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  1. #1
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    The Success Rate of PCL vs IL Positional Prospects?

    We've seen how the PCL affects offensive stats. Was just wondering if there is a difference in % of positional player prospects in the PCL who bust in comparison to their more neutral league (IL) counterparts?

    I know publications and scouts rank positional player prospects (and all prospects) on tools but there are obvious benefits to offensive production playing in the PCL and I was wondering how much that could skew perspective?

    Conversely, how much does it benefit a pitcher if he finds a way to dominate the PCL, given it's offensive friendly nature, as well? Like I said I get that it's mostly tool, mechanics, etc based but it seems almost unfair to compare leagues, even if PCL stats were down last year.

    The Mets AAA team have this problem playing their games in Vegas which is notoriously hitter friendly.
    Last edited by metswon69; 02-22-2014 at 11:46 PM.

  2. #2
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    This article from 2001 discusses the difference between players moving from the IL and PCL to MLB.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...?articleid=950

    In all six cases, the IL has a smaller dropoff than the PCL, by an average of 10 points. In five out of six cases, players from the IL performed better than players who had graduated from the PCL, by an average of five points. That's the evidence behind the claim.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    This article from 2001 discusses the difference between players moving from the IL and PCL to MLB.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...?articleid=950
    Cool, thanks. I appreciate the work as I couldn't find anything related to the subject that was of an accredited source.

  4. #4
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    The Success Rate of PCL vs IL Positional Prospects?

    that study didn't reveal anything that wasn't already known. plus it does not study the differences between PCL players playing in old American Association cities, like Louisville or New Orleans compared to some western PCL teams like Albuquerque, Edmonton, etc.

    The Am. Assc. was pretty much on par with the IL before it was folded into the PCL. If there is a greater "failure rate" of hitters from the PCL, it would be because inflated numbers increase expectations of uninformed fans. Greg Brock of the Dodgers, early 1980s, is a classic example.

    As the study admitted, it wasn't a qualitative study to determine if playing in certain cities truly impacts success rates. Albuquerque was always a hitters park, but the Dodgers developed an excellent bunch - pitchers and hitters - including something like 5 ROYs in a row.
    Last edited by Dugmet; 04-03-2014 at 04:24 AM.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

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