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  1. #1
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    Do You Believe in BABIP?

    BABIP is probably my favorite stat for predicting regressions and break-out seasons. I am a believer that in fact, some players are luckier than others.

    It helps predict sell-high players, and buy-low players. I got Brandon Inge this year in one of the last rounds, because I knew he would break out.

    Do you guys like it? This is my first post in sabermetrics.

  2. #2
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    I dont trust it at all. I think its unreliable. I see why people use it but when it gets down to it, its just not accurate. The batters and pitchers have a lot of influence on where the ball goes, which this stat ignores.

  3. #3
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    Yes. Really, if you don't believe in it, then you're a moron. There are a countless number of studies that prove its validity. Not to mention the examples we see every season.

    You need to have a nice, long conversation with logic, facts, and statistics if you don't believe that pitchers don't really have that much control over their BABIPs.
    Last edited by Seamhead; 07-20-2009 at 04:04 PM.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    Yes. Really, if you don't believe in it, then you're a moron. There are a countless number of studies that prove its validity. Not to mention the examples we see every season.

    You need to have a nice, long conversation with logic, facts, and statistics if you don't believe that hitters don't really have that much control over their BABIPs.
    No thanks, im not much interested in having a long talk about statistics. I'd rather watch a game, because baseball is enteraining, not math class.

    If you really believe that hitters dont have much control over where the ball goes, you need to, well, you need to play a game of baseball.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
    No thanks, im not much interested in having a long talk about statistics. I'd rather watch a game, because baseball is enteraining, not math class.

    If you really believe that hitters dont have much control over where the ball goes, you need to, well, you need to play a game of baseball.
    You don't seem to know that much about Baseball. Or math, either.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
    No thanks, im not much interested in having a long talk about statistics. I'd rather watch a game, because baseball is enteraining, not math class.

    If you really believe that hitters dont have much control over where the ball goes, you need to, well, you need to play a game of baseball.
    I meant to say PITCHERS where I said HITTERS. My mistake.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    You don't seem to know that much about Baseball. Or math, either.
    Im not talkin about math. This is the summer, and its baseball...you know..the sport...

    As for baseball, anyone who has played realizes that you CAN as a hitter, affect here the ball goes. If you wait on it, you push it opposite field. if you are a little early, you pull it. if its an inside pitch and you try to go oppo, you will likely get jammed. if its an outside pitch, and you try to pull it, you will bloop it or hit something useless. thats why pitchers learn to pitch in spots, why hitters learn to do different things with the ball. BABIP suggests everthing is luck pretty much

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
    No thanks, im not much interested in having a long talk about statistics. I'd rather watch a game, because baseball is enteraining, not math class.
    Wow! This is the most original, well-reasoned statement I've ever heard in my life. Kudos to you.

    If you're not interested in discussing statistics, then what the hell are you doing in the Sabermetrics forum?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
    Im not talkin about math. This is the summer, and its baseball...you know..the sport...

    As for baseball, anyone who has played realizes that you CAN as a hitter, affect here the ball goes. If you wait on it, you push it opposite field. if you are a little early, you pull it. if its an inside pitch and you try to go oppo, you will likely get jammed. if its an outside pitch, and you try to pull it, you will bloop it or hit something useless. thats why pitchers learn to pitch in spots, why hitters learn to do different things with the ball. BABIP suggests everthing is luck pretty much
    In the case of hitters, it is pretty clear that their particular skills do have a big effect on balls in play.

    Hitters? Not so much. There should pretty much be no argument when it comes to pitchers. Can they do some things to affect balls in play? Of course, but a lot still depends on external factors, such as defense.

  10. #10
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    Whats the matter with everyone? WHy does everone get so defensive about this stuff? Its a ****in sports forum..

  11. #11
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    You could complain about someone getting defensive, which is extremely hypocritical, or you could reply to my post and get back on topic.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    In the case of hitters, it is pretty clear that their particular skills do have a big effect on balls in play.

    Hitters? Not so much. There should pretty much be no argument when it comes to pitchers. Can they do some things to affect balls in play? Of course, but a lot still depends on external factors, such as defense.
    Did you mean pitchers again?

  13. #13
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    Yes.

  14. #14
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    The problem I have with BABIP is that it's not often given with much context. If I got in the batter's box in a MLB game, my BABIP would probably be like .010 or something ridiculous. That wouldn't mean I was the unluckiest player of all time, it is just a result of me sucking.

    A bad hitter might be hitting weak pop ups and grounders, and therefore has a low BABIP. I do like to look at a player's BABIP on line drives though. If you're hitting line drives, you are hitting the ball well. And if your line drives aren't dropping in, you are getting unlucky.

    And anyone please feel free to tell me why I'm wrong if you'd like.
    In case you weren't aware, there is now a Religion Forum here. All high-quality discussion welcome!

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by hoggin88 View Post
    The problem I have with BABIP is that it's not often given with much context. If I got in the batter's box in a MLB game, my BABIP would probably be like .010 or something ridiculous. That wouldn't mean I was the unluckiest player of all time, it is just a result of me sucking.
    Well, hitters do have much more control over their BIP.

    A better example would be you as a a pitcher. Even then, though, you have to keep in mind that everything we talk about is relative to major league talent. That is part of the context that is provided. Also, if you went up there and threw some meatballs, they would more than likely either be a )HR or b) a line drive, which does have a high BABIP. The context that does need to be provided is batted ball types, hence why BABIP is better when measured against eBABIP.

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