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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by bosox3431 View Post
    Wow. Im starting to get into the sabermetrics and all. I love looking at stats and browsing through them just for the hell of it. But to say someone is a moron because they dont believe in some stat you do is pretty ridiculous. To think your smarter or better then someone because of something like this is ridiculous. Im not even trying to be a dick towards you or anything, but come on now.
    It's not ridiculous. It's reality. There's no way around it. If you're presented with all of the analysis available regarding BABIP, and how pitchers don't have that much control over, and you still refute it, then you (not YOU, obviously =p) are a moron.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
    By you saying that what i said was "extremely hypocritical" you are sugesting that before this post of yours, i said something quite defensive. Well, would you mind teling me what that was?
    Let's see:

    If you really believe that hitters dont have much control over where the ball goes, you need to, well, you need to play a game of baseball.
    I just make a post stating my thoughts that it isnt a reliable stat and you come on in as the big internet tough guy by implying i am a "moron". Do these "sabermetrics" really mean THAT much to you? sorry to have offended you religion...
    Actually, I never referred to you in my first post. It was a general statement. I know it seems that way since my post came right after yours, but I never read your post until right after I submitted my own.



    As for repying to your post.eh..**** that. you guys take these boring statistics WAY too seriously. i mean come on...its a game...America always loved it for its fun and simplicity..something to enjoy..bring people together..baseball isnt supposed to be a giant math class...
    If you really see objective analysis and fun as being mutually exclusive, then that's you. For me, and a large number of people, it only makes it better.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny Krew View Post
    ^That's why career BABIP is important. If Jose Reyes had a BABIP of .220 one year, it would be around .080 difference from his career average. If Giambi had a BABIP of .220, it would be about a .005 difference.
    This is exactly right. Everyone should read this post.

    Although a change in LD can also be explained by these things. Sample size as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
    By you saying that what i said was "extremely hypocritical" you are sugesting that before this post of yours, i said something quite defensive. Well, would you mind teling me what that was? I just make a post stating my thoughts that it isnt a reliable stat and you come on in as the big internet tough guy by implying i am a "moron". Do these "sabermetrics" really mean THAT much to you? sorry to have offended you religion...

    As for repying to your post.eh..**** that. you guys take these boring statistics WAY too seriously. i mean come on...its a game...America always loved it for its fun and simplicity..something to enjoy..bring people together..baseball isnt supposed to be a giant math class...
    You seem to be really interested in this class.

    Quote Originally Posted by bosox3431 View Post
    Wow. Im starting to get into the sabermetrics and all. I love looking at stats and browsing through them just for the hell of it. But to say someone is a moron because they dont believe in some stat you do is pretty ridiculous. To think your smarter or better then someone because of something like this is ridiculous. Im not even trying to be a dick towards you or anything, but come on now.
    When they want to deny something when it's been proven is pretty moronic and ignorant.

    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    here is the thing.... how do you determine where the luck in an at bat begins. What if it was lucky in thr 1st place that it was a line drive off the bat?

    I just don't like these things that try and deal with luck as much as others do.
    That's silly. Over time, you don't get lucky hitting line drives. And this is why using BABIP for hitters isn't the best thing to do. It should make sense that the more line drives you hit the higher your BABIP will be.

    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfan22193 View Post
    I think BABIP has to be combined with LD%, GB%, and FB% to truly ascertain its validity. for example, if a speedy guy is having a bad year offensively and his BABIP is way below league average but his FB% is through the roof then it's not really luck hurting him but his approach (fast guys maximize speed with LD's and GB's). But when BABIP is down but the other three are in line with past results, i think career BABIP is more indicative of future success (as long as it's an appropriate sample size)
    This is correct. That's why eBABIP is used.

    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfan22193 View Post
    ^^For those reasons, I feel much more comfortable determining whether a player is unlucky, lucky, or neither when they have at least around 3 seasons of stats to look at. It's much harder to tell with rookies and second year players, ie jay bruce and his .202 BABIP
    This also makes sense. You make sense. I like you.

  4. #34
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    Along the same lines, you have to look at strikeout numbers and HR's.

    Take Dunn for example:

    321 AB but 105 K's and 24 HR's. This means that his BABIP sample is taken from 192 ABs.

    Now look at Jeter:

    353 AB, 45 K, and 10 HR's. His sample is taken from 288 AB's, a much better sample size.

    This also goes for pitchers.

  5. #35
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    You must also add SF, not that it's that significant of a number.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
    you guys take these boring statistics WAY too seriously. i mean come on...its a game...America always loved it for its fun and simplicity..something to enjoy..bring people together..baseball isnt supposed to be a giant math class...
    But for the people that want to understand how teams win and how to predict who'll win in the future, there's sabermetrics. You don't have to approve of it. If you don't like it, then stay out of this forum.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfan89 View Post
    question, this season daniel murphy's BABIP is .259. is it possible that the low BABIP means murphy has been somewhat unlucky and should turn it around a bit or is it not the case with hitters?
    someone answer my question
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  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfan89 View Post
    someone answer my question


    He doesn't have exactly a large enough sample size to assess.

