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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by colinskik View Post
    For one, UZR still ignores factors that are very crucial to fielding a ball (spin that is put on the ball, field conditions, etc.).

    .....

    Now how about you watch some games and stop with the equations....
    Seriously??
    You want a metric for spin??? How about the fielder catches the ball on the proper hop (ie the short hop or big hop not the inbetween hop), which probably strongly correlates to "fielding" errors (non throwing errors)

    and field conditions??? these are MLB stadiums, not local parks that arent kept up. Yes I know some have taller grass, some have harder/drier surfaces, some use turf, but the end of the day, these fields are kept in such immaculate condition, that you dont see bad hops, due to field conditions.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milnertime View Post
    Every play saves or loses runs.

    That's the point of both run probability and win probability matrices. You obviously have an opinion about it that isn't going to change despite the great evidence any one of us could show you, so really it's not worth the discussion you are trying to have.

    And as for Jeter's "clutch" play....you remember that one time when he made up for something by making an awesome play, but I'm sure there are plenty of times where he messed up and didn't redeem himself. UZR is about the culmination of all of the plays, not just a few.
    How does a 2 out pop fly that is misplayed by the CFer save or lose runs if the next batter strikes out?

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by steveshane67 View Post
    Seriously??
    You want a metric for spin??? How about the fielder catches the ball on the proper hop (ie the short hop or big hop not the inbetween hop), which probably strongly correlates to "fielding" errors (non throwing errors)

    and field conditions??? these are MLB stadiums, not local parks that arent kept up. Yes I know some have taller grass, some have harder/drier surfaces, some use turf, but the end of the day, these fields are kept in such immaculate condition, that you dont see bad hops, due to field conditions.
    What about if the ball hits the lip of the infield grass? What about when it's raining heavier then it should be but the ump refuses to stop play? What about stadiums with domes as opposed to ones without? There are a ton of factors that I don't believe are taken into account (although as far as I know some of these I just stated may indeed be factored into some).

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by colinskik View Post
    What about if the ball hits the lip of the infield grass? What about when it's raining heavier then it should be but the ump refuses to stop play? What about stadiums with domes as opposed to ones without? There are a ton of factors that I don't believe are taken into account (although as far as I know some of these I just stated may indeed be factored into some).
    Your just nitpicking examples that really have no effect on the overall picture. If a player is good enough over a long period defensively those very very few and far between examples wont skew the overall picture much.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1-800-STFU View Post
    Your just nitpicking examples that really have no effect on the overall picture. If a player is good enough over a long period defensively those very very few and far between examples wont skew the overall picture much.
    Yes, perhaps I am nitpicking, but I still think that until a defensive stat can take into account how good or bad a player truly is, then they are all just irrelevant.

    Anyway, thanks to all in here who tried to show me their point of view on the topic. Alas, it's time to get the **** outta work.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by colinskik View Post
    What about if the ball hits the lip of the infield grass? What about when it's raining heavier then it should be but the ump refuses to stop play? What about stadiums with domes as opposed to ones without? There are a ton of factors that I don't believe are taken into account (although as far as I know some of these I just stated may indeed be factored into some).
    I dont see how these 2 examples negate anything anyones said in this thread.

    Theres probably only 1 situation where a ball hitting the lip of the infield grass would ever effect anything, thats infield pulled in, and someone hits a rocket that catches said lip. BUT that only means the ball will bounce lower than a fielder would expect and if the fielder was practicing sound mechanics, his glove is already on the ground to begin with so its kind of a moot point.

    The rain will not cause the ball to take a bad bounce, more rain/wetter fields, means the ball will be slowed down more by the infield, thus making it easier on the IFer, and not bounce as high, once again, if the IFer is using proper mechanics, a moot point.

    Theres a saying, its called "choose your hop." I see the effect of that all the time when playing NABA ball, the good fielders do such, and the guys that think they are good, but never played at a high level growing up (thus dont have the proper fundamentals), dont, then make excuses after making an error.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by colinskik View Post
    What about if the ball hits the lip of the infield grass? What about when it's raining heavier then it should be but the ump refuses to stop play? What about stadiums with domes as opposed to ones without? There are a ton of factors that I don't believe are taken into account (although as far as I know some of these I just stated may indeed be factored into some).
    What if he had explosive diarrhea on that particular idea? Honestly, those are ridiculously stupid, insignificant examples. Given a large sample size, things like that even out.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by colinskik View Post
    For one, UZR still ignores factors that are very crucial to fielding a ball (spin that is put on the ball, field conditions, etc.).

    Two, of the short stops that have played behind Clemens, Jeter has fielded the most balls. THe law of averages would say that the player who has played more balls (and thus had more chances) will inevitably make more errors.

    Lastly, (and you stat ppl will hate this) but UZR MOST DEFINITELY does not take into account clutchness. The other night Jeter misplayed a double play ball that was thrown to him from the pitcher, missing the catch causing all players to be safe. The very next batter hit a sharp shot to Jeter and he turned a very difficult double play, ending the inning and thereby erasing the previous mistake. If a run had scored because of that miscue, then you say that's Jeter's fault. But NOTHING changed as a result of the first error due to the second chance (which was a much harder play). When it comes down the crunch time, certain players like Jeter will play outside of what the UZR ratings say they are capable of.

    Now how about you watch some games and stop with the equations....
    Jesus Crist I swear one day Jeters clutchness is going to save the whole damn planet.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by colinskik View Post
    Now you're really just being a *******. I am familiar with the most basic of rules as they pertain to baseball, yes. But what I said is that one play, one run-saving play, still is not the end all be all to determining a win.
    Of course I'm being a *******. When you come in here talking about "spin" on the ball and you cite Jeter's "clutchiness," nobody's really going to take you seriously. But let's get back to business, shall we?

    As for Jeter's difficult double play, it was literally the NEXT pitch, so your theory of increasing the pitcher's workload etc. is entirely moot. However, I understand that is an isolated incident, but it's the incident that we're discussing. Furthermore, the point was that UZR is bogus because the first missed DP would show up in those stats even though the second, and completed, DP erased any potential ill effects from the error. As far as I know, UZR does not deal with a pitcher's level of energy or stress. However, again, I don't mess around with these dork stats but it seems you're getting a little off topic as it relates to UZR.
    How does that make any sense? How does that pertain to the topic at hand? On average, that's how it works. So what if the next pitch turned into a DP? The point is, Jeter caused the pitcher to throw more pitches. It's not a "dork" stat just because you don't understand it. UZR separates errors from double plays, by the way.

    And finally, I don't know that any other shortstop would be unable to redeem themselves, but I do know that Jeter will 9 times out of 10 redeem himself.
    Priceless.

    Have you watched Jeter at all on a regular basis? Also, how do you have the time to watch every game of four different teams?
    I don't watch every single game, but I watch them "on a regular basis," as you like to put it. And yes...I've seen plenty of Jeter. Outstanding at handling balls hit into the air, sure-handed, below average but accurate arm. Does not set himself up to make a throw; he prefers to throw on the run. If he gets to the ball, he's making the play. I've seen too many balls get by him that otherwise would have been caught. The media likes to say "pastadiving Jeter," but I don't really see that as a good thing.

    Quote Originally Posted by colinskik View Post
    Yes, perhaps I am nitpicking, but I still think that until a defensive stat can take into account how good or bad a player truly is, then they are all just irrelevant.
    No; you think a defensive statistic is irrelevant unless it completely agrees with your style of thinking.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  10. #25
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    Jeter made a nice error today in case anyone cares. a routine ground ball to his right, but jeter couldnt range to get in front of it, so he back handed it, hurried his throw (w/o a jump) and air mailed it over tex's head.

    a few weeks ago, harold reynolds said on MLB tonight that a lot of IFers will back hand a ball instead of getting in front of it, to make it seem more difficult in case they make an error (he was referring to booting the ball)..... just saying.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by steveshane67 View Post
    As of today, I think most people would agree, that the defensive stats are still well behind the offensive stats. That being said I wouldnt totally disregard them, but, as of today, I would take a scouts opinion on someones defense over using stats.
    Didn't see this post before.

    Which offensive stats are we talking about here exactly?
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    Didn't see this post before.

    Which offensive stats are we talking about here exactly?
    any of them??? It was a general statement about how stats like OPS and ISO and even wOBA are more widely accepted, verifiable, and actually "prove" a players value, while defensive stats have many more retractors. Or to put it another way, IMO, offensive stats would have a much easier time meeting the Frye standard than defensive stats.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by steveshane67 View Post
    any of them??? It was a general statement about how stats like OPS and ISO and even wOBA are more widely accepted, verifiable, and actually "prove" a players value, while defensive stats have many more retractors. Or to put it another way, IMO, offensive stats would have a much easier time meeting the Frye standard than defensive stats.
    Just because they're more widely accepted does not make them more valid statistics. OPS is just bad. It's like fielding percentage. ISO only tells us one thing. wOBA is much better, as are any linear weight-based formulas, but they're still all estimators. Runs Created, Base Runs, ERP, XR, etc., they're all estimators. They don't "prove" a player's value. They will often overvalue certain players and undervalue others.

    Point is, offensive stats aren't that much better than defensive stats. They have their strengths and weaknesses.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    Just because they're more widely accepted does not make them more valid statistics. OPS is just bad. It's like fielding percentage. ISO only tells us one thing. wOBA is much better, as are any linear weight-based formulas, but they're still all estimators. Runs Created, Base Runs, ERP, XR, etc., they're all estimators. They don't "prove" a player's value. They will often overvalue certain players and undervalue others.

    Point is, offensive stats aren't that much better than defensive stats. They have their strengths and weaknesses.
    At the same time, there are more offensive stats that tell us specific things that are useful to gaining an overall picture of a player's value.

    With defense there are only a few that don't really explain anything definitively.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milnertime View Post
    At the same time, there are more offensive stats that tell us specific things that are useful to gaining an overall picture of a player's value.

    With defense there are only a few that don't really explain anything definitively.
    That is what I was trying to say....

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