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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfan89 View Post
    Translation: use a statistic that smoak is better than davis with. cause davis' SLG is better, but suddenly its flawed.
    Mistranslation. Here's what it means:

    OPS is a flawed statistic because it places an equal emphasis on OBP and SLG. They're not. OBP has a scale that maxes out at 1.00, while SLG can go higher than that. That being said, it undervalues some players and overvalues others. You'll find that a player with an OBP of .300 and a SLG of .600 will have the same OPS as a player with an OBP of .400 and a SLG of .500, yet the second player generates more runs.

    The way to fix this is 1.8 * OBP + SLG, and if you divide it by 4 you get a number scaled to batting average (this is called Gross Production Average).

    Davis: 0.302 GPA
    Smoak: 0.295 GPA

    That's...much, much closer than what OPS would make it seem. Smoak is also playing at a higher level than Davis is. Davis is also striking out in about 6% more of his plate appearances than Smoak is, which doesn't translate well.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    Mistranslation. Here's what it means:

    OPS is a flawed statistic because it places an equal emphasis on OBP and SLG. They're not. OBP has a scale that maxes out at 1.00, while SLG can go higher than that. That being said, it undervalues some players and overvalues others. You'll find that a player with an OBP of .300 and a SLG of .600 will have the same OPS as a player with an OBP of .400 and a SLG of .500, yet the second player generates more runs.

    The way to fix this is 1.8 * OBP + SLG, and if you divide it by 4 you get a number scaled to batting average (this is called Gross Production Average).

    Davis: 0.302 GPA
    Smoak: 0.295 GPA

    That's...much, much closer than what OPS would make it seem. Smoak is also playing at a higher level than Davis is. Davis is also striking out in about 6% more of his plate appearances than Smoak is, which doesn't translate well.
    The point of the thread originally is not that Davis is better as i said Smoak was better.Yet that 1 guy is having just as good year as the other but 1 is a lot more touted than the other. Smoak will be a top 5 prospect in all MLB, while Davis will be lucky to make the top 100, now why is this the case?
    Last edited by Sick Of It All; 09-03-2009 at 04:37 PM.

  3. #18
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    ..but to be fair to both of them here are their numbers in AA.

    Smoak .328/.449/.481/.930 39/35 bb/k ratio
    Davis .309/.386/.565/.951 26/60 bb/k ratio

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    The point of the thread originally is not that Davis is better as i said Smoak was better.Yett that 1 guy is having just as good year as the other but 1 is a lot more touted than the other. Smoak will be a top 5 prospect in all MLB, while Davis will be lucky to make the top 100, now why is this the case?
    Hm, for some reason I never saw this posted before. Anyways...

    Prospecting is about projection, not about Minor League statistics. Smoak projects to hit much better than Davis in the Majors, and he has an outstanding glove as well.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    Hm, for some reason I never saw this posted before. Anyways...

    Prospecting is about projection, not about Minor League statistics. Smoak projects to hit much better than Davis in the Majors, and he has an outstanding glove as well.
    Davis when drafted was guy that was projected to hit 40 homers, so how is it that Smoak projects to hit much better? Also Davis has a very good glove as well, so that is not it. So far Davis has shown more power and actually doing it means more than being projected to do so.


    The thing that Smoak has better plate discipline period. His ability to walk more and k less make him better. Point is regardless of projections Davis is putting up just as good numbers as Smoak, Smoak was just more highly touted out of the draft. Or it could be Ike had such a bad year last year In A ball that some people thought he may be a bust.

    Davis wOBA in AA .426
    Smoak wOBA in AA .428


    I will be very interested to see where these 2 guys are ranked once the prospect listings come out.
    Last edited by Sick Of It All; 09-03-2009 at 04:38 PM.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    Davis when drafted was guy that was projected to hit 40 homers, so how is it that Smoak projects to hit much better? Also Davis has a very good glove as well, so that is not it. So far Davis has shown more power and actually doing it means more than being projected to do so.

    The thing that Smoak has better plate discipline period. His ability to walk more and k less make him better. Point is regardless of projections Davis is putting up just as good numbers as Smoak, Smoak was just more highly touted out of the draft.
    Showing more power in the Minor Leagues isn't necessarily indicative of future skills in the Majors. And hitting dingerz doesn't make two hitters equal or one better than the other- it's the culmination of the ability to hit for average, get on base, and hit for power.

    Looks like you've answered your own question. Smoak walks more and strikes out less. Guys like that profile to hit better in the Major Leagues. Smoak is being touted more because scouts believe he has a greater chance of succeeding in the Major Leagues than Ike Davis. It's as simple as that.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    Showing more power in the Minor Leagues isn't necessarily indicative of future skills in the Majors. And hitting dingerz doesn't make two hitters equal or one better than the other- it's the culmination of the ability to hit for average, get on base, and hit for power.

    Looks like you've answered your own question. Smoak walks more and strikes out less. Guys like that profile to hit better in the Major Leagues. Smoak is being touted more because scouts believe he has a greater chance of succeeding in the Major Leagues than Ike Davis. It's as simple as that.
    ...but when player A is projected to hit for power and then does it in the minors just shows that his early projections were somewhat on the mark because he has shown the ability to do so. Therefore the likelihood that he does it in the majors is greater, Than player B who has been projected to be a power hitter and has never hit for much power in the minors.


    I have answers my question but IMO the difference between the 2 players should not be as significant as it will probably be. Smoak will rank top 10 while Davis ranks 90 something.

  8. #23
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    Smoak is a beast. He was a So. Carolina and he is still doing his thing now.
    No one on here is saying Ike Davis isn't a good prospect. Smoak is just better, the Teixeira similarities are pretty close. Great glove and switch hitter with a good eye (very good BB/K rate) that hits for both avg and power. There is no question, Smoak is the better all around prospect.

  9. #24
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    Also, has anybody taken into consideration that Smoak was dealing with an injured oblique this year? Definitely explains the lack of power.

    In the Baseball WC he's got 5 long balls in four games. Looks like that oblique has finally begun to heal.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  10. #25
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    Davis also had some injury problems this year. He was out with bruised ribs.

  11. #26
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    I would argue smoak with Morrison as the two best 1st base prospects in the minors ( personally feel smoak will be the best). Just their eyes are absolutely amazing for their ages and progress.
    "Joe Montana was a product of a system, Dan Marino was a system" -- Bill Walsh

  12. #27
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    Smoak will have unreal number specially considering where he is going to play.

  13. #28
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    The SO and OBP numbers are a good indicator but then again there are exceptions to the rule like Mr. Ryan Howard...

    Personally I think the difference is because Smoak is in AAA while Davis is in AA and that Smoak has not had a drought yet while Davis has...

  14. #29
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    Smoak>Davis - I think it's simple Smoak's abilities can easily translate into MLB success.


  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by DieHardColtsfan View Post
    Smoak>Davis - I think it's simple Smoak's abilities can easily translate into MLB success.
    That is yet to be determined. Smoak has more potential, that's all, now lets see who turns their potential to reality.

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