Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 81
  1. #16
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Illinois
    Posts
    6,678
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    Well, hitters do have much more control over their BIP.

    A better example would be you as a a pitcher. Even then, though, you have to keep in mind that everything we talk about is relative to major league talent. That is part of the context that is provided. Also, if you went up there and threw some meatballs, they would more than likely either be a )HR or b) a line drive, which does have a high BABIP. The context that does need to be provided is batted ball types, hence why BABIP is better when measured against eBABIP.
    What is eBABIP? It has to do with batted ball types? If it takes forever to explain or whatever I can just try to research it somewhere else.

    But I always think, NL pitcher's probably average what a .200 BABIP or something right? That isn't because they are unlucky. So just from a stats standpoint how can you differentiate between a player that is just bad, or an extremely unlucky player?

    Or is that where the eBABIP comes in?
    In case you weren't aware, there is now a Religion Forum here. All high-quality discussion welcome!

  2. #17
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Maspeth (Queens), NY
    Posts
    29,728
    vCash
    1500
    question, this season daniel murphy's BABIP is .259. is it possible that the low BABIP means murphy has been somewhat unlucky and should turn it around a bit or is it not the case with hitters?
    BRAIN TRUST
    johnnylee722 | MetsFan19 | dwright3b5 | jetsfan89 | Twinke Masta | ritz | MrSexy | jetsfan28


    Charlotte Convicts MLB Re-Draft Clubhouse

    Creed: So hey, I want to set you up with my daughter.
    Jim: Oh, I'm engaged to Pam.
    Creed: I thought you were gay.
    Jim: Then why would you want to set me up with your daughter?
    Creed: I don't know.

  3. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    9,069
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
    As for baseball, anyone who has played realizes that you CAN as a hitter, affect here the ball goes. If you wait on it, you push it opposite field. if you are a little early, you pull it. if its an inside pitch and you try to go oppo, you will likely get jammed. if its an outside pitch, and you try to pull it, you will bloop it or hit something useless. thats why pitchers learn to pitch in spots, why hitters learn to do different things with the ball. BABIP suggests everthing is luck pretty much
    Hitters have quite a bit of control over their BABIP; pitchers don't. BABIP usually doesn't suggest luck with hitters, but it can with pitchers. Pitchers don't have any say in whether or not a ball hit into play is converted into an out or not. They don't have any control over the way the hitter swings.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    5,590
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by hoggin88 View Post
    What is eBABIP? It has to do with batted ball types? If it takes forever to explain or whatever I can just try to research it somewhere else.
    Expected BABIP based on batted ball data. It can be as simple as LD%+.120, or it can be a formula like:

    .75*LD
    +.27*GB
    +.15*FB
    +.02*IF


    But I always think, NL pitcher's probably average what a .200 BABIP or something right?
    Your guess is as good as mine. I have no idea.

    That isn't because they are unlucky. So just from a stats standpoint how can you differentiate between a player that is just bad, or an extremely unlucky player?

    Or is that where the eBABIP comes in?
    Like I've stated, hitters do have much more control over their BABIPs. We expect better hitters to have higher BABIPs. Though, some other factors such as speed do have an influence (Pierre, for example).

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Connecticut
    Posts
    1,915
    vCash
    1500
    ^That's why career BABIP is important. If Jose Reyes had a BABIP of .220 one year, it would be around .080 difference from his career average. If Giambi had a BABIP of .220, it would be about a .005 difference.

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    7
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    You could complain about someone getting defensive, which is extremely hypocritical, or you could reply to my post and get back on topic.
    By you saying that what i said was "extremely hypocritical" you are sugesting that before this post of yours, i said something quite defensive. Well, would you mind teling me what that was? I just make a post stating my thoughts that it isnt a reliable stat and you come on in as the big internet tough guy by implying i am a "moron". Do these "sabermetrics" really mean THAT much to you? sorry to have offended you religion...

    As for repying to your post.eh..**** that. you guys take these boring statistics WAY too seriously. i mean come on...its a game...America always loved it for its fun and simplicity..something to enjoy..bring people together..baseball isnt supposed to be a giant math class...

  7. #22
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    23,335
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
    By you saying that what i said was "extremely hypocritical" you are sugesting that before this post of yours, i said something quite defensive. Well, would you mind teling me what that was? I just make a post stating my thoughts that it isnt a reliable stat and you come on in as the big internet tough guy by implying i am a "moron". Do these "sabermetrics" really mean THAT much to you? sorry to have offended you religion...

    As for repying to your post.eh..**** that. you guys take these boring statistics WAY too seriously. i mean come on...its a game...America always loved it for its fun and simplicity..something to enjoy..bring people together..baseball isnt supposed to be a giant math class...
    And again I ask...if you prefer to remain ignorant, why are you even posting in this forum? There are plenty of people in the main MLB forum who are perfectly content using stuff like RBI and "I watched [insert player or team] play and saw [insert subjective nonsense]" to argue about baseball.

