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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by zzConflict View Post
    15 games worth of data is meaningless..
    then why did you post them in the first place??

    personally smoak will be the better hitter, the better batting average player. he'll hit .310+ while davis will be around .270-.275

    smoak i understand but alonso, who's done nothing close to davis, being ranked ahead of davis is what annoyed me.

    HOW BOUT DEM COWBOYS!!

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by blueNorange View Post
    then why did you post them in the first place??
    Holy **** this is why I rarely venture outside of the White Sox forum. Everyone else on this place is borderline ********.

    I was merely showing that the numbers posted by Nymfan87 were extremely misleading.
    Loose seal. Watch out for loose seal.

    I don't care about Lucille. She lies.


  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by zzConflict View Post
    15 games worth of data is meaningless. It tells us almost nothing about what they will do long term. I was just using stats to show that Davis was getting lucky because Nymfan87 was claiming that Davis is better base on the numbers, but really, they're misleading.
    That is not the thing, no stat is meaningless, because they all count and matter. Yes is a very small sample size and should not be taken too seriously, but I have shown stats from the last 2 years, not just from this year, but from what they did in the minors as well.

    ...and once again projections are just that, they are not givens, they are not things set in stone. That is why you give more credit to what the guys have done on the field. With that said I still believe that Smoak will end up the better hitter, but am not going to sit here and say he will end up the all around better player.

  4. #64
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    The main thing on Davis isn't the stats, it's that the scouting at this point also says he's a stud. The knock against Davis two years ago was there were some mechanical issues with his swing. But mechanics can be corrected. And were.

    The scouting at the time though was also that he was an unusually athletic 6'4", and that while he was one of the better hitters in the college ranks that year, he also had a bunch of power projection remaining on that 6'4" frame. David Cooper was probably a better hitter at the time, but not by much, and most scouts preferred Davis because he had much more upside, while Cooper lacked athleticism and profiled as more of a DH. Toronto's pick of Cooper ahead of Davis looked odd even at the time.

    Some are ignoring that Davis since then has continued to improve at a rapid rate for two years now. The swing mechanics have improved. He has also continued to get stronger each year, as he fills out that frame and the power projection becomes reality. The overall tools are outstanding. Real strong kid, great athleticism, outstanding arm, very strong hands, and outstanding bat control.

    One concern last year was that the strikeouts were a bit high. But while that's sometimes a warning signal in minor league stats, it'd not foolproof, and for some guys it's not an issue. Once you get to the majors though, strikeouts are really the same as any other out. As long as a guy is hitting, they don't really matter much.

    Ike was pushed pretty quickly to the majors, and I would expect he might still have at least some pitch recognition issues this year as he adjusts. Based on the tools though, the adjustment shouldn't be too difficult and before long he should be hitting .285+ with about a .360 OBP, with near 30 HR and maybe even more doubles. Basically he projects pretty easily to a Justin Morneau type.

    I would bet that if you polled scouts that were actually watching this year, whether in spring training, in AAA, or in the majors, Davis would currently rank in the top 30. I think Davis, Smoak, and Morrison are probably the top three still rookie eligible young 1B right now in some order. Yonder Alonso and Freddie Freeman are guys who were probably just a bit over rated coming into the year.

  5. #65
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    Davis was projected by some to have 40 home run power, now I doubt he hits that many numerous times, but is not out of the realm of possibility that he does it once or twice imo.

    ...but your right ace, his mechanics have improved tremendously from his 1st year in Brooklyn to now in the majors.


    Oh and while I also belief he still could improved his pitch recognition ability, I have been impressed with his ability to work the count so far.
    Last edited by Sick Of It All; 05-09-2010 at 12:49 AM.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    Davis was projected by some to have 40 home run power, now I doubt he hits that many numerous times, but is not out of the realm of possibility that he does it once or twice imo.
    Oh yeah, no doubt he has the ability to hit 40. He's a beast. He has much more raw power than Wright for example. But, I'm thinking he'll put more emphasis on keeping a line drive stroke, hitting for a high average, and hitting a bunch of doubles, and will still hit 30 HR while doing all that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    Oh and while I also belief he still could improved his pitch recognition ability, I have been impressed with his ability to work the count so far.
    Oh yeah. People talk about small samples. But with prospects you are always dealing with small samples, because the good ones improve so rapidly. Sometimes you also have to consider the improbability of things occurring only due to luck. Ike has 131 PA now this year between spring training, AAA, and MLB. And in those PA, he has hit .367/.466/.679, for an 1.145 OPS. And those are all better levels of competition than he faced last year.

    I'm just saying he's not done improving. The guy will keep getting better. That doesn't mean the OPS won't drop below .900 at some point this season, as pitchers maybe will find some flaws. Only that the skills will continue to get better, the tools are there.

  7. #67
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    davis came in at 195, he's now at 215 and could add another 10-15 pounds.

    HOW BOUT DEM COWBOYS!!

  8. #68
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    as of now....IKE!

  9. #69
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    This thread is filled with Mets fans trying to overhype their prospects lol.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    This thread is filled with Mets fans trying to overhype their prospects lol.
    Small sample size, but so far Davis looks like he belongs in the bigs while Smoak is currently getting overmatched. Davis is 8 for 12 against lefties this year...which is absolutely freaking insane.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymfan87 View Post
    Small sample size, but so far Davis looks like he belongs in the bigs while Smoak is currently getting overmatched. Davis is 8 for 12 against lefties this year...which is absolutely freaking insane.
    Smoak also has I believe a 9 game hitting streak.

  12. #72
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    yo davis is clearly better. He started off hot and made his adjustments so that he never got into a cold streak. hes reached base in 30 of the 32 games hes played in. and his defense has been great, something the mets havent had at first base in years.

    smoak is batting beneath 200

  13. #73
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    So far, Ike in a landslide.

    It is still so, so early in both of their careers, but Ike seems to be adjusting much, much better.

    Hitting for average and power. He is also handling lefties extremely well.

    And, what else can you say about his defense? Has been amazing.

  14. #74
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    Smoak has a BABIP below .160 now and an average of .168. No player in the last 8 years has finished a season with a lower BABIP that has played at least 110 PA. That is just horrible luck.

    Inversely, Davis has a .365 BABIP and is hitting .290. Davis has a LD% of 21.8%, Smoak 22.8% Normalize both or even regress both to the standard normal outliers of .270 to .330 and Smoak has as good if not better numbers. Look at their numbers even right now... comparable AB's and even with Smoak having horrible luck his ISO, BB%, K% all fall within line with Ike. The interesting part will be the eventual regression for Ike on IFFB% that normailzes to the approximate 10% mark instead of the sub 4% he is at right now and his unsustainable BABIP.

    I like Davis and think he will be a league average is not slightly better 1B but longterm you take Smoak. Even with historical bad luck numbers he could still be a league average 1B if he normalizes his BABIP from here on out to .270 to finish the year. Bad luck like this can't continue forever. He is so far an outliers on the normal curve that it has gone from being a "aww shucks" feeling for a young player to a comical LOL moment every time you look at his box score.

  15. #75
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    Going forward, it's Smoak in a landslide IMO. Nice to see Davis off to such a good start though

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