David Wright's Season

[poodski]

There is a school of thought that believes that if Wright's power numbers were in line with his career average, he would be flirting with a .400 BA season. Meaning, if he was striking out less and hitting consistently for power as he was in the past.

Most likely. If you figure he would probably have another 10 HRs or so, and then about 26 less strike outs.

So 304 ABs-15 HR-58 KO's= 231*.437= 101 + 15 HR = 116 Hits / 304 ABs = .381 average

So a 400 average still isnt quite there.

[MelkyNYY]

David Wright would easily be having an MVP season with the amount of luck he has had this year. And in short, to answer Driven's question, HRs have a lot to do with BABIP because it keeps the number relatively stagnant, because there is no luck in hitting homeruns. Making you less lucky, or just as lucky as you were i suppose.

And great analysis poodski.

[Driven]

\Anyways, HR do not have an effect on BABIP, simply batting avergae. Every HR has a 1.000 BA obviously, so the more HR the higher your BA will be without affecting BABIP.

Yeah I get this, but do you think there is a correlation between a high BABIP and low power?

Wright's just been lucky, a tool I used to use a lot on THT is called PrOPS. It adjusts OPS based on LD, GB, etc. and home park. It's a bit like tRA in a way that it uses those events, but much less accurate since hitters have more control over their BABIP than pitchers. PrOPS has Wright at .766, suggesting that he's been lucky. Since Wright's usually a high BABIP guy, you could probably safely add .100 or so points to that OPS (as his BABIP is usually about .50 higher than average, so .50 to OBP and .50 to SLG). But, in comparison, Wright last year was at .956.

But to answer the question, Wright's HR drop will likely just affect his batting average, not BABIP.

Yeah like I said, I wanted to see if there was a correlation between the two, not if HR affects BABIP. I guess I just worded it wrong. My main question in my head is what to make of his season. He's been completely lucky with his BABIP, but I don't know what to make of his power.

Basically, I wanted to know if Wright's freakishly low power numbers were a product of his high BABIP.

[MelkyNYY]

Sort of. See, the less homeruns he hits the more balls he hits in play and the better chance he has of being lucky. So if he is extremely lucky, he could have an insanely high BABIP like he has had this year.

But less homeruns exposes you to being less lucky as well.

It goes both ways. I hope this made sense.

[Driven]

Yeah, I get it. Thanks for the info guys.

[Gigantes4Life]

Yeah I get this, but do you think there is a correlation between a high BABIP and low power?



Yeah like I said, I wanted to see if there was a correlation between the two, not if HR affects BABIP. I guess I just worded it wrong. My main question in my head is what to make of his season. He's been completely lucky with his BABIP, but I don't know what to make of his power.

Basically, I wanted to know if Wright's freakishly low power numbers were a product of his high BABIP.

I guess I thought you wanted to know what to think of his season with the high BABIP. Anyways, I doubt there's any real correlation. The only one I could see is that HR hitters are typically "big guys" and might be slower thus fewer infield hits. Dunn, Burrell, Giambi, etc.

But no, I don't believe that HR and BABIP have any correlation, at least direct correlation. BABIP simply depends on the type of hitter you are speed, and ballpark (infield, Fenway, etc.).

[poodski]

Correlation between HRs and BABIP in 2008 for players with over 500 PA was -.06349

So I would say there is no correlation.

[viktor06]

he just sucks...he cant hit fastballs lol, just watch the videos when hes trying to hit josh johnson, javy vazquez, kershaw...anyone with 95mph fb just pound the zone and you will likely k him

[Rique]

His bat speed is just sooooo slow this season. No one will question his season when he's batting .305 wit no power it will just be a bad season

[ZHAKIDD532]

It's not 100% luck, but it's probably 80%-90%. As I type this, Wright bloops a ball into shallow right-center, Dickerson coming as close to catching a ball as you can without actually catching it.

But yeah, he's having a lucky season to a certain extent.

[bravesfan22193]

Can't some of his power loss be attributed to the new stadium they have? not exactly hitter friendly

[Gigantes4Life]

Some of it? Sure. But he's on pace to hitting less than 10 HR.

[VenezuelanMet]

he just sucks...he cant hit fastballs lol, just watch the videos when hes trying to hit josh johnson, javy vazquez, kershaw...anyone with 95mph fb just pound the zone and you will likely k him

This is spot on, I'm of the opinion that the eye and memory are not accurate, but it seriously seems like Wright can't hit a fastball this season, his high BABIP must be from bloops he barely hits haha.

Very weird season, no doubt, at least his wOBA is still good (10 points below career number though, just proves how good he has been) his power outage can't be fully attributed to Citi Field, IMO.

I'm not really sure what to think of this season yet, i'll give it lot of thought on the winter that's for sure.

[Driven]

Wright has 3 HRs at home and 2 on the road, although his road SLG is better by a decent margin.

[JohanTheGreat]

Can't some of his power loss be attributed to the new stadium they have? not exactly hitter friendly

not exactly, because other teams have come in and hit home runs. I think he's not hitting HR's because he's trying for the batting title, which isn't smart since we need power.