guys are all really young so they won't be up any time soon, but they all have very high ceilings.

[Synyster89]

From what I've read, I would say our Farm ranks anywhere between the 18-25 range in team rankings. None of our infield specs are "highly" regarded at this point like your asking. Quinn just finished his first season in the minor leagues, so he is too far away at this point.

Our most highly regarded infield spec would probably be Franco at 3B. Our infield strength is mostly in the lower levels, so its hard to project those players unless they are true blue chip guys.

I dont know where your are pulling this # from? These teams all have better farms than us:

Orioles
Rays
Red Sox
Yankees
Blue Jays
Indians
Tigers
Royals
Twins
Astros
Athletics
Mariners
Rangers
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Cubs
Reds
Pirates
Cardinals
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Dodgers
Padres

That leaves the Phillies in the bottom five and the other teams I left off you could rate above the Phillies depending on who you value.

[mets100%]

What happened to Salvador Valle? Bad year ? Injury?.

[The A Team]

Sebastian.

I was surprised BA left him off completely. He continued to make progress defensively and he's showing good pop for his age/level. Catching prospects tend to be behind the development track when it comes to hitting. His biggest problem is an impatient approach at the plate that will likely take years to correct.

Based on the tools reports I've read and some basic stats work, I like him just as much as Joseph and couldn't reconcile ranking him behind Cody Asche (though to be fair I think Asche is a 15-20 range guy who wouldn't touch the top 30 in several systems)

[bowan1228]

I think the Phil's farm system is pretty much what you would expect from a team that has drafted in the bottom half or at the bottom of the first round for a decade, has traded away prospects to try to win another WS and signed compensation associated free agents with the same goal in mind.

For the person who posted the Phils system is bottom five and the teams not listed may also be better, I will respond that I have not seen a single publication that has listed us as the worst Farm system in baseball. If that source exists, please post it.

I would also find it hard to believe that there are multiple organizations with more than 30 prospects better than Asche. If there are, please name them.

If you want a really strong farm system, easy solution. Trade away major leaguers for prospects and suck for a decade like the Nationals. Not like they were some draft gurus to select Harper and Strausburg.

And by the way, the Braves organization that everyone admires so much has made 2 trips to playoffs as wild card in last 7 yrs and lost both times in first round they played.

Not that our organization has not made major mistakes in draft, trades and free agent signings but really, we've missed playoffs once in 6 yrs in a year when we had catastrophic injury totals but if I listened to this site, I would think we are the worst organization in baseball.

Arguments carry more weight when they are not so biasly negative for an organization that has done very well in the last 10 yrs.

[The A Team]

Without going through each and every name, I suspect the Padres and Rangers could keep Asche out of their top 30.

Almost any projectable, young pitching prospect is a better prospect than Asche. He profiles as a 0-2 WAR role player with almost no upside. It's hard to call that profile a prospect.

I don't understand the last line. Nobody is being negatively biased here. The team's performance from 2006-2011 is irrelevant. The distribution of talent is completely different now, the risk profile is staggering, and the farm system is objectively weak, regardless of where it ranks relative to others.

This is still a team that can win 95 games, but they're probably equally likely to win 75 and they can't count on substantial reinforcements from within the organization in the next year.