You can never tell for sure, I remember Jesus Sanchez was said to be the next Marichial and look how he ended up. It's all a crapshoot. You try to take all logic information and then anaylze it to come up with a likely scenario. So many variables it's not an exact sceince. Sometimes we put emotion into the equation as I did when I said Dan Muprhy would be a batting crown champion. Boy did I get reamed for that. Still possible but it will be difficult if he's coming off the bench and Ike is the starter.