    This forum is for people who care about objective analysis and those who want to learn more about it. You fall into neither category. You're free to do whatever you want within the parameters of PSD's rules, of course. I just question why you'd spend time in a forum discussing **** you don't care about.

  8. #23
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Riverton,il
    Posts
    15,565
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    Yes. Really, if you don't believe in it, then you're a moron. There are a countless number of studies that prove its validity. Not to mention the examples we see every season.

    You need to have a nice, long conversation with logic, facts, and statistics if you don't believe that pitchers don't really have that much control over their BABIPs.
    Wow. Im starting to get into the sabermetrics and all. I love looking at stats and browsing through them just for the hell of it. But to say someone is a moron because they dont believe in some stat you do is pretty ridiculous. To think your smarter or better then someone because of something like this is ridiculous. Im not even trying to be a dick towards you or anything, but come on now.

  9. #24
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    23,335
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by bosox3431 View Post
    Wow. Im starting to get into the sabermetrics and all. I love looking at stats and browsing through them just for the hell of it. But to say someone is a moron because they dont believe in some stat you do is pretty ridiculous. To think your smarter or better then someone because of something like this is ridiculous. Im not even trying to be a dick towards you or anything, but come on now.
    The way I look at it is, if something has been demonstrably proven many times over and someone still refuses to acknowledge it...well, they pretty much are an idiot. That applies to everything, not just baseball. I have little respect or patience for a person who, when confronted with logic, reason and fact, effectively places fingers in his ears and goes "LALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU LALALALALA!"

  10. #25
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    A place called Paradise
    Posts
    13,736
    vCash
    1500
    here is the thing.... how do you determine where the luck in an at bat begins. What if it was lucky in thr 1st place that it was a line drive off the bat?

    I just don't like these things that try and deal with luck as much as others do.
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  11. #26
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Posts
    655
    vCash
    1500
    I think BABIP has to be combined with LD%, GB%, and FB% to truly ascertain its validity. for example, if a speedy guy is having a bad year offensively and his BABIP is way below league average but his FB% is through the roof then it's not really luck hurting him but his approach (fast guys maximize speed with LD's and GB's). But when BABIP is down but the other three are in line with past results, i think career BABIP is more indicative of future success (as long as it's an appropriate sample size)

  12. #27
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Posts
    655
    vCash
    1500
    ^^For those reasons, I feel much more comfortable determining whether a player is unlucky, lucky, or neither when they have at least around 3 seasons of stats to look at. It's much harder to tell with rookies and second year players, ie jay bruce and his .202 BABIP

  13. #28
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    23,335
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    here is the thing.... how do you determine where the luck in an at bat begins. What if it was lucky in thr 1st place that it was a line drive off the bat?

    I just don't like these things that try and deal with luck as much as others do.
    Fair enough. You are expressing concerns with a coherent post, as opposed to nonsensical ramblings about baseball not being a math class. Have you read up on BABIP at all, like the methodology and all that? If not, it would address these questions and hopefully help you.

    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfan22193 View Post
    I think BABIP has to be combined with LD%, GB%, and FB% to truly ascertain its validity. for example, if a speedy guy is having a bad year offensively and his BABIP is way below league average but his FB% is through the roof then it's not really luck hurting him but his approach (fast guys maximize speed with LD's and GB's). But when BABIP is down but the other three are in line with past results, i think career BABIP is more indicative of future success (as long as it's an appropriate sample size)
    And that's why you have to look at everything before you can make conclusions. So many people try to make the claim that sabermetric supporters believe there's some kind of almighty, magical stat that tells you everything there is to know. This is ****ing dumb and no one has ever said that. You also need sufficient data samples, as you pointed out in your other post.

    Honestly, I don't understand why so many people have such vehement objections to sabermetrics. A lot of it just seems like common sense to me.
    Last edited by TheRuckus; 07-20-2009 at 11:23 PM.

  14. #29
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Riverton,il
    Posts
    15,565
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by TheRuckus View Post
    The way I look at it is, if something has been demonstrably proven many times over and someone still refuses to acknowledge it...well, they pretty much are an idiot. That applies to everything, not just baseball. I have little respect or patience for a person who, when confronted with logic, reason and fact, effectively places fingers in his ears and goes "LALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU LALALALALA!"
    Yea I understand that. I wasnt trying to be a dick or anything. I just didnt see a need for it really.

  15. #30
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    23,335
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by bosox3431 View Post
    Yea I understand that. I wasnt trying to be a dick or anything. I just didnt see a need for it really.
    Nah, I gotcha. Besides, everyone knows Seamhead is a dick.

Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •