Top 10 MLB Prospects Heading Into 2010?

[FriarFanatic]

1) Heyward
2) Strasburg
3) Bumgarner
4) Stanton
5) Posey
6) Feliz
7) Alvarez
8) Smoak
9) Matusz
10) Ackley

[Matchstckman]

Yea I'm not sure I'd put Vitters that high. He reverted last year. This upcomming season should be a good indication to see where hes heading.

Vitters, in my mind, didn't so much revert as the system around him just caught up.

[C-ross12]

I think he's still the Cubs best prospect. However, I think what happened was he got too goo for his level, offensively, and he thought he could hit everything. Because he could. Thus, less walks. He hits winterball, no longer the case. I think we'll see a Josh Vitters who takes more pitches in 2010. And I have him above Castro and Cashner because I still think he provides the best chance for a star player.

However neither Castro or Vitters is in my top 10.

Yea I actually kind of think that too. The problem with some of the rankings are that the "Newer" guys get put ahead, IE Jackson. I dont think either of them will be better ML players then Vitters.

[C-ross12]

Vitters, in my mind, didn't so much revert as the system around him just caught up.

Maybe. He REALLY needs to work on some things though. From what I read he has a sort of Lacksidasical(SP?) approach. I'd like to see him work on his patience and defense above all.

[Jilly Bohnson]

As for my O's Brian Matusz is a top 10 prospect.

Here's my list for the NL:
1. Jason Heyward, Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, National
3. Madison Bumgarner, Giants
4. Buster Posey, Giants
5. Christian Friedrich, Rockies
6. Josh Vitters, Cubs
7. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
8. Jason Castro, Astros
9. Mike Stanton, Marlins
10. Starlin Castro, Cubs

I love love love love love love Vitters. He's the first guy I really wanted when I started closely following the draft and the Cubs came through for me and picked him. But even with as much as I'm a homer for him, he is not a top 10 prospect. He's probably not even a top 30 prospect. He's a very good young hitter with oodles of projection, but who hasn't yet shown the plate discipline to be an elite prospect. Castro's not a top 10 prospect either, although he's a little closer.

he did fine in his few innings of pitching last year, maybe his fastball wasn't at the velocity it probably should have been but the guy is only 20 years old, he is bound to get tired. He is still baseball's top pitching prospect not named Strausberg

If he just got tired then that's one thing, but a lot of pitchers have their stuff regress pretty dramatically once they get some heavy innings on their arm. I mean 93-95 MPH fastball sharp breaking ball Madison Bumgarner is an elite pitching prospect. High 80's fastball mediocre breaking ball Bumgarner like we saw at the and of last year is not. There are very real concerns for him. I mean I'd probably have him at the back end of the top 10 just as a "give him the benefit of the doubt" kind of thing, but if he doesn't get that extra zip back on his fastball and tighten up that breaking ball he is not an elite prospect anymore.

[Jilly Bohnson]

Homer alert...

Where is Escobar? He is still a rookie and a prospect.

Escobar's not going to hit that much. I mean he's a very good prospect, but he's hardly elite if you ask me. I think absolute best case scenario he's a 4 win guy. That's good, hell that's very good, but I think from a top 10 prospect you either want a guy who you KNOW will be very good, or you want guys who have a pretty good chance at being great.

[Pharoe18]

Let's give some love to Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison of the Marlins.

[JIMMY CONWAY]

Who cares? The odds of them hitting the big time are like 1000 to 1...

[FC_4_life]

Miguel Montero isn't a rookie anymore, if you mean Jesus then yeah.

Haha yeah. Jesus Montero is a beast.

[Jilly Bohnson]

Who cares? The odds of them hitting the big time are like 1000 to 1...

That's not anywhere even remotely close to true.

[bosox3431]

Who cares? The odds of them hitting the big time are like 1000 to 1...

Sorry to inform you of the bad new, but your wrong.

[QUOTE]

Victor Wang has done some tremendous research about prospects and their value. In determining their value he had to find the rate of which players bust in each category he divided them into. This is a healthy dose of realism to keep in mind when we’re looking at the any one club’s farm system.

* 10% of top 10 hitting prospects bust.
* 31% of top 10 pitching prospects bust.
* 21% of top 11-25 hitting prospects bust.
* 32% of top 11-25 pitching prospects bust.
* 35% of top 26-50 hitting prospects bust.
* 33% of top 26-50 pitching prospects bust.
* 45% of top 51-75 hitting prospects bust.
* 39% of top 51-75 pitching prospects bust.
* 43% of top 76-100 hitting prospects bust.
* 43% of top 76-100 pitching prospects bust.
* 59% of ‘B grade’ hitting prospects bust.
* 52% of ‘B grade’ pitching prospects bust.
* 83% of ‘C grade’ hitting prospects bust.
* Around 75% of all ‘C grade’ pitching prospects bust.

Top 100 prospects are Baseball America’s. B and C grades are as ranked by prospect wonk John Sickels./QUOTE]

[Kinsm]

Extremely surprised this hasn't been moved to the prospect forum yet.

[giantspwn]

Mad Bum and Buster

[VRP723]

[QUOTE=bosox3431;11738299]Sorry to inform you of the bad new, but your wrong.

How does he determine if a player is a bust?

[Jilly Bohnson]

[QUOTE=VRP723;11738387]

Sorry to inform you of the bad new, but your wrong.



How does he determine if a player is a bust?

http://philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-11.pdf

Basically he uses a stat similar to WAR to classify guys into Busts, Bench players, Regulars, and Stars.