David Wright's Season

[ritz]

I think he's not hitting HR's because he's trying for the batting title, which isn't smart since we need power.

[TheRuckus]

It might be time to change that avatar, man.

[ritz]

I'm lazy

[steveshane67]

But to answer the question, Wright's HR drop will likely just affect his batting average, not BABIP.

Couldnt one assume that wrights lack of HRs means he hitting more balls hard that just dont quite make it out of the ballpark and thus become 2Bs and 3Bs, which would raise his BABIP. Lets say he has 10 balls that "should" have been HRs and are now non HR XBHs.

this year
AB 354
H 112
HR 5
K 93
SF 2

"should be" this year
AB 354
H 112
HR 15
K 93
SF 2

this year BABIP .415
should be BABIP .391

so those 10 less HRs which are now 2Bs and 3Bs, has caused his BABIP to be .0236 higher.

another reason for his high BABIP (compared to career norms) is his abnormally (hopefully) high K rate.

[jetsfan89]

If that were the case I think his ISO and SLG would only slightly decrease from his norm. They are waaay down.

[steveshane67]

If that were the case I think his ISO and SLG would only slightly decrease from his norm. They are waaay down.

I think this is in regard to my post, my apologies if it wasnt.

Wright is on pace to have a "normal" # of hits this year 192/605 AB as per espn, compared to 189/626 and 196/604 the last 2 years. BUT his XBH are down this year, that explains the lower ISO and SLG, not the lack of these "missing 10 HR"

Just hypothesizing right now, but suppose those 10 deep "shoulda been HR" fly balls fall just short of the wall and land for 2Bs and 3Bs, not a far reaching assumption. But suppose wrights power in general is down this year. Now instead of hitter a laser to the gap that rolls to the wall for a 2B or 3B, or smoking a ball down the line for a 2B, its just a descent LD that is cutoff by the OF and wright is held to a 1B.

Based off the fact that wright is still amassing the same # of hits as his career numbers suggest, but hes only on pace for 57 XBH this year, as opposed to 77 and 73 the prior 2 years, that explains the low ISO
and SLG.


and besides, i was just trying to answer the question in the OP which no one else bothered to do, when all it took was a quick 2 minute calculation.

[Gigantes4Life]

I think this is in regard to my post, my apologies if it wasnt.

Wright is on pace to have a "normal" # of hits this year 192/605 AB as per espn, compared to 189/626 and 196/604 the last 2 years. BUT his XBH are down this year, that explains the lower ISO and SLG, not the lack of these "missing 10 HR"

No, the only reason his XBH are down is because of the lack of HR. He's on pace for 42 doubles again, for the third straight year. His low ISO and SLG is absolutely explained by the lack of HR.

Just hypothesizing right now, but suppose those 10 deep "shoulda been HR" fly balls fall just short of the wall and land for 2Bs and 3Bs, not a far reaching assumption. But suppose wrights power in general is down this year. Now instead of hitter a laser to the gap that rolls to the wall for a 2B or 3B, or smoking a ball down the line for a 2B, its just a descent LD that is cutoff by the OF and wright is held to a 1B.

Based off the fact that wright is still amassing the same # of hits as his career numbers suggest, but hes only on pace for 57 XBH this year, as opposed to 77 and 73 the prior 2 years, that explains the low ISO
and SLG.

Well if "10 of those balls fall just short" that simply shows a lack of power.

And like I said, the reason he's only on pace for 57 XBH is because he's on pace for being 20 HR short of his norm.

and besides, i was just trying to answer the question in the OP which no one else bothered to do, when all it took was a quick 2 minute calculation.

His BABIP is still too high most likely. And it's not necessarily because of the lack of power, but you could be right.

[steveshane67]

Well if "10 of those balls fall just short" that simply shows a lack of power.

And like I said, the reason he's only on pace for 57 XBH is because he's on pace for being 20 HR short of his norm.

I dont think I correctly conveyed my point in my last post. I think everyone realizes that wright is having a normal year as far as hits are concerned but below average in terms of power.

the "20 HR" shortage is being misconstrued and his current doubles pace is being misconstrued. What I believe you and another poster are thinking is that these "missing" 20 HR are being "found" as singles. What Im trying to say is that 20 of his doubles should be HRs, and 20 of his singles should be doubles. Its not an all or nothing (1b vs HR) thing, its a overall lack of power that wrights experiencing (or at least im hypothesizing).

you can hit a hard ground ball and get a double, but if you dont hit that ground ball hard enough (enough that the OF cant cut it off) it will only be a single. I dont know if theres a way to measure it, but I would bet that the "average batted ball speed" wright is hitting this year is lower than past seasons.

take a look at rafael palmeiro, from 88-94 (im guessing those were the clean years) he average 38 2Bs+3Bs and 19 HRs for 57 XBHs. from 95-03 (his "juiced" years) he averaged 32 and 41 for 73 XBHs. clearly more of his singles were becoming doubles during the juiced years, its not just a case of only doubles become HRs when you hit for more power. By your rationale, palmeiro should have only hit 16 2Bs and 3Bs and 41 Hrs (57 XBHs) during his juiced years.

Edit-and for all you naysayers, palmeiro actually had more hits/yr during his clean years than during his juiced years which only goes to further prove my point

[OC Knights #11]

Besides the power, he is still having a great year.

[steveshane67]

Besides the power, he is still having a great year.

I dont watch as many met games as I would like, but his RBI #s are down this year (yes Im fully aware of how sabr ppl feel about rbis), I know he sucked last year with RISP, and he drove in reyes a ton of times (i believe most R/RBI combo in MLB). maybe hes just not getting a lot of RBI opps, i dont know, but its gotta be hard to drive in 100 with < 10 HRs.

His year would be great but seeing as how hes supposed to be the only source of power (due to injuries and whatnot) its kinda disappointing that hes not driving the ball and driving in more runs.

and no need to bash me for my RBI thoughts on this thread, lets try to stick somewhat to the original premise. feel free to make a new thread if you need to.

[Sick Of It All]

I dont watch as many met games as I would like, but his RBI #s are down this year (yes Im fully aware of how sabr ppl feel about rbis), I know he sucked last year with RISP, and he drove in reyes a ton of times (i believe most R/RBI combo in MLB). maybe hes just not getting a lot of RBI opps, i dont know, but its gotta be hard to drive in 100 with < 10 HRs.

His year would be great but seeing as how hes supposed to be the only source of power (due to injuries and whatnot) its kinda disappointing that hes not driving the ball and driving in more runs.

and no need to bash me for my RBI thoughts on this thread, lets try to stick somewhat to the original premise. feel free to make a new thread if you need to.

with misp he has hit .333/.426/.472 which is at a better rate his overall numbers of .317/.409/.454.

Take a step further and last year he hit .243/.328/.376 with misp.

[cambovenzi]

has anyone ever thought that maybe his approach this year isnt trying to hit as many HRs as in the past?
you do not need 30+ hrs to have a good season.

sure he hasnt been able to hit some things out that he has in the past.
despite that, he has been able to put the ball in places to get hits and get on base more.
its not just "luck" in my opinion.

[Driven]

has anyone ever thought that maybe his approach this year isnt trying to hit as many HRs as in the past?

then he's an idiot.

[Milnertime]

has anyone ever thought that maybe his approach this year isnt trying to hit as many HRs as in the past?
you do not need 30+ hrs to have a good season.

sure he hasnt been able to hit some things out that he has in the past.
despite that, he has been able to put the ball in places to get hits and get on base more.
its not just "luck" in my opinion.

Usually, if that's the case, the K rate would decrease as well as the HRs.

His is up, meaning his bat speed is likely slower than it has been in the past, or he's trying to hit more HR and it's messing his swing up.

As for "getting on base more," his AVG and OBP are almost exactly the same as what they were in 2007, only his ISO has fallen off the earth. His high BABIP is what is keeping him even close to the same value he had for the past few years.

He's kept it up for a long time, so I don't know if it's him being extremely lucky or him just not hitting the ball as hard this season and finding holes due to defensive positioning.

It's also worth pointing out that he's been making less contact in general this year. He's down 3% from last year overall and he's having trouble with the fastball.

[Rique]

has anyone ever thought that maybe his approach this year isnt trying to hit as many HRs as in the past?
you do not need 30+ hrs to have a good season.

sure he hasnt been able to hit some things out that he has in the past.
despite that, he has been able to put the ball in places to get hits and get on base more.
its not just "luck" in my opinion.

He's having a bad season whatever his approach is it isn't working.