    While it seems a bit low, he only has a 13.8 LD%, so it's possible that he's just not hitting the ball well enough.

    He had a .386 BABIP with a 21 LD% last year, so who knows. Let the season finish. I'm sure it'll go up a bit.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfan89 View Post
    question, this season daniel murphy's BABIP is .259. is it possible that the low BABIP means murphy has been somewhat unlucky and should turn it around a bit or is it not the case with hitters?
    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantes4Life View Post


    He doesn't have exactly a large enough sample size to assess.

    While it seems a bit low, he only has a 13.8 LD%, so it's possible that he's just not hitting the ball well enough.

    He had a .386 BABIP with a 21 LD% last year, so who knows. Let the season finish. I'm sure it'll go up a bit.
    Heres where people seem to forget how to APPLY BABIP. "We all know" that if someone has been hitting a ton of LD and only has a .259 BABIP, then yes, hes been getting unlucky and suggests his BA will rise in the future. BUT, with someone like murphy, who hasnt been hitting the ball hard, and is not fleet of foot, then you might say hes been luck nuetral, just been hitting a bunch of weak dribbles or cans of corn. A low BABIP does not necessarily equate unluckiness and vice versa.

    One thing people need to realize that whats considered a LD in 1 park is not the same as another. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...-babip-splits/
    you can see theres a great disparity among the ball parks due to individual people recording bias. Im guessing most of that is due to the gray area between LD and FB.

    And a related note, does anyone know how a ball that is hit hard, first bounces just before either 3B or 1B, and rolls to the wall for a double, is supposed to be coded. Is that a LD or GB? Is there supposed to be a standard that defines a LD? I wish there was a hard hit ball coding bc not all LDs are good hits, ie RHB getting jammed and hitting a soft liner to 2nd.
    Last edited by steveshane67; 07-25-2009 at 06:54 PM. Reason: typo

  10. #40
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    This is my first venture into the Saber forum, but something has always puzzled me about BABIP. I've read this thread, and my question was partially answered but I'm still unsure when it comes to a guys career.

    Post by guys like Kenny Krew in this thread have mentioned "career" BABIP and it's use in evaluating a season. I have to admit I still don't quite get it. I've always wondered about guys with low or high BABIP over their career, and this morning I just looked at Figgins who has a career .342 BABIP. I thought, surely these guys aren't "lucky" or "unlucky" their entire career.

    So,

    1 - is the bigger judge the players variance off of their career BABIP, rather than off of a league-wide norm? Essentially . . . seasonal BABIP not in a vacuum???????

    and
    2 - what is the explanation for guys with high or low BABIPs over their career?
    Last edited by RockTheCell; 08-06-2009 at 10:08 AM.

  11. #41
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    You have to understand something. BABIP for hitters is different than BABIP for pitchers. They are related, obviously, but not the same. Pitchers have been found to have pretty much 0 control over their BABIP's, because it can be .340 one year and .240 the next with close to the same defense.

    For hitters, a lot of them have higher BABIP's than .290 for their careers. Part of that is that they are really good: if they have a LD% over 17%, they'll probably have a higher BABIP than .290. The other part is speed, some guys can hit a ****** grounder but run it out anyway - like Figgins.

    Hope that helps.

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  12. #42
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    The reason I hate the stat is because it just doesn't make sense to me that a bunch of statisticians pull a number out of their *ss and say that a player is going to meet that average during the season, and if he doesn't he's lucky/unlucky.

    And another thing is pitchers DO have more control over it than some people give them credit for. If you're jamming hitters with sinkers inside or keeping them off balance with changeups obviously you'll have a lower BABIP...

  13. #43
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    How can you say A) that someone is lucky in the first place or B) he will be or not be lucky next year? It just doesnt make sense at all

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  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by iam brett favre View Post
    B) he will be or not be lucky next year?
    I don't think anyone said this.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rizz View Post
    The reason I hate the stat is because it just doesn't make sense to me that a bunch of statisticians pull a number out of their *ss and say that a player is going to meet that average during the season, and if he doesn't he's lucky/unlucky.
    How do we pull the numbers out of our *****? It's identifying when hits are falling in more than they usually do for a hitter or a pitcher based on what they've done in the past.

    And another thing is pitchers DO have more control over it than some people give them credit for. If you're jamming hitters with sinkers inside or keeping them off balance with changeups obviously you'll have a lower BABIP...
    No; it doesn't mean you'll have a lower BABIP.

    Quote Originally Posted by iam brett favre View Post
    How can you say A) that someone is lucky in the first place or B) he will be or not be lucky next year? It just doesnt make sense at all
    A) By looking at their prior rates.
    B) It's possible, but not probable.
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